TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia 
Part I  -  Execut ive Sum m ary &  Clim ate Change  
1 
 
ǹȖȌȍȘȎȈȕȐȍ 
 
ǸǭǯȆǴǭ              4  
1 . ǴǶǬǭdzǰǸǶǪǨǵǰǭǰǯǴǭǵǭǵǰDZDzdzǰǴǨǺǨ 1 1 
1.1.  ǶȉȡȐȑ 11  
1.2.  ǶȉȘȈȉȖȚȒȈȌȈȕȕȣȝȖȒȓȐȔȈȚȍ 12  
1.3.  ǩȈȏȖȊȣȑȒȓȐȔȈȚ 12  
1.4.  ǹȞȍȕȈȘȐȐȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ 17  
1.5.  ǴȍȓȒȖȔȈșȠȚȈȉȕȣȑ of șȞȍȕȈȘȐȑȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ 20  
1.6.  ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧȗȖȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȦȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ  21  
1.7.  ǸȍȏȦȔȍȗȖȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ 24  
1.8.  ǹșȣȓȒȐ 25  
2 . ǫǶǸǵǨȇǹǸǭǬǨ 2 6 
2.1.  ǫȍȖȋȘȈȜȐȧ 26  
2.2.  ǷȘȐȏȕȈȒȐȚȈȧȕȐȧȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ 26  
2.3.  ǹȚȐȝȐȑȕȣȍȉȍȌșȚȊȐȧțșțȋțȉȓȍȕȕȣȍȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍȔȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ 28  
2.4.  ǹșȣȓȒȐ 31 
 
ǹǷǰǹǶDzǼǰǫǻǸ 
 
ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-1. ǴǫȅǰDz 4 ǶȚȟȍȚȗȖȖȞȍȕȒȍȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊȌȓȧǨȏȐȐ (Christensen et al. 
2007) . ............................................ .................................................. 11  
ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-2. ǹȘȍȌȕȍȋȖȌȖȊȣȍȖșȈȌȒȐȊȗȍȘȐȖȌ 2001-2010 ȋȋ ( ȔȔ /  ȋȖȌ), ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ 
ȕȈ PERSIANN (http: / / chrs.web.uci.edu/ ) Ȑ TRMM (2006, 2007) ȌȈȕȕȣȝ. .. 14  
ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-3. ǬȈȕȕȣȍȖȊȣșȖȚȈȝ ( ȔȍȚȘȖȊȕȈȌțȘȖȊȕȍȔȔȖȘȧ). ǹȍȘȣȍȒȖȕȚțȘȣ 
țȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚȋȘȈȕȐȞȣșȚȘȈȕȣ................................................... ............. 14  
ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-4. ǰȦȓȤ, ȧȕȊȈȘȤȐșȘȍȌȕȍȋȖȌȖȊȈȧ (2001-2010) ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȈ (°  C) ȕȈȖșȕȖȊȍ 
ȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȐȑ, ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȕȣȝȕȈșȚȈȕȞȐȐȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑȐȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȍ 
ȗȖ  șȍȚȒȍȌȖ 0,2 °   * 0,2 ° , ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȧȔȍȚȖȌȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȐDzȘȐȋȐȕȋȈ. ..... 15  
ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-5. DzȖȘȘȍȓȧȞȐȧȔȍȎȌțȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȖȑȐȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȕȖȑșȘȍȌȕȍșțȚȖȟȕȖȑ 
ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȖȑ. DzȈȎȌȈȧȚȖȟȒȈ - șȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȍȕȣȕȍȠȕȍȋȖȖȌȕȖȋȖȌȕȧ, 
ȘȈșșȟȐȚȈȕȈȌȓȧȊșȍȝȌȖșȚțȗȕȣȝșȚȈȕȞȐȑȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȧ .......................... 16  
ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-6. 95%  ȗȘȖȞȍȕȚȕȖȍȘȈșȗȘȍȓȍȕȐȍȐșȘȍȌȕȧȧȌȐșȗȍȘșȐȧȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ 
șȘȍȌȕȍșțȚȖȟȕȖȑȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ (°  C). ........................................... ......... 17  
ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-7. a) ȊȣȉȘȖșȣ CO2Ȑȉ) șȖȊȖȒțȗȕȈȧȒȖȕȞȍȕȚȘȈȞȐȧǹǶ2ȊȈȚȔȖșȜȍȘȍ SRES, 
șȞȍȕȈȘȐȐ A2, A1B Ȑ B1 (Nakicenovic et al. 2000). .................... ............. 19  
ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-8. ǫȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȍȊȣȉȘȖșȣ GHG ( ȊǫȚ CO2ȥȒȊ) ȗȘȐȖȚșțȚșȚȊȐȐșȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐȊ 
ȖȉȓȈșȚȐȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ( șȓȍȊȈ):  ȐȓȓȦșȚȘȈȞȐȐȠȍșȚȐSRESșȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊȞȊȍȚȕȣȍ 
ȓȐȕȐȐ) Ȑ 80 ȗȘȖȞȍȕȚȕȖȋȖȌȐȈȗȈȏȖȕȈșȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊȖȗțȉȓȐȒȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ  ȕȈȟȐȕȈȧ 
ș SRES ( ȐȗȖșȓȍSRES ) ( șȍȘȖȍȗȖȓȍ). ( ǴǫȅǰDz2007). ............................. 19  
ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-9. ǹȘȍȌȕȐȍȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ  ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ (°  ǹ) Ȑ  ȊȣȗȈȌȍȕȐȧȖșȈȌȒȖȊ (% ) 
ȋȖȌȐȟȕȣȝ (A), ȧȕȊȈȘșȒȐȝ (B) ȐȐȦȓȤșȒȐȝ (C) ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȍȕȕȣȝȗțȚȍȔ 
ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ( ȗȍȘȐȖȌȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ:  1971-2000) ȐȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ 
ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ ( ȗȧȚȤȗȍȘȐȖȌȖȊȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ:  2045 -2065). ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ 
ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȣȍȕȈȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȕȣȝȖȗȣȚȈȝșȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔȗȧȚȐȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ 
ȌȈȕȣȊǺȈȉȓȐȞȍ 1… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 22  
Ǽ Ȑ ȋ ț Ș Ȉ 1 - 1 0 . ǹ Ș ȍ Ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȍ ȏ ȕ Ȉ ȟ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȧ Ȋ 2 0 4 1 - 2 0 5 0 ȍ Ȏ ȍ ȋ Ȗ Ȍ ȕ ȣ ȝ ( A ) , ȧ ȕ Ȋ Ȉ Ș ș Ȓ Ȑ ȝ ( B ) Ȑ 
Ȑ Ȧ ȓ Ȥ ș Ȓ Ȑ ȝ ( C ) Ț ȍ Ȕ ȗ ȍ Ș Ȉ Ț ț Ș ( °  ǹ) Ȑ Ȗ ș Ȉ Ȍ Ȓ Ȗ Ȋ ( Ȕ Ȕ) . ǯ ȕ Ȉ ȟ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȧ ȧ Ȋ ȓ ȧ Ȧ Ț ș ȧ