rrHocrb Ha3brBaercfl ycJroBHofr w o603Hasaercfl p (BlA), B erou cflyrraeBeporrHocrb coBnaAeHHr co6urafi .B nocne A--nbipazfircf qepes
P (AB): P (A).P (B/A).
IIpoBeAeM ropII3oHraJIbHylo JrHHrrro qepe3 Becb rpa$ux. OrnoxHu BBepx
H BHH3 OT X BerUqUHy cpeAHeKBaAparHqecKofo orKJroHeHkr.fl, orc Hrrepe3
9TI,I TOIIKIZ TIPOBCACM TOPIZ3OHTA"TIbHbIC JILIHHKI, !.OXASAHO, IITO B 3AIXTPHXO.
saHlrofi roJloce Mex{Ay *c*,HaxoAgrcs 6o.nee 68% scex rrileHoB psA; (,y).
cneAosare.[bHo, ecJrur pnp,6nutoK K cr{MMerpar{Hor,ry, ro 6onee oazo uru-
HoB?flAa orK.[oHflIorcff or x Ha Be,nuqLrHy, He npeBbluarcilIyrc tor.llpe4no,ro)KuM, rrro r{acJro rureHoB p'flr,a l0b, a nor"uaa"il ora"o",
orK/roHflIollluxcr or x Ha BeJrkrqaHy _a*,68. Torla BepoflTHocrb orK"[oHe-
HrItI xi or x Ha BeruqI,IHy *orc, LUIr4 BepoflTHocrb outu6xw. 4-ox, paBHa:
P r:ffi : 0,68.
Ec.nu or"rox(HTb na rpaQaKe BBepx H BHH3 or feeflHq,Hy *2o* r{ npo-BecrH l{epe3 3-TH TotIJ{H ropn3oHTaJrbubre ilnHHH, To Mex{Ay HHM2 yxie 6yierHaxoAr4Tbcs 6o"ryee 95% ecex q,rreHoB pn1a, TO ecrb BepoflTHoC6 OUiU6NA
t2o* cocTaBr4T:
Pr:ffi:0,95.
Mary4y. ilr4HuflM]a, npoBeAeHHblNrpr qepe3 rorrKr4 -F3o' HaxoAr.trc n np1-MepHo 99% scex qrreHoB prAa; 9g% q.'reHoBpflAa Moryr orK.rroHflrbcfl or
.r He 6onee ueu Ha-F3o'*. BeporrHocru oua6xu -F3o" 6y4er:
P":#:0,99.
-3o,, <(xi-i) ( *8o".
:d:
(28)
flycrr Ar, Ar. ..Ar- HecoBMecr'Mbre co6rnvR H co6urze ^B voNer ocy-IqecrBJlfiTbcfl rorlbKo c .AHI4M II3 Ha.x. lo.au uufb"t"ocrn co6rp un B paB*acyMMe npoa3BeA ewufr BeposrHocrefi co6n;'i; i Ha ycJroBHyro Bepoff r'ocrbco6rttas B, To ecrb
p (B): p (A,).p (BtAt)+ p (A,).p (BtA,)+ ...+
+ P (A,).P(BtA,):f P @).p @t,q). Qs)
9ra sopruyra Ha3brBaercfl Qopnny"rroa iornon BeposrHocr'.
$ g. flpannno crrrM
BoslNrela xaxofi-uz6yau rr{ApoJrorzuecxarl pa4:
xrxzxs. . .xn.
onpe4enanr crar,cr,qecKue xapar{Tep r4cr.Kt4 B3flToro pflAai
H npeAnoJro)r(HM, qro pffA 6nHsox K CHMMerpurrHoMy, TO ecrl c"*0.llpe4cran'M ptA .paQuvecKH, oTK'rarbrBar no ocn opAr4Har 3HarreH'fltc, no ocu a6cu,cc - BpeMr T (puc. 2). r{epes rorrKy } ua oc, opAHHar
#j
.l.l
I
s]2' X;-
y- I
n i Cx:
*J
+26x
*6r
E
-6r
-26x
3ro lrepaBeHcrBo onpeAe/rfler BerTr4 rrfiHy pacxolKAeHlrf xi or,r, npeAenbl
xone6aHHfl xi tro cpaBHeHHrc c x. Bupaxenze (30) Mox{Horun".ui, TaK:
(xi-3o*) < x 1(xi+3o,).
(30)
(31)
flpanaa tlacrb aroro HepaBeHcrBa - (xi*3o*) .- BeJrHrrHHz BcerAa noJro-
)KIITeJIbHan. B rv4p oIIotHr4 i - senuqnHa rox{e o6ssarenbHo rro"[o)KareJrb-Haa (pacxoA BoAbr, MoAyJrb croKa, ocaAKH a r. a.).Ann to.o uroobr B Bbr-
palKeHHH (31) x 6stno noJlolKHTe,rrlHorl Be,rnuuuofi, ueo6xoAuirao, rrroou
6stna floJlox{HTenlgor? JIeBaf qacrb HepaBeFIcrBa, To ecrb
xi-3or>0,
xi) 3o*.
l6
-3
Puc 2. Cxeua K rlorrcHeHHrc npaBuJra curM.
MJTIA
17