TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 6 DzȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȓȐ șȘȍȌȕȍȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ , ȔȈȒșȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȍ Ȑ ȔȐȕȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ Ȑ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ Ȗȉ ȖșȈȌȒȈȝ ȗȖ șȍȚȒȍ Ș Ȉ ȏ Ȕ ȍ Ș Ȗ Ȕ 0,2 ° Â 0,2 °, ȗ Ȗ Ȓ Ș ȣ Ȋ Ȉ Ȧ ȡ ȍ ȑ ș Ț Ș Ȉ ȕ ȣ Ǿ ȍ ȕ Ț Ș Ȉ ȓ Ȥ ȕ Ȗ ȑ Ǩ ȏ Ȑ Ȑ. ǹ Ȗ Ȍ ȕ Ȗ ȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ, ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȓȖ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȖ ȒȓȐȔȈȚț ȕȈ șȍȋȖȌȕȧȠȕȐȑ ȌȍȕȤ - Ȍȓȧ ȒȈȓȐȉȘȖȊȒȐ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȗȘȖȍȒȞȐȐ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ - Ȍȓȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧȊȉțȌțȡȍȔ. ǬȈȕȕȣȍ, ȕȈȕȍșȨȕȕȣȍȕȈșȍȚȒțȐ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȍ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȍ șȘȍȌȕȍȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ , ȔȈȒșȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȍ Ȑ ȔȐȕȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ , ȉȣȓȐ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȍȌȍȕȣ ȗțȚȨȔ ȕȈȏȍȔȕȣȝ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ ȏȈ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȖȑ (2001-2010 ȋȋ.) Ȑ ȒȘȐȌȎȐȕȋȈ ( ȘȈȏȉȐȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ ȕȈ ȉȓȖȒȐ ȜȐȒșȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȔȍȘȈ Ȑ ȘȈșȟȨȚ ȐșșȓȍȌțȍȔȖȋȖ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȈ Ȋ ȒȈȎȌȖȔ ȉȓȖȒȍ ȗȖ ȊȣȉȘȈȕȕȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȊȈȘȐȖȋȘȈȔȔȣ - ȗȘȐȔȗȍȘȍȊȖȌȟȐȒȈ) ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȐ. ǹȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȖ Ȗ ș Ȉ Ȍ Ȓ Ȉ Ȕ ȉ ȣ ȓ Ȑ Ȗ ș ȕ Ȗ Ȋ Ȉ ȕ ȣ ȕ Ȉ P E R S I A N N ș ȗ ț Ț ȕ Ȑ Ȓ Ȗ Ȋ ȣ ȝ Ȍ Ȉ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȝ, ȏ Ȉ ȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȍȔ 2006-2007 ȋȖȌȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȉȣȓȐ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȣ ȕȈ TRMM șȗțȚȕȐȒȖȊȣȝȗȖȖșȈȌȒȈȔ. ǷȘȖȋȕȖȏȣȉțȌțȡȍȋȖȒȓȐȔȈȚȈȕȈ 2011- 2050 ȉȣȓȐ ȖȉȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȣ ș ȗȖȔȖȡȤȦ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȗȧȚȐ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȋ ȓ Ȗ ȉ Ȉ ȓ Ȥ ȕ Ȗ ȋ Ȗ Ȓ ȓ Ȑ Ȕ Ȉ Ț Ȉ ȗ Ș Ȗ ȍ Ȓ Ț Ȉ I P C C ' s C M I P 3 (I PCC I nternational Panel for Clim ate Change ). ǫȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȐȔȐȚȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ Ȍȓȧ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ ȉȣȓȐ țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȣ Ȋ ȘȈȏȔȍȘȍ ȌȖ ȗȓȖȚȕȖȑ șȍȚȒȐ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȧ șȍȚȒț șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝȌȈȕȕȣȝȐȔȍȚȖȌȖȔȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȌȍȓȤȚȣ. ǴȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȕȈȉȈȏȍȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȝȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝȔȖȌȍȓȍȑȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ șȘȍȌȕȍȋȖȌȖȊȈȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȈ ȉțȌȍȚ ȘȈșȚȐ Ȋ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖǨȏȐȈȚșȒȖȔ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȕȖ ȕȈ ȚȘȐ ȋȘȈȌțșȈ Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȉȓȐȎȈȑȠȐȝ 40 ȓȍȚ. ǹȐȓȤȕȍȑȠȍȍ ȗȖȚȍȗȓȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȋȖȘȈȝ , Ȑ Ȋ șȍȊȍȘȕȖȑ ȟȈșȚȐ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ǨȏȐȐ . ǵȈ ȍȎȍȋȖȌȕȖȑ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ , ȗȖ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȈȔ, ȉțȌȍȚ ȕȍȉȖȓȤȠȐȔ Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȉȓȐȎȈȑȠȐȝ 40 ȓȍȚ. ǹțȡȍșȚȊțȍȚ ȊȈȘȐȈȞȐȧ ȖȚ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ Ȓ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ , ȖȌȕȈȒȖ, ȉȖȓȤȠȐȕșȚȊȖ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȦȚ, ȟȚȖ țȎȍ Ȋ șțȝȖȑ ȦȋȖȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȑ ȟȈșȚȐ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ǨȏȐȐșȚȈȕȍȚȍȡȍșțȠȍȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖȊȓȍȚȕȐȑȗȍȘȐȖȌ, ȐȟȚȖȊȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȝȔȍșȚȈȝ ȊȋȖȘȈȝȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖȖșȈȌȒȖȊȔȖȎȍȚțȊȍȓȐȟȐȚȤșȧ. ǶȒȘțȎȈȦȡȈȧșȘȍȌȈȊȋȖȘȈȝ dzȍȌȕȐȒȐ ȏȈȕȐȔȈȦȚ 18128 ȒȔ2, Ȗ Ț ȉ Ȉ ș ș ȍ ȑ ȕ Ȉ Ǩ Ș Ȉ ȓ Ȥ ș Ȓ Ȗ ȋ Ȗ Ȕ Ȗ Ș ȧ. Ƕ ȕ Ȑ Ȑ ȋ Ș Ȉ Ȧ Ț ȊȈȎȕțȦ ȘȖȓȤ Ȋ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȐ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȋȍȕȍȘȐȘțȦȚ ȚȈȓțȦ ȊȖȌț Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȏȈșțȠȓȐȊȣȝ ȓȍȚȕȐȝ ȔȍșȧȞȍȊ . ǫȖȘȕȣȍ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȐ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȚ Ȋ șȍȉȧ : 1) ǴȍȓȍȕȤȒȐȑ ȞȐȘȒ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ, ȗȖȒȖȧȡȐȝșȧ ȕȈ ȌȖȊȖȓȤȕȖ ȒȘțȚȣȝ ȋȖȘȕȣȝ șȒȓȖȕȈȝ; 2) ǩȖȓȤȠȐȍ ȓȍȌȧȕȣȍ ȠȈȗȒȐ ȗȖȒȘȣȊȈȦȡȐȍ ȋȖȘȕȣȍ ȊȍȘȠȐȕȣ , șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȍ ș ȌȖȓȐȕȕȣȔȐ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈȔȐ , țȏȒȐȍ Ȑ ȌȓȐȕȕȣȍ ȧȏȣȒȐ ȓȤȌȈ , șȚȍȒȈȦȡȐȍȊǷȖȉȘȈȏȕȣȍȌȖȓȐȕȣ. ǷȘȖȞȍȕȚ ȗȓȖȡȈȌȐ ȖȓȍȌȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȌȊțȝ ȊȖȌȖșȉȖȘȕȣȝ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȖȊ șțȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȖȚȓȐȟȈȍȚșȧ. dzȍȌȕȐȒȐǨȔțǬȈȘȤȐ ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȍȚ 15500 ȒȔ2 (2% ȖȚȗ ȓȖȡ ȈȌȐ) Ȑ 1,800 ȒȔ2 - ǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȐ (0,15% ȖȚ ȗȓȖȡȈȌȐ ). ǹȈȔȣȍ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȍ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȐ ȕȈȝȖȌȧȚșȧȊȋȖȘȈȝǷȈȔȐȘȈȊǺȈȌȎȐȒȐșȚȈȕȍ. dzȍȌȕȐȒȐȊȋȖȘȈȝǺȧȕȤȀȈȕȧȐǷȈȔȐȘȈȖȚșȚțȗȈȦȚ , ȈȔȈșȠȚȈȉȣȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȕȧȦȚșȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȔȐ Ȑ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȗȍȘȐȖȌȈȔȐ . DzȘțȗȕȍȑȠȈȧ ȊȍȓȐȟȐȕȈȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧȉȣȓȈȏȈȘȍȋȐșȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȈȊǹȍȊȍȘȕȖȔǺȧȕȤȀȈȕȍ , ȋȌȍ ȗȓȖȡȈȌȐ ȖȓȍȌȍȕȍȕȐȧ șȖȒȘȈȚȐȓȈșȤ ȕȈ 30-40% Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȊȚȖȘȖȑ ȗȖȓȖȊȐȕȣ 20- ȋȖ ȊȍȒȈ. ǺȍȔȗȣ ȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ ȉȣȓȐ ȔȍȌȓȍȕȕȍȍ Ȋ țȌȈȓȍȕȐȐ ȕȈ