ǪȖȌȕȣȍȘȍșțȘșȣȐǨȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ ǰȕȚȍȘȊȍȕȞȐȐȊǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ Ȑ ǯȈȗȈȌȕȖȑǨȏȐȐ TA 7 5 3 2 ǰȦȕȤ 2 0 1 2 FCG ǼȐȕșȒȈȧ DzȖȕșȈȓȚȐȕȋȖȊȈȧ ǫȘțȗȗȈ Ltd. ǹȖȊȔȍșȚȕȖș x ǩțȌțȡȍȍȊȖȌȣ x ǼȐȕșȒȐȑȔȍȚȍȖȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ x ǰȕșȚȐȚțȚ ǼȐȕȈȓȤȕȣȑȖȚȟȍȚ ǿȈșȚȤ 1 ǸȍȏȦȔȍ & ǰȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ǨȏȐȈȚșȒȐȑǩȈȕȒǸȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 1 ǹȖȌȍȘȎȈȕȐȍ ǸǭǯȆǴǭ 4 1 . ǴǶǬǭdzǰǸǶǪǨǵǰǭǰǯǴǭǵǭǵǰDZDzdzǰǴǨǺǨ 1 1 1.1. ǶȉȡȐȑ 11 1.2. ǶȉȘȈȉȖȚȒȈȌȈȕȕȣȝȖȒȓȐȔȈȚȍ 12 1.3. ǩȈȏȖȊȣȑȒȓȐȔȈȚ 12 1.4. ǹȞȍȕȈȘȐȐȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ 17 1.5. ǴȍȓȒȖȔȈșȠȚȈȉȕȣȑ of șȞȍȕȈȘȐȑȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ 20 1.6. ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧȗȖȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȦȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ 21 1.7. ǸȍȏȦȔȍȗȖȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ 24 1.8. ǹșȣȓȒȐ 25 2 . ǫǶǸǵǨȇǹǸǭǬǨ 2 6 2.1. ǫȍȖȋȘȈȜȐȧ 26 2.2. ǷȘȐȏȕȈȒȐȚȈȧȕȐȧȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ 26 2.3. ǹȚȐȝȐȑȕȣȍȉȍȌșȚȊȐȧțșțȋțȉȓȍȕȕȣȍȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍȔȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ 28 2.4. ǹșȣȓȒȐ 31 ǹǷǰǹǶDzǼǰǫǻǸ ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-1. ǴǫȅǰDz 4 ǶȚȟȍȚȗȖȖȞȍȕȒȍȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊȌȓȧǨȏȐȐ (Christensen et al. 2007) . ............................................ .................................................. 11 ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-2. ǹȘȍȌȕȍȋȖȌȖȊȣȍȖșȈȌȒȐȊȗȍȘȐȖȌ 2001-2010 ȋȋ ( ȔȔ / ȋȖȌ), ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ ȕȈ PERSIANN (http: / / chrs.web.uci.edu/ ) Ȑ TRMM (2006, 2007) ȌȈȕȕȣȝ. .. 14 ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-3. ǬȈȕȕȣȍȖȊȣșȖȚȈȝ ( ȔȍȚȘȖȊȕȈȌțȘȖȊȕȍȔȔȖȘȧ). ǹȍȘȣȍȒȖȕȚțȘȣ țȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚȋȘȈȕȐȞȣșȚȘȈȕȣ................................................... ............. 14 ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-4. ǰȦȓȤ, ȧȕȊȈȘȤȐșȘȍȌȕȍȋȖȌȖȊȈȧ (2001-2010) ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȈ (° C) ȕȈȖșȕȖȊȍ ȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȐȑ, ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȕȣȝȕȈșȚȈȕȞȐȐȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑȐȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȍ ȗȖ șȍȚȒȍȌȖ 0,2 ° * 0,2 ° , ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȧȔȍȚȖȌȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȐDzȘȐȋȐȕȋȈ. ..... 15 ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-5. DzȖȘȘȍȓȧȞȐȧȔȍȎȌțȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȖȑȐȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȕȖȑșȘȍȌȕȍșțȚȖȟȕȖȑ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȖȑ. DzȈȎȌȈȧȚȖȟȒȈ - șȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȍȕȣȕȍȠȕȍȋȖȖȌȕȖȋȖȌȕȧ, ȘȈșșȟȐȚȈȕȈȌȓȧȊșȍȝȌȖșȚțȗȕȣȝșȚȈȕȞȐȑȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȧ .......................... 16 ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-6. 95% ȗȘȖȞȍȕȚȕȖȍȘȈșȗȘȍȓȍȕȐȍȐșȘȍȌȕȧȧȌȐșȗȍȘșȐȧȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ șȘȍȌȕȍșțȚȖȟȕȖȑȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ (° C). ........................................... ......... 17 ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-7. a) ȊȣȉȘȖșȣ CO2Ȑȉ) șȖȊȖȒțȗȕȈȧȒȖȕȞȍȕȚȘȈȞȐȧǹǶ2ȊȈȚȔȖșȜȍȘȍ SRES, șȞȍȕȈȘȐȐ A2, A1B Ȑ B1 (Nakicenovic et al. 2000). .................... ............. 19 ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-8. ǫȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȍȊȣȉȘȖșȣ GHG ( ȊǫȚ CO2ȥȒȊ) ȗȘȐȖȚșțȚșȚȊȐȐșȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐȊ ȖȉȓȈșȚȐȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ( șȓȍȊȈ): ȐȓȓȦșȚȘȈȞȐȐȠȍșȚȐSRESșȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ ȞȊȍȚȕȣȍ ȓȐȕȐȐ) Ȑ 80 ȗȘȖȞȍȕȚȕȖȋȖȌȐȈȗȈȏȖȕȈșȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊȖȗțȉȓȐȒȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȕȈȟȐȕȈȧ ș SRES ( ȐȗȖșȓȍSRES ) ( șȍȘȖȍȗȖȓȍ). ( ǴǫȅǰDz2007). ............................. 19 ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-9. ǹȘȍȌȕȐȍȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ (° ǹ) Ȑ ȊȣȗȈȌȍȕȐȧȖșȈȌȒȖȊ (% ) ȋȖȌȐȟȕȣȝ (A), ȧȕȊȈȘșȒȐȝ (B) ȐȐȦȓȤșȒȐȝ (C) ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȍȕȕȣȝȗțȚȍȔ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ( ȗȍȘȐȖȌȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ: 1971-2000) ȐȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ ( ȗȧȚȤȗȍȘȐȖȌȖȊȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ: 2045 -2065). ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȣȍȕȈȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȕȣȝȖȗȣȚȈȝșȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔȗȧȚȐȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȌȈȕȣȊǺȈȉȓȐȞȍ 1… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 22 Ǽ Ȑ ȋ ț Ș Ȉ 1 - 1 0 . ǹ Ș ȍ Ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȍ ȏ ȕ Ȉ ȟ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȧ Ȋ 2 0 4 1 - 2 0 5 0 ȍ Ȏ ȍ ȋ Ȗ Ȍ ȕ ȣ ȝ ( A ) , ȧ ȕ Ȋ Ȉ Ș ș Ȓ Ȑ ȝ ( B ) Ȑ Ȑ Ȧ ȓ Ȥ ș Ȓ Ȑ ȝ ( C ) Ț ȍ Ȕ ȗ ȍ Ș Ȉ Ț ț Ș ( ° ǹ) Ȑ Ȗ ș Ȉ Ȍ Ȓ Ȗ Ȋ ( Ȕ Ȕ) . ǯ ȕ Ȉ ȟ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȧ ȧ Ȋ ȓ ȧ Ȧ Ț ș ȧ --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 2 șȘȍȌȕȐȔȐ Ȑȏ ȗȧȚȐ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ( ȚȈȉȓ. 1), ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȔȣȝ Ȋ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … .. 