TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia 
Part I  -  Execut ive Sum m ary &  Clim ate Change  
21  
 
ɫɤɨɧɰɟɧɬɪɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɟɩɨ A2, A1 ɢ B1 ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɹɦɩɨɤɚɡɚɧɵɧɚ  ǼȐȋțȘȍ 1-7. ɉɪɢ 
ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɢB1, ɦɢɪɨɜɚɹ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɤɚ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɚ ɧɚ ɭɫɬɨɣɱɢɜɨɟ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɟ ɢ 
ɪɨɫɬ ɧɚɫɟɥɟɧɢɹ ɜ ɦɢɪɟ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɜɵɪɚɜɧɢɜɚɬɶɫɹ .  ɉɪɢ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɢ Ⱥ 2 
ɩɨɬɪɟɛɢɬɟɥɶɫɤɨɟ ɨɛɳɟɫɬɜɨ, ɜ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɦ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ ɜ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɦ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞɢɬɫɹ ɡɚ  
ɫɱɟɬɢɫɤɨɩɚɟɦɨɝɨɬɨɩɥɢɜɚ  (ɱɬɨɩɪɢɜɨɞɢɬɤɜɵɫɨɤɢɦɜɵɛɪɨɫɚɦ ) ɢɧɚɫɟɥɟɧɢɟɜ  
ɦɢɪɟ ɛɭɞɭɬ ɛɵɫɬɪɨ ɪɚɫɬɢ . ɋɰɟɧɚɪɢɣ A1B ɥɟɠɢɬ ɦɟɠɞɭ A2 ɢ B1. Ɉɰɟɧɤɢ 
ɤɨɧɰɟɧɬɪɚɰɢɢ ɋɈ2 ɜ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɟ ɞɨɫɬɢɝɧɟɬ ɜ 2100 ɝɨɞɭ  ɞɢɚɩɚɡɨɧɚ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɟɜ 
B1 ɢ A2, ɢ ɞɨɫɬɢɝɧɭɬ ɢɡ 550 ɱɚɫɬɟɣ ɧɚ ɦɢɥɥɢɨɧ ɞɨ 850 ɱɚɫɬɟɣ ɧɚ ɦɢɥɥɢɨɧ, 
ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ. 
 
 
Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ 1-7. a) ɜɵɛɪɨɫɵ CO2ɢɛ) ɫɨɜɨɤɭɩɧɚɹɤɨɧɰɟɧɬɪɚɰɢɹɋɈ2ɜɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɟ SRES 
ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɢA2, A1B ɢ B1 (Nakicenovicetal. 2000). 
 
ǴȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȔȖȍ Ȋ ȥȚȖȔ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ, ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȖ ȕȈ A1B șȞȍȕȈȘȐȐ 
ȊȣȉȘȖșȖȊ. ǷȖ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȦ ȊȣȉȘȖșȖȊ ǨǪ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȘȖșȚ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȑ  
ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣȕȈ 2-3 °  C ȌȖȒȖȕȞȈȥȚȖȋȖșȚȖȓȍȚȐȧ (Figure 1-8).