TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia 
Part I  -  Execut ive Sum m ary &  Clim ate Change  
20  
 
ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍȔȖȋțȚȚȖȓȤȒȖȉȣȚȤȗȘȐȉȓȐȏȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔȐ,  ȈȚȈȒȎȍȐșȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ 
ȔȍȚȖȌȣȐȔȍȦȚșȊȖȐȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȧ. ǵȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȈȧș 
ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐșȞȍȕȈȘȐȧȔȐȔȖȎȍȚȊȒȈȒȖȑȚȖșȚȍȗȍȕȐȉȣȚȤȗȘȐȕȧȚȈȊȖ 
ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȧȕȍȚȖȓȤȒȖȖȌȕț, ȈȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖǴǶǾȊȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ 
ȔȈȚȍȘȐȈȓȈȊȊȖȌȐȔȖȋȖȌȓȧȥȜȜȍȒȚȈȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ. ǪȥȚȖȔȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ  ȔȣȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȓȐ 
ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣȐȏȗȧȚȐȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȝǴǶǾ. 
 
ǵȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ǴǶǾ ȉȣȓȐ ȊȏȧȚȣ ș ȐȕȚȍȘȕȍȚȈ Ȑȏ ȈȘȝȐȊȈ  
ȔțȓȤȚȐ ȔȖȌȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȕȈȉȖȘȈ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ Ȑȏ ǷȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȣ ǪșȍȔȐȘȕȖȋȖ  
ǰșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ DzȓȐȔȈȚȈ  ( ǷǪǰDz) ǷȘȖȍȒȚȈ ǹȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȧȊȏȈȐȔȕȖȋȖ )  
DzȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ǴȖȌȍȓȍȑ  ( ǷǹDzǴ-3). Ǫ ȞȍȓȖȔ ȉȣȓȖ ȏȈȋȘțȎȍȕȖ  19  
ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ . ȅȚȐ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȖȚȕȖșȧȚșȧ Ȓ ȕȈȉȖȘț ǴǶǾ , 
ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȔȣȝ ǴǫȅǰDz ȗȘȐ șȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȐ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȈ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȖȊ, 
ȖȗțȉȓȐȒȖȊȈȕȕȣȝȊ 4- ȔȌȖȒȓȈȌȍȗȖȖȞȍȕȒȍ. ǩȖȓȍȍȗȖȌȘȖȉȕȈȧȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȧȖ 
ȔȖȌȍȓȧȝȗȘȐȊȍȌȍȕȈȊǴǫȅǰDz  (2007) ǺȈȉȓȐȞȈ 8.1. ǰȏ 19 ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ, ȕȈȒȖȕȍȞ, 
ȗȧȚȤ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȉȣȓȐ ȊȣȉȘȈȕȣ Ȍȓȧ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȋ ȌȈȕȕȖȔ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ ( Table 
1-1).  
 
DzȘȐȚȍȘȐȐ ȖȚȉȖȘȈ ȥȚȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ   ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȓȈșȤ Ȋ ȚȖȔ , ȟȚȖ Ȑȝ  
ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ ȉȣȓȖ  1,9°  ȐȓȐ ȊȣȠȍ , Ȉ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȉȣȓȐ  
ȘȖȎȌȍȕȣ Ȋ ȘȈȏȕȣȝ șȚȘȈȕȈȝ . ȅȚȖ ȋȈȘȈȕȚȐȘțȍȚ , ȟȚȖ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ  
ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ șȈȔȖșȚȖȧȚȍȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȔȖȌȍȓȧȔȐ , Ȑ  ȥȚȖȚ ȗțȚȤ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȐȧ  
ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ, ȗțȚȍȔ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȋ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȍ ȥȚȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ  
ȐȏȖȉȘȈȎȍȕȐȑ, ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȍȚ  ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȣȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ. 
 
 
Model  I nstitute, Country  Resolution  
CGCM3(T63) 
DzǾǴǨDz 
DzȈȕȈȌșȒȐȑȞȍȕȚȘ 
ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧȐȈȕȈȓȐȏȈ 
ȗȖȒȓȐȔȈȚț, DzȈȕȈȌȈ 
1.9 Û x 1.9 Û 
CNRM-CM3 
ǵǾǴǰ 
Météo-France, ǼȘȈȕȞȐȧ 1.9 Û x 1.9 Û 
ECHAM5/ MPI-OM 
ǰǴǷǴ 
ǰȕșȚȐȚțȚǴȈȒșȈǷȓȈȕȒȈȗȖ 
ǴȍȚȍȖȘȖȓȖȋȐȐ, ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȧ 
1.5 Û x 1.5 Û 
MIROC3.2(HIRES) 
ǴǴǰDz   
ǾȍȕȚȘȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ 
DzȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝșȐșȚȍȔ 
ǺȖȒȐȑșȒȐȑțȕȐȊȍȘșȐȚȍȚ), 
ȇȗȖȕȐȧ 
1.1 Û x 1.1 Û 
NCAR-CCSM3 
ǹǴDzǹ 
ǵȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȑȞȍȕȚȘȗȖ 
ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȦǨȚȔȖșȜȍȘȣ, 
ǹȀǨ 
 
1.4 Û x 1.4 Û 
 
Ɍɚɛɥɢɰɚ1-1. Ƚɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɟɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɟɦɨɞɟɥɢ, ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɭɟɦɵɟɜɉɪɨɟɤɬɟ. 
 
ɉɪɨɞɨɥɠɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɶ ɮɚɡɵ ɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɹ ɢ ɬɟɦɩɵɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɹ ɛɭɞɭɬ ɡɚɜɢɫɟɬɶ ɨɬ 
ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɢ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɚ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɨɝɟɧɧɵɯ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɨɜ . ȼ ɨɰɟɧɤɚɯ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ  
ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ ɨɛɵɱɧɨ ɩɪɢɤɥɚɞɧɵɯ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɟɜ ɢɡɥɨɠɟɧɵ ɜ  ǴǫȅǰDz ɞɨɤɥɚɞɟ 
(Nakicenovicetal. 2000 ). ȼɵɛɪɨɫɵ CO 2 ɢ ɤɭɦɭɥɹɬɢɜɧɵɟ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɧɵɟ ɋɈ 2ɜ