23 ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-11. ǪȈȎȕȍȑȠȐȑ ȊȖȗȘȖș ȗȘȐ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȗȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȐȦ șțȌȤȉȣ ȋȖȘȕȣȝ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ Ȋ ȊȍȘȝȖȊȤȧȝ ȊȖȌȖșȉȖȘȕȣȝ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȖȊ . ǯȈ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ șȚȖȓȍȚȐȧ, ȧȏȣȒȐ ȗȖȟȚȐ Ȋșȍȝ ȌȖȓȐȕȕȣȝ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ Ȋ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ǨȏȐȐ ȖȚșȚțȗȐȓȐ (NE ǺȈȌȎȐȒȐșȚȈȕ, DzțȘțȔȌȣ ȘȍȋȐȖȕ , Google Earth)… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … . 24 ǼȐȋțȘȈ 2-1. ǶȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȍȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊȊȊȖșȚȖȟȕȖȔǺȧȕȤȀȈȕȍ, DzȣȘȋȣȏșȚȈȕ, ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ țșȒȖȘȍȕȐȍȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȐ, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖȗȖșȓȍ 1940 ȋ (Kutuzov & Shahgedanova, 2009) . ............................................ .................................................. 27 ǼȐȋțȘȈ 2-2. ǫȍȖȔȖȘȜȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚȕȈ ȕȈȓȐȟȐȍ ȒȘȈȍȊȣȝ ȔȖȘȍȕ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ șȊȐȌȍȚȍȓȤșȚȊțȦȚ Ȗ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȒȘțȗȕȣȝ ȘȈȏȔȍȘȈȝ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ Ȗ Ț ș Ț ț ȗȐ ȓ Ȑ Ȋ Ȗ ș ȕȖ Ȋ ȕȖ Ȕ Ȋ Ț ȍ ȟ ȍ ȕȐ ȍ ȗȖ ș ȓ ȍ Ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȝ 150 ȓ ȍ Ț ( Dz Ǩǯ / Dz ǫǯ ȋ Ș Ȉ ȕ Ȑ Ȟ Ȉ, ȋ. ǨȓȔȈȚȣ; Google Earth)… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 28 ǼȐȋțȘȈ 2-3. ǷȘȐȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊȖȍȖȏȍȘȖǷȍȚȘȖȊȊDzȣȘȋȣȏșȚȈȕȍșȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȓȖșȤȊ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȍȚȈȧȕȐȧȓȍȌȕȐȒȈ. ǩȣȊȠȐȍ 150 ȓȍȚǹȚȈȘȣȍȒȘȈȍȊȣȍȔȖȘȍȕȣȏȈ ȗȘȍȌȣȌțȡȐȍ 150 ȓȍȚȗȍȘȍȒȘȣȓȐȖȏȍȘȖ (Google Earth). ......................... 29 ǼȐȋțȘȈ 2-4. ǪȣșȖȒȖȍ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȍ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ șȕȍȋȖȊ ( Ȋ ș Ș ȍ Ȍ ȕȍ Ȕ T = 0° C) Ȑ ȍ ȋ Ȗ Ș Ȗ ș Ț Ȋ Ș ȍ ȏ ț ȓ Ȥ Ț Ȉ Ț ȍ Ȑ ȏ Ȕ ȍ ȕȍ ȕ Ȑ ȧ Ȓ ȓ Ȑ Ȕ Ȉ Ț Ȉ Ȋ Ș Ȉ ȑ Ȗ ȕȍ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ… … … …… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … 30 ǼȐȋțȘȈ 2-5. ǸȖșȚȊȍȟȕȖȑȔȍȘȏȓȖȚȣȊȊȣșȖȒȖȋȖȘȤȍȖȉȕȈȎȈȚȕȖȊȣȍȖȉȓȈșȚȐȌȓȧ ȥȘȖȏȐȐ. ǷȖȥȚȖȔț, ȖȗȖȓȏȕȐȐșȍȓȐșȚȈȓȐȖȉȣȟȕȣȔȧȊȓȍȕȐȍȔȊȊȍȘȝȕȐȝ ȟȈșȚȧȝȋȖȘȕȣȝȝȘȍȉȚȖȊ ( ǹȍȊȍȘȕȣȑǷȈȒȐșȚȈȕ; Google Earth). ................. 30 ǹǷǰǹǶDzǺǨǩdzǰǾ ǺȈȉȓȐȞȈ 1-1. ǫȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȈȧȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧȔȖȌȍȓȤ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȕȈȧȊȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ. ....... 18 ǨǩǩǸǭǪǰǨǺǻǸǨǰǹǶDzǸǨȁǭǵǰȇ ǨǩǸ ǨȏȐȈȚșȒȐȑȉȈȕȒ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȧ ǩǨǴ ǩȈșșȍȑȕ ǨȘȈȓȤșȒȖȋȖ ȔȖȘȧ ǻDzǺǶǸ ǻșȖȊȍȘȠȍȕșȚȊȖȊȈȕȕȣȑȒȖșȔȐȟȍșȒȐȑȚȍȘȔȖȥȔȐșșȐȖȕȕȣȑȐȖȚȘȈȎȈȦȡȐȑ ȘȈȌȐȖȔȍȚȘ (Terra șȗțȚȕȐȒȈ) ǰǹǾǨǻǯǸ ǰȕȐȞȐȈȚȐȊȈșȚȘȈȕǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑǨȏȐȐȗȖțȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȦȏȍȔȍȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȘȍșțȘșȈȔȐ ǾAC ǹȚȘȈȕȣǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑǨȏȐȐ ǾǨǸ ǸȍșȗțȉȓȐȒȐǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑǨȏȐȐ ǾǨǸǰǩǪ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖǨȏȐȈȚșȒȈȧǸȍȋȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȈȧǰȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȈȧǩȈȏȈǪȖȌȕȖȋȖ ǷȘȖȍȒȚȈ ǶDzǰ ǶȚȌȍȓȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȑ ( ǻȕȐȊȍȘșȐȚȍȚǪȖșȚȖȟȕȖȑǨȕȋȓȐȐ, ȖȉȓȈȌȈȚȍȓȤȉȈȏȣȌȈȕȕȣȝȗȖ ȒȓȐȔȈȚț) ǶǪǶǹ ǶȞȍȕȒȈȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȕȈȖȒȘțȎȈȦȡțȦșȘȍȌț ǼDzǫ ǼȐȕșȒȈȧ DzȖȕșȈȓȚȐȕȋȖȊȈȧȋȘțȗȗȈ ǼǴǰ ǼȐȕșȒȐȑȔȍȚȍȖȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑȐȕșȚȐȚțȚ ǫǨǴ ǫȍȕȍȘȈȓȤȕȈȧȈȌȌȐȚȐȊȕȈȧȔȖȌȍȓȤl ǫȅǼ ǫȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȑȥȒȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑȜȖȕȌ ǫǰǹ ǫȍȖȋȘȈȜȐȟȍșȒȈȧȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȈȧșȐșȚȍȔȈ ǫǶdzDz ǫȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȈȧȖȞȍȕȒȈȓȍȌȧȕȣȝȗȖȓȍȑȐȏȒȖșȔȖșȈ GPS ǫȍȖȋȘȈȜȐȟȍșȒȈȧșȐșȚȍȔȣȗȖȏȐȞȐȖȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ( șȗțȚȕȐȒȖȊȈȧ) ǫǪǷ ǫȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȍȊȖȌȕȖȍȗȈȘȚȕȍȘșȚȊȖ ǴǾǰǹǯǸ ǴȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȑȞȍȕȚȘȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȑșȍȓȤșȒȖȝȖȏȧȑșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȏȈșțȠȓȐȊȣȝȘȈȑȖȕȖȊ ǴDzǻǸ ǴȍȎȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȈȧȒȖȔȐșșȐȧȗȖțșȚȖȑȟȐȊȖȔțȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȦ ( ǴǼǹǨ) --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 3 ǴDzǪDz ǴȍȎȋȖșțȌȈȘșȚȊȍȕȕȈȧȒȖȔȐșșȐȧȗȖȒȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȞȐȐȊȖȌȖșȕȈȉȎȍȕȐȧ ( ǴǼǹǨ) ǴǼǨ ǴȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȑȜȖȕȌȌȓȧǨȘȈȓȤșȒȖȋȖȔȖȘȧ ǴǼǻ ǴȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȍȜȐȕȈȕșȖȊȣȍțȟȘȍȎȌȍȕȐȧ ǴǫȅǰDz ǴȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȈȧȋȘțȗȗȈȥȒșȗȍȘȚȖȊȗȖȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȦȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ǰǻǪǸ ǰȕȚȍȋȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȍțȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍȊȖȌȕȣȔȐȘȍșțȘșȈȔȐ MODI S