TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 7 ȊȖșȚȖȒȐȦȋ, ȚȍȔȕȍȔȍȕȍȍ, țșȒȖȘȍȕȐȍȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧȓȍȌȕȐȒȈȉȣȓȖȖȚȔȍȟȍȕȖ Ȋ ȊȖșȚȖȟȕȖȔ ǷȈȔȐȘȍ ș 7,8% ȗȖ șȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȦ ș 1978-1990 ȋȋ. ȌȖ 11,6% ȗȖ șȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȦ ș 1990- 2001 ȋȋ. ȗȍȘȐȖȌȖȔ. dzȍȌȕȐȒȐ ȗȖȚȍȘȧȓȐ 12,6% (0,33% / ȋȖȌ) Ȑȝ Ȋ 1965 ȋ. ȖȉȓȈșȚȐ Ȋ ȗȍȘȐȖȌ 1965-2003 ȋȋ. ǶȌȕȈ Ȑȏ Ȟȍȓȍȑ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȈ ȧȊȐȓȖșȤ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȚȈȧȕȐȧ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ ș ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȒȓȐȔȈȚȈȕȈȋȖȘȕȣȍȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȐ. ǵȖȊȣȍ ȗȘȐȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊȣȍ ȖȏȍȘȈ ȉțȌțȚ șȖȏȌȈȕȣ, ȒȖȋȌȈ, ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ, ȓȍȌȧȕȖȍ ȧȌȘȖ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ șȖȏȌȈșȚ ȏȈȗȘțȌț ȗȍȘȍȌ ȉȣșȚȘȖ ȖȚșȚțȗȈȦȡȐȔȐ ȌȖȓȐȕȕȣȔȐ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈȔȐ. ǺȈȒȐȍȖȏȍȘȈȔȖȋțȚȐȔȍȚȤȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ ȖȉȢȍȔ ȊȖȌȣȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈȘțȝȕȍȚ ȌȈȔȉȈ, ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȖȐȏȖȑȚȐ ȒȈȚȈșȚȘȖȜȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȕȈȊȖȌȕȍȕȐȍ . ǵȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȈ ȏ Ȉ ȡ Ȑ Ț Ȉ Ȗ Ț Ȋ Ȗ ȏ Ȕ Ȗ Ȏ ȕ ȣ ȝ ȕ Ȉ Ȋ Ȗ Ȍ ȕ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȑ Ȋ ȏ Ȗ ȕ Ȉ ȝ, ȕ Ȉ ȝ Ȗ Ȍ ȧ ȡ Ȑ ȝ ș ȧ Ȋ ț ȧ ȏ Ȋ Ȑ Ȕ Ȗ Ȕ ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȐ. ǹ ȕ ȍ ȋ Ȗ Ȋ Ȉ ȧ ȓ Ȑ ȕ Ȑ ȧ ȗ Ȗ Ȍ ȕ Ȑ Ȕ ȍ Ț șȧ Ȋ șȘ ȍ Ȍ ȕ ȍ Ȕ ȕ Ȉ 200 - 300 Ȕ ȍ Ț Ș Ȗ Ȋ Ȍ Ȗ 2050 ȋ Ȗ Ȍ Ȉ. ǹȒȓȖȕȣȝȖȓȔȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍȊșȍȋȌȈȉȣȓȐȗȖȒȘȣȚȣșȕȍȋȖȔ, ȉțȌțȚȗȖȌȊȍȘȋȈȚȤșȧ ȥȘȖȏȐȐ. ǺȈȧȕȐȍ ȊȍȟȕȖȑ ȔȍȘȏȓȖȚȣ Ȋ ȊȣșȖȒȐȝ ȋȖȘȈȝ șȌȍȓȈȦȚ șȒȓȖȕȣ ȕȍțșȚȖȑȟȐȊȣȔȐ, ȐȥȚȖȉțȌȍȚȋȍȕȍȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤȖȗȖȓȏȕȐ ȐșȍȓȐ . ǺȈȒȐȍȉȍȌșȚȊȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȗȈșȕȣ Ȍȓȧ ȗȖșȍȓȍȕȐȑ Ȑ ȐȕȜȘȈșȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ ȊȕȐȏ ȗȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ . ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȕȍ țȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȕȈ țȊȍȓȐȟȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȏȕȐȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȧ ȊȍșȍȕȕȐȝ ȕȈȊȖȌȕȍȕȐȑ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ, ȕȖ Ȋ șȊȧȏȐ ș ȘȖșȚȖȔ șȍȓȍȑ, ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ ȕȈȊȖȌȕȍȕȐȧ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȍȍ ȊșȍȋȖ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȒȈȚȈșȚȘȖȜȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ , ȟȍȔ ȘȈȕȤȠȍ. ǫȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȧȘȈȑȖȕȖȊȊȊȍȘȝȗȖȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ ǩȣȓȐ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȣ ȘȈșȚȘȖȊȣȍ ȖșȕȖȊȣ ȊȣșȖȒȖ ȌȍȚȈȓȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȒȘȐȖșȜȍȘȕȖȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝȔȖȌȍȓȍȑȌȓȧȊȣȠȍșȚȖȧȡȐȝȟȈșȚȍȑǨȔțǬȈȘȤȐ Ȑ ǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȐ. ǪȊȍȘȝ ȗȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȧ Ȑ ȘȖȓȤ șȕȍȋȈ Ȑ ȓȤȌȈ ȐȔȍȦȚ ȘȍȠȈȦȡȍȍ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȍ Ȍȓȧ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȕȈ ȘȈȑȖȕȣ ȕȐȎȕȍȋȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȧ. ǪȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ȕȈ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȦ ȊȍȘȝȕȍȋȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘțȍȚșȧ ș ȊȣșȖȒȖȑ ȌȍȚȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȍȑ , ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈȝ Ȑ șȕȍȎȕȖȔ ȗȖȒȘȖȊȍ . ǪȒȓȈȌ ȖȚ ȚȈȧȕȐȧ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ, Ț Ȉ ȧ ȕ Ȑ ȧ ș ȕ ȍ ȋ Ȉ, Ȍ Ȗ Ȏ Ȍ ȍ Ȋ ȣ ȝ Ȗ ș Ȉ Ȍ Ȓ Ȗ Ȋ Ȑ ȉ Ȉ ȏ Ȗ Ȋ Ȗ ȋ Ȗ ș Ț Ȗ Ȓ Ȉ Ȋ Ȟ ȍ ȓ Ȗ Ȕ Ȋ ș ȍ ȋ Ȗ Ȗ ȉ Ȣ Ȩ Ȕ Ȉ șȚȖȒȈȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧȔȖȌȍȓȤȦ. ȅȚȈȔȖȌȍȓȤȉȣȓȈȖȚȒȈȓȐȉȘȖȊȈȕȈȌȓȧȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȖȚȟȍȚȕȖȋȖȗȍȘȐȖȌȈ (2001-2010) , șȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ ȗȘȐȚȖȒȈ Ȋ ȊȖȌȖȝȘȈȕȐȓȐȡȍ. DzȈȓȐȉȘȖȊȈȕȕȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȉ ȣ ȓ Ȉ Ȋ ȗ Ȗ ș ȓ ȍ Ȍ ș Ț Ȋ Ȑ Ȑ Ȝ Ȗ Ș ș Ȑ Ș Ȗ Ȋ Ȉ ȕ Ȉ Ȋ ț Ȕ ȍ ȕ Ȥ Ƞ ȍ ȕ ȕ Ȗ Ȕ Ȕ Ȉ ș Ƞ Ț Ȉ ȉ ȍ ș ȉ ț Ȍț ȡ Ȑ Ȕ Ȑ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊȣȔȐ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȧȔȐ Ȍȓȧ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȧ A1B , ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȕȈ ȗȧȚȐ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ǴȖȌȍȓȧȝ ǫȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȑ ǾȐȘȒțȓȧȞȐȐ ( ǴǶǾ) ȏȈ 2011-2050 ȋȋ. ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȘȈȑȖȕȖȊ ȊȊȍȘȝ ȗȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȚșȓȍȌțȦȡȍȍ: x ǸȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ , șȗȖșȖȉȕȈȧ ȐȔȐȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȕȣȑ ȗțȚȨȔ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ șȚȖȒ Ȑ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȈ Ȍȓȧ ȐȏțȟȍȕȐȧ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȧ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑȒȓȐȔȈȚȈȕȈȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑȞȐȒȓ. x ǭ ș Ț Ȥ ȉ Ȗ ȓ Ȥ Ƞ Ȑ ȍ Ȗ Ț ȓ Ȑ ȟ Ȑ ȧ Ȋ Ș Ȗ ȓ Ȑ ș Ț Ȗ Ȓ Ȉ Ț Ȉ ȓ Ȗ ȑ Ȋ Ȗ Ȍ ȣ Ȍ ȓ ȧ ș Ȗ ȏ Ȍ Ȉ ȕ Ȑ ȧ Ș ȍ ȟ ȕ ȣ ȝ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȖȊǨȔțǬȈȘȤȐȐǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȐ . ǺȈȓȈȧ ȊȖȌȈȐȔȍȍȚȉȖȓȍȍȊȣșȖȒȐȑȊȒȓȈȌ Ȋ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍșȚȖȒȈȉȈșșȍȑȕȈȘȍȒȐǨȔțǬȈȘȤȐȗȖșȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȦșȉȈșșȍȑȕȖȔ ȘȍȒȐǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȐ.