TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia 
Part I  -  Execut ive Sum m ary &  Clim ate Change  
22  
 
 
Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ1-8. Ƚɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɟɜɵɛɪɨɫɵ GHG (ɜȽɬCO2-ɷɤɜ) ɜɨɬɫɭɬɫɬɜɢɟɫɬɪɚɬɟɝɢɢɜɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ 
ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ ( ɫɥɟɜɚ): ɢɥɥɸɫɬɪɚɰɢɢ ɲɟɫɬɢ SRES ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɟɜ  ( ɰɜɟɬɧɵɟ ɥɢɧɢɢ ) ɢ 80+ti 
ɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɢɥnyɣɞɢɚɩɚɡɨɧɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɟɜɨɩɭɛɥɢɤɨɜɚɧɧɵɣ  ɧɚɱɢɧɚɹɫ SRES ( ɢ ɩɨɫɥɟ SRES ) 
ɫɟɪɨɟ ɩɨɥɟ). ɉɪɚɜɚɹɮɢɝɭɪɚ: ɋɩɥɨɲɧɵɟ ɥɢɧɢɢ ɩɨɤɚɡɵɜɚɸɬ ɧɟɫɤɨɥɶɤɨ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ  
ɫɪɟɞɧɢɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɝɨ ɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɹ ɞɥɹ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɟɜ A2, A1 ɢ B1. Ɋɨɡɨɜɚɹ ɥɢɧɢɹ 
ɢɡɨɛɪɚɠɚɟɬ ɚɥɶɬɟɪɧɚɬɢɜɭ , ɜ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɣ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɧɵɟ ɤɨɧɰɟɧɬɪɚɰɢɢ ɨɫɬɚɸɬɫɹ  
ɧɟɢɡɦɟɧɧɵɦɢ ɧɚ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ 2000 ɝɨɞɚ.  ɉɨɥɨɫɵ ɜ ɩɪɚɜɨɣ ɱɚɫɬɢ ɪɢɫɭɧɤɚ ɩɨɤɚɡɵɜɚɸɬ  
ɧɚɢɥɭɱɲɭɸɨɰɟɧɤɭ (ɫɩɥɨɲɧɚɹɥɢɧɢɹɜɤɚɠɞɨɣɩɨɥɨɫɟ) ɢɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɵɣɞɢɚɩɚɡɨɧ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɣ 
ɨɰɟɧɢɜɚɟɬɫɹ ɩɨ ɲɟɫɬɢ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɹɦ SRES ɦɚɪɤɟɪɚ 2090-2099 ɝɝ. ȼɫɟ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ  
ɨɬɧɨɫɹɬɫɹɤɩɟɪɢɨɞɭ 1980-1999ɝɝ. (ɆȽɗɂɄ2007). 
 
1 .5 . ǸȈȏțȒȘțȗȕȍȕȐȍȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝșȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ 
 
ǷȍȘȍȝȖȌ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ Ȑȏ ȒȘțȗȕȖȑ ȘȍȠȍȚȒȐ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȝ  
ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ Ȓ  0,2°  șȍȚȒȍ ȉȣȓȖ șȌȍȓȈȕȖ ȗțȚȍȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ  
ȊȣșȖȒȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ  (0.2°  *  0.2° ) ȕȈȉȖȘȈ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȕȈ  
ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȧȝ. ǶȞȍȕȒȈ ȊȍȓȐȟȐȕȣ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȉȣȓȐ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȣ ȕȈ ȔȍȚȖȌȍ , 
ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖȔȒȈȒ " ȌȍȓȤȚȈȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ" ( Arnell, 1996) , ȋȌȍȊȍȓȐȟȐȕȈȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ 
ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȘȈȏȕȐȞȈ ȔȍȎȌț ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȍȔ ȔȖȌȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ Ȑ  
șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȔȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȍȋȖ. ȀȈȋȐ, ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȧȚȣȍȊȘȈȏțȒȘțȗȕȍȕȐȧȉȣȓȐ:  
1. ǸȈșȟȍȚ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ șȘȍȌȕȍȑ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ Ȑ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ ȖȚȒȓȖȕȍȕȐȧ  
ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ Ȑ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ȒȈȎȌȖȋȖ ȔȍșȧȞȈ, ȔȍȎȌț ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȤȕȣȔȐ,  ȚȍȒțȡȐȔȐ 
(1971- 2000) ȐșȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȔȐȊȉțȌțȡȍȍ (2046- 2065);  
  2. ǸȈșșȟȍȚȕȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȉȣȓȐ ȌȖȉȈȊȓȍȕȣ Ȓ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȔ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧȔ    
ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘ Ȑ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ Ȋ 2001-2010 ȋȋ  Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȧ 2011-
2050 ȋȋ. 
ǩȣȓȐ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȣ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȈȉșȖȓȦȚȕȖȑ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ  ( Ȋ ȋȘȈȌțșȈȝ ȗȖ  
ǾȍȓȤșȐȦ),  ȈȚȈȒȎȍȖșȈȌȒȐșȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȍșȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍȔ (% ). 
 
Ǭȓȧ ȚȖȋȖ , ȟȚȖȉȣ țȟȍșȚȤ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȐ șțȚȖȟȕȣȝ  
ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȊȉțȌțȡȍȔȒȓȐȔȈȚȍ , ȔȣȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȓȐȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ  ȍȎȍȔȍșȧȟȕțȦ 
șȘȍȌȕȦȦ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘț Ȑ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ ȖȚȒȓȖȕȍȕȐȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ. ǹțȚȖȟȕȣȍ 
ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ ( Tske) ȉȣȓȐ ȘȈșșȟȐȚȈȕȣ ȗȖ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȔ  (2001- 2010) 
ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧȔȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ ( Tpre) ȗȖȜȖȘȔțȓȍ,