ǹȗȍȒȚȘȖȘȈȌȐȖȔȍȚȘșȐȏȖȉȘȈȎȍȕȐȍȔșȘȍȌȕȍȋȖȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ (Aqua/ Terra șȗțȚȕȐȒ) 0Ƕ ǴȖȕȐȚȖȘȐȕȋȐȖȞȍȕȒȈ ǵǷǶ ǵȍȗȘȈȊȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ ǶDz ǶȞȍȕȒȈȒȈȟȍșȚȊȈ ǹǻDz ǹȐșȚȍȔȈțȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧȒȈȟȍșȚȊȖȔ ǵǰǾ ǵȈțȟȕȖȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȑ ȞȍȕȚȘ ǴǼǹǨ ǻǻǯǸ ǻșȚȖȑȟȐȊȖȍțȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍȏȍȔȍȓȤȕȣȔȐȘȍșțȘșȈȔȐ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȣ ( ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȕȣȑȒȖȔȗȖȕȍȕȚǰǹǾǨǻǯǸ) TL ǸțȒȖȊȖȌȐȚȍȓȤȋȘțȗȗȣ RMM ǴȐșșȐȧȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȐȧȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȈȚȘȖȗȐȟȍșȒȐȝȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ǴȕȖȋȖșȗțȚȕȐȒȖȊȣȑȈȕȈȓȐȏȖșȈȌȒȖȊ) ȆǵǭǷ ǷȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȈǶǶǵȗȖȖȒȘțȎȈȦȡȍȑșȘȍȌȍ Ǫǩ ǪșȍȔȐȘȕȣȑǩȈȕȒ ǶǷǪǸ ǶȞȍȕȒȈ ȐȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȊȖȌȕȣȝȘȍșțȘșȖȊ ( ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍșȐșȚȍȔȣ, ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȖȑǹȚȖȒȋȖȓȤȔșȒȐȔȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȖȔȗȖȖȒȘțȎȈȦȡȍȑșȘȍȌȍ) ǪǴǶ ǪșȍȔȐȘȕȈȧȔȍȚȍȖȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȈȧȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȧ --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 4 ǸǭǯȆǴǭ ǶȉȡȈȧȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȧȖȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȈȧ ǨȏȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȖȊ Ȋ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȤȠȍȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ șȚȘȈȌȈȦȡȍȑ ȖȚ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȑ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ȕȈ ȗȘȐȘȖȌț Ȑ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒț. ǯ Ȉ Ȓ ȓ Ȧ ȟ Ȑ Ț ȍ ȓ Ȥ ȕ ȣ ȑ Ȗ Ț ȟ ȍ Ț ȗ Ȗ ȗ Ș Ȗ ȍ Ȓ Ț ț Ǩ ǩ Ǹ / T A 7 5 3 2 : « Ǫ Ȗ Ȍ Ȉ Ȑ Ȉ Ȍ Ȉ ȗ Ț Ȉ Ȟ Ȑ ȧ ȐȕȚȍȘȊȍȕȞȐȐ ȊǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑȐǯȈȗȈȌȕȖȑǨȏȐȐ" ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȍ, Ȋ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȔ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȣ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȗȖ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȦ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ȕȈ ȊȖȌȕȣȍȘȍșțȘșȣȐșȚȐȝȐȑȕȣȍ ȉȍȌșȚȊȐȧȊȉȈșșȍȑȕȍǨȘȈȓȤșȒȖȋȖȔȖȘȧ. DzȓȐȔȈȚ ȗȘȖȠȓȖȋȖ ȉȣȓ ȊȖșșȚȈȕȖȊȓȍȕș ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ Ȑȏ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȉȈȏȣ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ, șȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕ ș ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȗȖȓȍȊȣȝ ȌȈȕȣȝ Ȑ șȗțȚȕȐȒȖȊȣȝ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ. ǵȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȖȊ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ȉȣȓȐ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȣ Ȍȓȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ, ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ, ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ, șȕȍȎȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȒȘȖȊȈ Ȑ Șȍȟȕȣȝ șȉȘȖșȖȊ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔȌȖ 2050 ȋȖȌȈ. ǴȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȉțȌțȡȍȋȖȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȐȘȍȒȗȖȔȖȋȈȍȚ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȚȤțȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍȊȖȌȕȣȔȐȘȍșțȘșȈȔȐȗȘȐ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȐȐșȍȓȤșȒȖȋȖ ȝȖȏȧȑșȚȊȈ, ȋȐȌȘȖȥȕȍȘȋȍȚȐȒȐ, ȖȒȘțȎȈȦȡȍȑ șȘȍȌȣ Ȑ ȋȖȘȖȌșȒȐȝ ȒȖȔȔțȕȈȓȤȕȣȝțșȓțȋ. ǻȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍȊȖȌȕȣȔȐȘȍșțȘșȈȔȐȊȘȍȋȐȖȕȍǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑǨȏȐȐșȚȈȓȒȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ș ȉȖȓȤȠȐȔȐ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈȔȐ . ǫȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȍȎȐȔȣ ȌȊțȝ ȖșȕȖȊȕȣȝ ȘȍȒ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈ, ǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȧ Ȑ ǨȔțǬȈȘȤȧ , ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ șȓȖȎȕȣȔȐ Ȑ țȧȏȊȐȔȣȔȐ Ȓ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȦ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ. ǰșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȊȖȌȖȏȈȉȖȘȖȊ șȍȓȤșȒȖȝȖȏȧȑșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ, ȗȘȖȔȣȠȓȍȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȉȣȚȖȊȣȝ ȗȖȚȘȍȉȐȚȍȓȍȑ șȖȒȘȈȚȐȓȖșȤ, ȗȖȚȖȒȐ Ȋ ȘȈȑȖȕȣ ȕȐȎȍ ȗȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ țȔȍȕȤȠȐȓȐșȤ , ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ȧȊȐȓșȧ ȚȧȎȍȓȣȑ ȥȒȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑ țȡȍȘȉ . ǨȌȔȐȕȐșȚȘȈȚȐȊȕȖȐȕșȚȐȚțȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȜȘȈȋȔȍȕȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȈ ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȍȔ ȠȍșȚȤȦ ȕȍȏȈȊȐșȐȔȣȔȐ șȚȘȈȕȈȔȐ, ȟȈșȚȖșȗȘȖȚȐȊȖȘȍȟȈȡȐȔȐȞȍȓȧȔȐ. ǼȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ șȚȖȒȈ ȕȈ ȖȉȍȐȝ ȘȍȒȈȝ - ǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȧ Ȑ ǨȔțǬȈȘȤȧ - ȐȌȨȚ Ȋ ȖșȕȖȊȕȖȔȏȈșȟȍȚȚȈȧȕȐȧ șȕȍȋȖȊȐȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ. ǪȓȐȧȕȐȍȗȖȚȍȗȓȍȕȐȧȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ȕȈ ȥȚȐ ȒȓȦȟȍȊȣȍ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ ȕȍ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȗȖȕȧȚȕȣ Ȑ ȗȖȥȚȖȔț ȗȘȖȊȖȌȧȚșȧ ȓȐȠȤ ȜȘȈȋȔȍȕȚȈȘȕȖȍ șȔȧȋȟȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȧ . Ǫ ȚȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȒȈȒ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ țȘȖȊȕȍȑ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ȚȘțȌȕȖ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȚȤ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ, ȍșȚȤ ȚȊȍȘȌȖȍ ȔȕȍȕȐȍ, ȟȚȖ șȘȍȌȕȧȧȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȈȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȈ ȗȖȊȣȠȈȍȚșȧ. Ǫ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȍ, ȉȖȓȤȠȍȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ȉțȌȍȚ ȊȣȗȈȌȈȚȤ ȊȊȐȌȍ ȌȖȎȌȍȑȊ ȊȍȘȝȖȊȤȧȝ Ȑ ȖȉȢȍȔ ȓȤȌȈ Ȋ ȋȖȘȈȝ ǺȧȕȤȀȈȕȧ Ȑ ǷȈȔȐȘȈ , șȒȖȘȍȍ ȊșȍȋȖ , șȖȒȘȈȚȧȚșȧ. Ƿ ȍ Ș Ȋ ȣ ȑ Ȑ ȏ ȕ Ȉ ȏ Ȋ Ȉ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȝ ȗ Ȗ Ȋ ȓ Ȑ ȧ ȍ Ț ȕ Ȉ ș ȍ ȏ Ȗ ȕ ȕ Ȗ ș Ț Ȥ ș Ț Ȗ Ȓ Ȉ, Ȋ Ț Ȗ Ȋ Ș ȍ Ȕ ȧ Ȓ Ȉ Ȓ, ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȐȑ, ȗȖ ȒȘȈȑȕȍȑ ȔȍȘȍ , ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖ țȊȍȓȐȟȐȚ șȘȍȌȕȍȋȖȌȖȊȖȑ șȚȖȒ . DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ , ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ Ȋ ȖșȈȌȒȈȝ ȔȖȎȍȚ șȖȏȌȈȚȤ ȌȖȗȖȓȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ. ǷȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ ȍȡȍ ȕȍ ȉȣȓȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȟȍșȒȐ ȌȖșȚȈȚȖȟȕȖ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȣ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ, Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȧ Ȑ șȔȧȋȟȍȕȐȧ ȕȍ ȐȔȍȓȐ ȔȍșȚȈ. DzȖȕȍȟȕȖȑȞȍȓȤȦȗȘȖȍȒȚȈȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧșȖȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍșȚȘȈȕȈȔǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑǨȏȐȐȊ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒȍ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȑ, ȗȖȓȐȚȐȒȐ Ȑ ȐȕȊȍșȚȐȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ ȗȓȈȕȖȊ ȗȖ țșȚȖȑȟȐȊȖșȚȐ Ȓ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȦ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ Ȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ . ǵȍȉȓȈȋȖȗȘȐȧȚȕȖȍ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ șȖȉȣȚȐȑ Ȋ ȥȚȖȔ ȋȍȖȗȖȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ ȊȈȎȕȖȔ Ȑ ȝȘțȗȒȖȔ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ , ȚȘȍȉțȦȚ șȘȖȟȕȖȋȖ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȖȋȖ șȖȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ . ǴȍȎȌȐșȞȐȗȓȐȕȈȘȕȣȍ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȖȒȈȏȈȚȤ șȍȘȤȨȏȕțȦ ȗȖȔȖȡȤ Ȋ ȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȐ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ Ȍȓȧ ȓțȟȠȍȋȖ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȘȐșȒȖȔ Ȑ ȘȍȠȍȕȐȐ --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 5 șȔȧȋȟȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȑ Ȓ ȕȍȋȈȚȐȊȕȣȔ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ. ǬȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤȗȖȗȘȖȍȒȚț Ǫ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ , ȗȘȖȠȓȣȑ ȒȓȐȔȈȚ ȉȣȓ ȘȍȒȖȕșȚȘțȐȘȖȊȈȕ ș ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ Ȍ Ȉ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȝ Ȑ ȏ ȋ ȓ Ȗ ȉ Ȉ ȓ Ȥ ȕ Ȗ ȑ ȉ Ȉ ȏ ȣ Ȍ Ȉ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȝ Ȓ ȓ Ȑ Ȕ Ȉ Ț Ȉ, ș Ȗ ș Ț Ȉ Ȋ ȓ ȍ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȑ ș ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȗȖȓȍȊȣȝ Ȑ șȗțȚȕȐȒȖȊȣȝ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ . ǭșȚȤ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔ , ȋȍȕȍȘȐȘțȦȡȐȍ șȗțȚȕȐȒȖȊȣȍ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȍ Ȉ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȍ ȗ Ȗ Ȕ Ȑ Ș ț, Ȑ ȥ Ț Ȑ Ȍ Ȉ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȍ Ȕ Ȗ ȋ ț Ț ȉ ȣ Ț Ȥ ȏ Ȉ ȋ Ș ț Ȏ ȍ ȕ ȣ Ȑ ȏ ǰ ȕ Ț ȍ Ș ȕ ȍ Ț Ȉ. ǵȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ țȕȐȊȍȘșȐȚȍȚȖȊ Ȑ ȕȈțȟȕȖȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤșȒȐȝ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȑ șȖȉȘȈȓȐ ȒȖȔȗȓȍȒș șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ Ȑ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ . ǷȧȚȤ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ ȉȣȓȐ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȣ Ȍȓȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ , ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ, ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ Ȑ șȕȍȎȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȒȘȖȊȈ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ ȌȖ 2050 ȋȖȌȈ. ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȉțȌțȚ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȐ țșȚȖȑȟȐȊȖșȚȐ Ȓ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȦ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ Ȑ șȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧȘȐșȒȈȔȐȕȈȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȔ, ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȔȐȉȈșșȍȑȕȖȊȖȘȍȟȕȖȔ țȘȖȊȕȧȝ. ǪȌȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤȗȘȖȍȒȚȈȊȝȖȌȐȚ: 1) ǹȉȖȘ șțȡȍșȚȊțȦȡȐȝ ȗȖȓȍȊȣȝ ȏȈȗȐșȍȑ Ȑ ȕȖȊȣȍ șȗțȚȕȐȒȖȊȣȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȖ ȒȓȐȔȈȚț, ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȐȐȏȍȔȓȍȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧȊȞȍȓȧȝȊȖșșȚȈȕȖȊȓȍȕȐȧȗȘȖȠȓȖȑ ȐȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȑȖȉșȚȈȕȖȊȒȐ; 2) ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȈ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȓȖȋȐȑ , ȖȚȕȖșȧȡȐȝșȧ Ȓ ȘȈȏțȒȘțȗȕȍȕȐȦ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ, ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ, ȚȈȧȕȐȍ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ, ȖȞȍȕȒȈȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȕȈȒȓȐȔȈȚ, țȧȏȊȐȔȖșȚȤȒȓȐȔȈȚȈȐȈȕȈȓȐȏȘȐșȒȖȊ; 3) ǴȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȐ ȘȍȒ Ȑ ȊȣȧȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȊȖȌȖȑ țȟȐȚȣȊȈȧ șȍȓȤșȒȖȍ ȝȖȏȧȑșȚȊȖ , ȋȐȌȘȖȥȕȍȘȋȍȚȐȒț, ȖȒȘțȎȈȦȡțȦșȘȍȌțȐȔțȕȐȞȐȗȈȓȤȕȣȍșȓțȎȉȣȗȖȊȖȌȖșȕȈȉȎȍȕȐȦ; 4) ǷȘȖȋȕȖȏ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȖȗȈșȕȖșȚȍȑ , ȊȣȏȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍȔ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ȚȈȒȐȝ, ȒȈȒȕȈȊȖȌȕȍȕȐȧ, ȏȈșțȝȐ, șȍȓȐ, ȖȗȖȓȏȕȐȐȖȉȊȈȓȣ; 5) ǷȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȍȌȓȖȎȍȕȐȑ ȗȖ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ ȐȕȚȍȘȊȍȕȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȖȊȣȠȍȕȐȦ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȈ Ȋ Ȟȍȓȧȝ ȗȖȊȣȠȍȕȐȧ țșȚȖȑȟȐȊȖșȚȐ Ȓ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȦ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ Ȋ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȝ; 6) ǸȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȈ Ȋ ȖȉȓȈșȚȐ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȑ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȋȐȌȘȖȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑȊȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ. ǵȈșȚȖȧȡȐȑ ȖȚȟȍȚ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ ȌȊțșȚȖȘȖȕȕȍȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȍ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȗȖ ȖȞȍȕȒȍ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ȘȈȌȐ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ ȕȈȓȐȟȐȧ ȊȖȌȣ Ȋ Șȍȟȕȣȝ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȈȝ ǨȔțǬȈȘȤȐ Ȑ ǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȐ . ǿȈșȚȤI ȖȗȐșȣȊȈȍȚ ȘȍȒȖȕșȚȘțȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ Ȋ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȍȐǿȈșȚȤ I I ȜȖȒțșȐȘțȍȚșȧȕȈȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȐȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȒȓȐȔȈȚȈȌȓȧ ȌȈȓȤȕȍȑȠȍȋȖ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ șȚȖȒȈ Ȋ ȋȖȘȕȣȝ ȊȍȘȝȕȐȝ ȟȈșȚȧȝ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȖȊ . ǷȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȍȔȣȍ ȗȖșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ Ȑȏ ȊȣȠȍșȚȖȧȡȍȑ ȟȈșȚȐ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȈ, Ȋ ȘȈȑȖȕȣ, ȘȈșȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȕȣȍ ȊȕȐȏ ȗȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ șȓțȎȐȚ ȊȝȖȌȖȔ Ȍȓȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧȊȖȌȣ, ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȣȍȊȖȞȍȕȒȍȊȖȌȕȣȝȘȍșțȘșȖȊȐșȐșȚȍȔȣ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ( ǶǷǪǸ) ȌȓȧȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧȗȖȚȘȍȉȕȖșȚȐȊȊȖȌȍȐȘȍșțȘșȖȊȊ ȕȐȏȖȊȤȧȝ ȖȉȓȈșȚȐ ( ǿȈșȚȤI I I). ǪȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ Ȑ ȊȣȗȈȌȍȕȐȧ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ Ȍȓȧ ȕȈȓȐȟȐȧ Ȑ ȗȖȚȘȍȉȕȖșȚȍȑ ȊȖȌȣ ȉȣȓȐșȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȣȐ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕȣșȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȔȐȔȍȘȈȔȐȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ. ǷȘȖȋȕȖȏȣȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 6 DzȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȓȐ șȘȍȌȕȍȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ , ȔȈȒșȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȍ Ȑ ȔȐȕȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ Ȑ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ Ȗȉ ȖșȈȌȒȈȝ ȗȖ șȍȚȒȍ Ș Ȉ ȏ Ȕ ȍ Ș Ȗ Ȕ 0,2 °  0,2 °, ȗ Ȗ Ȓ Ș ȣ Ȋ Ȉ Ȧ ȡ ȍ ȑ ș Ț Ș Ȉ ȕ ȣ Ǿ ȍ ȕ Ț Ș Ȉ ȓ Ȥ ȕ Ȗ ȑ Ǩ ȏ Ȑ Ȑ. ǹ Ȗ Ȍ ȕ Ȗ ȑ șȚȖȘȖȕȣ, ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȚȘȍȉȖȊȈȓȖ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȖ ȒȓȐȔȈȚț ȕȈ șȍȋȖȌȕȧȠȕȐȑ ȌȍȕȤ - Ȍȓȧ ȒȈȓȐȉȘȖȊȒȐ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȗȘȖȍȒȞȐȐ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ - Ȍȓȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧȊȉțȌțȡȍȔ. ǬȈȕȕȣȍ, ȕȈȕȍșȨȕȕȣȍȕȈșȍȚȒțȐ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȍ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȍ șȘȍȌȕȍȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ , ȔȈȒșȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȍ Ȑ ȔȐȕȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ , ȉȣȓȐ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȍȌȍȕȣ ȗțȚȨȔ ȕȈȏȍȔȕȣȝ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ ȏȈ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȖȑ (2001-2010 ȋȋ.) Ȑ ȒȘȐȌȎȐȕȋȈ ( ȘȈȏȉȐȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȈ ȕȈ ȉȓȖȒȐ ȜȐȒșȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȔȍȘȈ Ȑ ȘȈșȟȨȚ ȐșșȓȍȌțȍȔȖȋȖ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȈ Ȋ ȒȈȎȌȖȔ ȉȓȖȒȍ ȗȖ ȊȣȉȘȈȕȕȖȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȊȈȘȐȖȋȘȈȔȔȣ - ȗȘȐȔȗȍȘȍȊȖȌȟȐȒȈ) ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȐ. ǹȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȖ Ȗ ș Ȉ Ȍ Ȓ Ȉ Ȕ ȉ ȣ ȓ Ȑ Ȗ ș ȕ Ȗ Ȋ Ȉ ȕ ȣ ȕ Ȉ P E R S I A N N ș ȗ ț Ț ȕ Ȑ Ȓ Ȗ Ȋ ȣ ȝ Ȍ Ȉ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȝ, ȏ Ȉ ȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȍȔ 2006-2007 ȋȖȌȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȉȣȓȐ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȣ ȕȈ TRMM șȗțȚȕȐȒȖȊȣȝȗȖȖșȈȌȒȈȔ. ǷȘȖȋȕȖȏȣȉțȌțȡȍȋȖȒȓȐȔȈȚȈȕȈ 2011- 2050 ȉȣȓȐ ȖȉȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȣ ș ȗȖȔȖȡȤȦ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȗȧȚȐ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȋ ȓ Ȗ ȉ Ȉ ȓ Ȥ ȕ Ȗ ȋ Ȗ Ȓ ȓ Ȑ Ȕ Ȉ Ț Ȉ ȗ Ș Ȗ ȍ Ȓ Ț Ȉ I P C C ' s C M I P 3 (I PCC I nternational Panel for Clim ate Change ). ǫȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȐȔȐȚȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ Ȍȓȧ ȉțȌțȡȍȋȖ ȉȣȓȐ țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȣ Ȋ ȘȈȏȔȍȘȍ ȌȖ ȗȓȖȚȕȖȑ șȍȚȒȐ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȧ șȍȚȒț șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝȌȈȕȕȣȝȐȔȍȚȖȌȖȔȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȌȍȓȤȚȣ. ǴȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȕȈȉȈȏȍȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȝȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝȔȖȌȍȓȍȑȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ șȘȍȌȕȍȋȖȌȖȊȈȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȈ ȉțȌȍȚ ȘȈșȚȐ Ȋ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖǨȏȐȈȚșȒȖȔ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȕȖ ȕȈ ȚȘȐ ȋȘȈȌțșȈ Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȉȓȐȎȈȑȠȐȝ 40 ȓȍȚ. ǹȐȓȤȕȍȑȠȍȍ ȗȖȚȍȗȓȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȋȖȘȈȝ , Ȑ Ȋ șȍȊȍȘȕȖȑ ȟȈșȚȐ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ǨȏȐȐ . ǵȈ ȍȎȍȋȖȌȕȖȑ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ , ȗȖ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȈȔ, ȉțȌȍȚ ȕȍȉȖȓȤȠȐȔ Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȉȓȐȎȈȑȠȐȝ 40 ȓȍȚ. ǹțȡȍșȚȊțȍȚ ȊȈȘȐȈȞȐȧ ȖȚ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ Ȓ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ , ȖȌȕȈȒȖ, ȉȖȓȤȠȐȕșȚȊȖ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȦȚ, ȟȚȖ țȎȍ Ȋ șțȝȖȑ ȦȋȖȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȑ ȟȈșȚȐ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ǨȏȐȐșȚȈȕȍȚȍȡȍșțȠȍȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖȊȓȍȚȕȐȑȗȍȘȐȖȌ, ȐȟȚȖȊȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȝȔȍșȚȈȝ ȊȋȖȘȈȝȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖȖșȈȌȒȖȊȔȖȎȍȚțȊȍȓȐȟȐȚȤșȧ. ǶȒȘțȎȈȦȡȈȧșȘȍȌȈȊȋȖȘȈȝ dzȍȌȕȐȒȐ ȏȈȕȐȔȈȦȚ 18128 ȒȔ2, Ȗ Ț ȉ Ȉ ș ș ȍ ȑ ȕ Ȉ Ǩ Ș Ȉ ȓ Ȥ ș Ȓ Ȗ ȋ Ȗ Ȕ Ȗ Ș ȧ. Ƕ ȕ Ȑ Ȑ ȋ Ș Ȉ Ȧ Ț ȊȈȎȕțȦ ȘȖȓȤ Ȋ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȐ, ȚȈȒ ȒȈȒ ȋȍȕȍȘȐȘțȦȚ ȚȈȓțȦ ȊȖȌț Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȏȈșțȠȓȐȊȣȝ ȓȍȚȕȐȝ ȔȍșȧȞȍȊ . ǫȖȘȕȣȍ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȐ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȚ Ȋ șȍȉȧ : 1) ǴȍȓȍȕȤȒȐȑ ȞȐȘȒ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ, ȗȖȒȖȧȡȐȝșȧ ȕȈ ȌȖȊȖȓȤȕȖ ȒȘțȚȣȝ ȋȖȘȕȣȝ șȒȓȖȕȈȝ; 2) ǩȖȓȤȠȐȍ ȓȍȌȧȕȣȍ ȠȈȗȒȐ ȗȖȒȘȣȊȈȦȡȐȍ ȋȖȘȕȣȍ ȊȍȘȠȐȕȣ , șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȍ ș ȌȖȓȐȕȕȣȔȐ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈȔȐ , țȏȒȐȍ Ȑ ȌȓȐȕȕȣȍ ȧȏȣȒȐ ȓȤȌȈ , șȚȍȒȈȦȡȐȍȊǷȖȉȘȈȏȕȣȍȌȖȓȐȕȣ. ǷȘȖȞȍȕȚ ȗȓȖȡȈȌȐ ȖȓȍȌȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȌȊțȝ ȊȖȌȖșȉȖȘȕȣȝ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȖȊ șțȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ ȖȚȓȐȟȈȍȚșȧ. dzȍȌȕȐȒȐǨȔțǬȈȘȤȐ ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȍȚ 15500 ȒȔ2 (2% ȖȚȗ ȓȖȡ ȈȌȐ) Ȑ 1,800 ȒȔ2 - ǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȐ (0,15% ȖȚ ȗȓȖȡȈȌȐ ). ǹȈȔȣȍ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȍ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȐ ȕȈȝȖȌȧȚșȧȊȋȖȘȈȝǷȈȔȐȘȈȊǺȈȌȎȐȒȐșȚȈȕȍ. dzȍȌȕȐȒȐȊȋȖȘȈȝǺȧȕȤȀȈȕȧȐǷȈȔȐȘȈȖȚșȚțȗȈȦȚ , ȈȔȈșȠȚȈȉȣȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ ȔȍȕȧȦȚșȧ ȔȍȎȌț ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȔȐ Ȑ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȗȍȘȐȖȌȈȔȐ . DzȘțȗȕȍȑȠȈȧ ȊȍȓȐȟȐȕȈȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧȉȣȓȈȏȈȘȍȋȐșȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȈȊǹȍȊȍȘȕȖȔǺȧȕȤȀȈȕȍ , ȋȌȍ ȗȓȖȡȈȌȐ ȖȓȍȌȍȕȍȕȐȧ șȖȒȘȈȚȐȓȈșȤ ȕȈ 30-40% Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȊȚȖȘȖȑ ȗȖȓȖȊȐȕȣ 20- ȋȖ ȊȍȒȈ. ǺȍȔȗȣ ȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ ȉȣȓȐ ȔȍȌȓȍȕȕȍȍ Ȋ țȌȈȓȍȕȐȐ ȕȈ --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 7 ȊȖșȚȖȒȐȦȋ, ȚȍȔȕȍȔȍȕȍȍ, țșȒȖȘȍȕȐȍȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧȓȍȌȕȐȒȈȉȣȓȖȖȚȔȍȟȍȕȖ Ȋ ȊȖșȚȖȟȕȖȔ ǷȈȔȐȘȍ ș 7,8% ȗȖ șȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȦ ș 1978-1990 ȋȋ. ȌȖ 11,6% ȗȖ șȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȦ ș 1990- 2001 ȋȋ. ȗȍȘȐȖȌȖȔ. dzȍȌȕȐȒȐ ȗȖȚȍȘȧȓȐ 12,6% (0,33% / ȋȖȌ) Ȑȝ Ȋ 1965 ȋ. ȖȉȓȈșȚȐ Ȋ ȗȍȘȐȖȌ 1965-2003 ȋȋ. ǶȌȕȈ Ȑȏ Ȟȍȓȍȑ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȈ ȧȊȐȓȖșȤ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȚȈȧȕȐȧ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ ș ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȒȓȐȔȈȚȈȕȈȋȖȘȕȣȍȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȐ. ǵȖȊȣȍ ȗȘȐȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊȣȍ ȖȏȍȘȈ ȉțȌțȚ șȖȏȌȈȕȣ, ȒȖȋȌȈ, ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ, ȓȍȌȧȕȖȍ ȧȌȘȖ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ șȖȏȌȈșȚ ȏȈȗȘțȌț ȗȍȘȍȌ ȉȣșȚȘȖ ȖȚșȚțȗȈȦȡȐȔȐ ȌȖȓȐȕȕȣȔȐ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈȔȐ. ǺȈȒȐȍȖȏȍȘȈȔȖȋțȚȐȔȍȚȤȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ ȖȉȢȍȔ ȊȖȌȣȐ, ȒȖȋȌȈȘțȝȕȍȚ ȌȈȔȉȈ, ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȖȐȏȖȑȚȐ ȒȈȚȈșȚȘȖȜȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȕȈȊȖȌȕȍȕȐȍ . ǵȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȈ ȏ Ȉ ȡ Ȑ Ț Ȉ Ȗ Ț Ȋ Ȗ ȏ Ȕ Ȗ Ȏ ȕ ȣ ȝ ȕ Ȉ Ȋ Ȗ Ȍ ȕ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȑ Ȋ ȏ Ȗ ȕ Ȉ ȝ, ȕ Ȉ ȝ Ȗ Ȍ ȧ ȡ Ȑ ȝ ș ȧ Ȋ ț ȧ ȏ Ȋ Ȑ Ȕ Ȗ Ȕ ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȐ. ǹ ȕ ȍ ȋ Ȗ Ȋ Ȉ ȧ ȓ Ȑ ȕ Ȑ ȧ ȗ Ȗ Ȍ ȕ Ȑ Ȕ ȍ Ț șȧ Ȋ șȘ ȍ Ȍ ȕ ȍ Ȕ ȕ Ȉ 200 - 300 Ȕ ȍ Ț Ș Ȗ Ȋ Ȍ Ȗ 2050 ȋ Ȗ Ȍ Ȉ. ǹȒȓȖȕȣȝȖȓȔȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍȊșȍȋȌȈȉȣȓȐȗȖȒȘȣȚȣșȕȍȋȖȔ, ȉțȌțȚȗȖȌȊȍȘȋȈȚȤșȧ ȥȘȖȏȐȐ. ǺȈȧȕȐȍ ȊȍȟȕȖȑ ȔȍȘȏȓȖȚȣ Ȋ ȊȣșȖȒȐȝ ȋȖȘȈȝ șȌȍȓȈȦȚ șȒȓȖȕȣ ȕȍțșȚȖȑȟȐȊȣȔȐ, ȐȥȚȖȉțȌȍȚȋȍȕȍȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤȖȗȖȓȏȕȐ ȐșȍȓȐ . ǺȈȒȐȍȉȍȌșȚȊȐȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȗȈșȕȣ Ȍȓȧ ȗȖșȍȓȍȕȐȑ Ȑ ȐȕȜȘȈșȚȘțȒȚțȘȣ ȊȕȐȏ ȗȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ . ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȕȍ țȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚ ȕȈ țȊȍȓȐȟȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȏȕȐȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȧ ȊȍșȍȕȕȐȝ ȕȈȊȖȌȕȍȕȐȑ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ, ȕȖ Ȋ șȊȧȏȐ ș ȘȖșȚȖȔ șȍȓȍȑ, ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧ ȕȈȊȖȌȕȍȕȐȧ ȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȍȍ ȊșȍȋȖ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȒȈȚȈșȚȘȖȜȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ , ȟȍȔ ȘȈȕȤȠȍ. ǫȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȧȘȈȑȖȕȖȊȊȊȍȘȝȗȖȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ ǩȣȓȐ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȣ ȘȈșȚȘȖȊȣȍ ȖșȕȖȊȣ ȊȣșȖȒȖ ȌȍȚȈȓȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȒȘȐȖșȜȍȘȕȖȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝȔȖȌȍȓȍȑȌȓȧȊȣȠȍșȚȖȧȡȐȝȟȈșȚȍȑǨȔțǬȈȘȤȐ Ȑ ǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȐ. ǪȊȍȘȝ ȗȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȧ Ȑ ȘȖȓȤ șȕȍȋȈ Ȑ ȓȤȌȈ ȐȔȍȦȚ ȘȍȠȈȦȡȍȍ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȍ Ȍȓȧ ȗȖȕȐȔȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȕȈ ȘȈȑȖȕȣ ȕȐȎȕȍȋȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȧ. ǪȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ȕȈ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȦ ȊȍȘȝȕȍȋȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘțȍȚșȧ ș ȊȣșȖȒȖȑ ȌȍȚȈȓȐȏȈȞȐȍȑ , ȊȒȓȦȟȈȧ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈȝ Ȑ șȕȍȎȕȖȔ ȗȖȒȘȖȊȍ . ǪȒȓȈȌ ȖȚ ȚȈȧȕȐȧ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ, Ț Ȉ ȧ ȕ Ȑ ȧ ș ȕ ȍ ȋ Ȉ, Ȍ Ȗ Ȏ Ȍ ȍ Ȋ ȣ ȝ Ȗ ș Ȉ Ȍ Ȓ Ȗ Ȋ Ȑ ȉ Ȉ ȏ Ȗ Ȋ Ȗ ȋ Ȗ ș Ț Ȗ Ȓ Ȉ Ȋ Ȟ ȍ ȓ Ȗ Ȕ Ȋ ș ȍ ȋ Ȗ Ȗ ȉ Ȣ Ȩ Ȕ Ȉ șȚȖȒȈȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȚșȧȔȖȌȍȓȤȦ. ȅȚȈȔȖȌȍȓȤȉȣȓȈȖȚȒȈȓȐȉȘȖȊȈȕȈȌȓȧȐșȚȖȘȐȐ ȖȚȟȍȚȕȖȋȖȗȍȘȐȖȌȈ (2001-2010) , șȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȐșȚȖȘȐȐȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ ȗȘȐȚȖȒȈ Ȋ ȊȖȌȖȝȘȈȕȐȓȐȡȍ. DzȈȓȐȉȘȖȊȈȕȕȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ ȉ ȣ ȓ Ȉ Ȋ ȗ Ȗ ș ȓ ȍ Ȍ ș Ț Ȋ Ȑ Ȑ Ȝ Ȗ Ș ș Ȑ Ș Ȗ Ȋ Ȉ ȕ Ȉ Ȋ ț Ȕ ȍ ȕ Ȥ Ƞ ȍ ȕ ȕ Ȗ Ȕ Ȕ Ȉ ș Ƞ Ț Ȉ ȉ ȍ ș ȉ ț Ȍț ȡ Ȑ Ȕ Ȑ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȕȣȔȐ Ȑ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊȣȔȐ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȧȔȐ Ȍȓȧ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȧ A1B , ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȖȋȖ ȕȈ ȗȧȚȐ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ǴȖȌȍȓȧȝ ǫȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȑ ǾȐȘȒțȓȧȞȐȐ ( ǴǶǾ) ȏȈ 2011-2050 ȋȋ. ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȘȈȑȖȕȖȊ ȊȊȍȘȝ ȗȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȚșȓȍȌțȦȡȍȍ: x ǸȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ , șȗȖșȖȉȕȈȧ ȐȔȐȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȕȣȑ ȗțȚȨȔ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ șȚȖȒ Ȑ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȈ Ȍȓȧ ȐȏțȟȍȕȐȧ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȧ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑȒȓȐȔȈȚȈȕȈȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȑȞȐȒȓ. x ǭ ș Ț Ȥ ȉ Ȗ ȓ Ȥ Ƞ Ȑ ȍ Ȗ Ț ȓ Ȑ ȟ Ȑ ȧ Ȋ Ș Ȗ ȓ Ȑ ș Ț Ȗ Ȓ Ȉ Ț Ȉ ȓ Ȗ ȑ Ȋ Ȗ Ȍ ȣ Ȍ ȓ ȧ ș Ȗ ȏ Ȍ Ȉ ȕ Ȑ ȧ Ș ȍ ȟ ȕ ȣ ȝ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȖȊǨȔțǬȈȘȤȐȐǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȐ . ǺȈȓȈȧ ȊȖȌȈȐȔȍȍȚȉȖȓȍȍȊȣșȖȒȐȑȊȒȓȈȌ Ȋ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍșȚȖȒȈȉȈșșȍȑȕȈȘȍȒȐǨȔțǬȈȘȤȐȗȖșȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȦșȉȈșșȍȑȕȖȔ ȘȍȒȐǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȐ. --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 8 x Ƕ ȟ ȍ ȕ Ȥ Ȋ ȍ Ș Ȗ ȧ Ț ȕ Ȗ, ȟ Ț Ȗ Ȗ ȉ Ȣ Ȩ Ȕ ȓ ȍ Ȍ ȕ Ȑ Ȓ Ȉ ȕ Ȉ Ƿ Ȉ Ȕ Ȑ Ș ȍ Ȑ Ǻ ȧ ȕ Ȥ  Ȁ Ȉ ȕ ȍ ȕ Ȉ ȋ Ȗ Ș ȕ ȣ ȝ ȝȘȍȉȚȈȝșȕȐȏȐȚșȧș 45 ȌȖ 60% Ȓ 2050 ȋȖȌț. x ǹȖșȚȈȊ ȟȍȚȣȘȍȝ ȒȖȔȗȖȕȍȕȚȖȊ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ șȚȖȒȈ ( ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȈ ȊȣȗȈȊȠȐȝ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ, ȚȈȧȕȐȧ șȕȍȋȈ , ȚȈȧȕȐȧ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ , ȉȈȏȖȊȖȋȖ ȗȖȚȖȒȈ ), Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ șȒȖȘȍȍ ȊșȍȋȖ , ȐȏȔȍȕȐȚșȧ. ȅȚȖ șȍȘȤȨȏȕȖ ȗȖȊȓȐȧȍȚ ȕȈ șȚȖȒ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ , ȕȖ Ȗ ș Ȗ ȉ ȍ ȕ ȕ Ȗ ȕ Ȉ ș Ț Ȗ Ȓ Ȗ Ț ș ȍ ȏ Ȗ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȝ Ȑ ȏ Ȕ ȍ ȕ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȑ. Ƿ Ȑ Ȓ ș Ț Ȗ Ȓ Ȉ ș Ȕ ȍ ș Ț Ȑ Ț ș ȧ ș ȓ ȍ Ț Ȉ ȕ Ȉ Ȋȍșȕț Ȑ țȔȍȕȤȠȐȚșȧ Ȋ ȘȈȏȔȍȘȈȝ. ǴȖȌȍȓȤȕȣȑ ȗȘȖȌțȒȚ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȜȖȘșȐȘȖȊȈȕș ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȈȔȐ, ȗȘȖȐȏȊȍȌȨȕȕȣȔȐ ȗȧȚȤȦ ȔȖȌȍȓȧȔȐ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȞȐȘȒțȓȧȞȐȐ ( ǴǶǾ) ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȍ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧșȚȖȒȈȊȊȍȘȝȕȍȑ ȟ Ȉ ș Ț Ȑ Ȍ Ȋ ț ȝ ȉ Ȉ ș ș ȍ ȑ ȕ Ȗ Ȋ Ȍ Ȗ 2 0 5 0 ȋ Ȗ Ȍ Ȉ. ǰ ȏ Ȕ ȍ ȕ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȧ ș Ȑ ȓ Ȥ ȕ Ȗ Ȗ Ț ȓ Ȑ ȟ Ȉ Ȧ Ț ș ȧ Ȋ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍ. ǼȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ șȚȖȒȈ șȕȐȎȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈȐȉȖȓȍȍ ȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ Ȋ ȊȍȘȝȖȊȤȧȝȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧȓȍȌȕȐȒȈ. x ǶȉȡȐȑ ȖȉȢȍȔ ȋȖȌȖȊȖȋȖ șȚȖȒȈ Ȋ ȘȈȑȖȕȣ ȊȕȐȏ ȗȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ , ȒȈȒ ȖȎȐȌȈȍȚșȧ, șȖȒȘȈȚȐȚșȧȕȈ 22-28% ȗȖǹȣȘȌȈȘȤȍȐ 26-35% ȗȖǨȔțǬȈȘȤȍȒ 2050 ȋȖȌț. x ǹȐȓȤȕȍȑȠȍȍ țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȍ ȘȍȟȕȖȋȖ șȚȖȒȈ ȖȎȐȌȈȍȚșȧ Ȍȓȧ ȗȖȏȌȕȐȝ ȓȍȚȕȐȝ ȔȍșȧȞȍȊ ( ȈȊȋțșȚ, șȍȕȚȧȉȘȤ, ȖȒȚȧȉȘȤ), ȋȌȍȗȘȐȚȖȒȊȘȈȑȖȕȣ ȊȕȐȏȗȖȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ țȔȍȕȤȠȈȍȚșȧȗȘȐȔȍȘȕȖȕȈ 45% ȌȓȧȖȉȖȐȝȉȈșșȍȑȕȖȊȘȍȒ. ǻȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍȊȖȌȕȣȔȐȘȍșțȘșȈȔȐȊȕȐȏȗȖȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ ǰȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ ǶǷǪǸ (WEAP) Ȑ ȗȓȈȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȊȖȌȕȣȝ ȘȍșțȘșȖȊ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ șȐșȚȍȔȣ , ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȖȑ ǹȚȖȒȋȖȓȤȔșȒȐȔ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȖȔ ȗȖ ȖȒȘțȎȈȦȡȍȑșȘȍȌȍ) ȉȣȓȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȊȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȒȖȔȗȓȍȒșȕȖȑȖșȕȖȊȣȌȓȧ ȉȈȓȈȕșȈ șȗȘȖșȈ Ȑ ȗȘȍȌȓȖȎȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ Ȋ Șȍȟȕȣȝ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȈȝ ǨȔțǬȈȘȤȐ Ȑ ǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȐ. ǵȍȝȊȈȚȒȈ Ȑ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȊȖȌȣ ȉȣȓȐ ȖȞȍȕȍȕȣ ȕȈ țȘȖȊȕȍ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȈ Ȍȓȧ ȚȍȒțȡȍȑ Ȑ ȉțȌțȡȍȑ șȐȚțȈȞȐȑ. ȅȚȈ ȔȖȌȍȓȤ șȊȧȏȈȕȈ șȖȏȌȈȕȈ Ȍȓȧ ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȥȚȈȓȖȕȕȖȋȖ ȗȍȘȐȖȌȈ (2001- 2010) , ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȦȡȈȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘțȍȔȣȑ ȗȘȐȚȖȒ ș ȊȍȘȝȕȐȝ ȟȈșȚȍȑ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȈ , ȐșȚȖȘȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ , ȒȈșȈȦȡȐȍșȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ , șȍȓȤșȒȖȝȖȏȧȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȏȍȔȓȍȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ, ȕȈșȍȓȍȕȐȧ. ȐșȚȘțȒȚțȘȣțȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧȊȖȌȕȣȔȐȘȍșțȘșȈȔȐ Ȋ ȗȖȌȖȉȕȣȝ ȊȖȌȖȝȘȈȕȐȓȐȡȈȝ Ȑ ȒȈȕȈȓȈȝ . ǴȖȌȍȓȤ ȒȈȓȐȉȘțȍȚșȧ ș ȗȖȔȖȡȤȦ ȕ Ȉ ȉ ȓ Ȧ Ȍ Ȉ ȍ Ȕ ȣ ȝ ȗ Ș Ȑ Ț Ȗ Ȓ Ȗ Ȋ Ȋ Ȗ Ȍ Ȗ ȝ Ș Ȉ ȕ Ȑ ȓ Ȑ ȡ Ȉ, Ȗ Ț Ț Ȗ Ȓ Ȉ Ȑ Ȗ ȉ Ȣ ȍ Ȕ Ȉ, Ȑ Ȋ ȗ Ȉ Ȍ ȍ ȕ Ȑ Ȧ Ȋ Ǩ Ș Ȉ ȓ Ȥ ș Ȓ Ȗ ȍ Ȕ Ȗ Ș ȍ. Ǫ ȗ Ȗ ș ȓ ȍ Ȍ ș Ț Ȋ Ȑ Ȑ, Ȓ Ȉ ȓ Ȑ ȉ Ș Ȗ Ȋ Ȉ ȕ ȕ Ȉ ȧ Ȕ Ȗ Ȍ ȍ ȓ Ȥ Ȝ Ȗ Ș ș Ȑ Ș Ȗ Ȋ Ȉ ȕ Ȉ ș țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȕȣȔȐ Ȋ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȍ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȧȔȐ ȉțȌțȡȐȝ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘ, Ȑ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ Ȍȓȧ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȧ A1B, ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȣȑ ȕȈ ȗȧȚȐ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȧȝ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȞȐȘȒțȓȧȞȐȐ ( ǴǶǾ) Ȋ 2011- 2050 ȋȋ. Ȑ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȐȍ ȗȘȐȚȖȒȐ , ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȤȦȌȓȧȘȈȑȖȕȖȊȊȊȍȘȝȗȖȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ. ǶșȕȖȊȕȣȔȐ ȐȌȍȧȔȐ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȊȕȐȏ ȗȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȦȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ: • ǸȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȕȣȍ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȔȖȋțȚ ȐȔȐȚȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ Ȋ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȝ ȗȖȚȖȒȈȝ țȘȖȊȍȕȤ ȊȖȌȖȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȑ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȣ Ȍȓȧ ȐȏțȟȍȕȐȧ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȧȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȒȓȐȔȈȚȈȕȈȊȖȌȕȣȍȘȍșțȘșȣȊȘȍȋȐȖȕȍ. • ǹțȡȍșȚȊțȦȚ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȍ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȐȧ Ȋ ȘȖȓȐ ȚȈȓȖȑ ȊȖȌȣ Ȍȓȧ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ șȚȖȒȈ Ȋ Șȍȟȕȣȝ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȈȝ ǨȔțǬȈȘȤȐ Ȑ ǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȐ . ǺȈȓȈȧ ȊȖȌȈ ȐȔȍȍȚ ȉ Ȗ ȓ ȍ ȍ Ȋ ȣ ș Ȗ Ȓ Ȑ ȑ Ȋ Ȓ ȓ Ȉ Ȍ Ȋ ș Ț Ȗ Ȓ Ȋ ȉ Ȉ ș ș ȍ ȑ ȕ ȍ Ǩ Ȕ ț Ȍ Ȉ Ș Ȥ Ȑ ȗ Ȗ ș Ș Ȉ Ȋ ȕ ȍ ȕ Ȑ Ȧ ș ȉȈșșȍȑȕȖȔȘȍȒȐǹȣȘȌȈȘȤȧ. • ǭȎȍȋȖȌȕȣȑȖȉȡȐȑșȗȘȖșȕȈȊȖȌțȊȉȈșșȍȑȕȍǹȣȘȌȈȘȤȐțȊȍȓȐȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧȕȈ 3,0 - 3,9% Ȋ 2050 ȋȖȌț. ǭȎȍȋȖȌȕȣȑ ȕȍțȌȖȊȓȍȚȊȖȘȍȕȕȣȑ șȗȘȖș țȊȍȓȐȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧș 8,8% ȊȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍȊȘȍȔȧȌȖ 31,6 - 39,7% Ȋ 2050 ȋȖȌț. --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 9 • ǭȎȍȋȖȌȕȈȧ ȖȉȡȈȧ ȗȖȚȘȍȉȕȖșȚȤ ȕȈ ȊȖȌț Ȋ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȍ ǨȔțǬȈȘȤȐ țȊȍȓȐȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈ 3,8 - 5,0% Ȓ 2050 ȋȖȌț. ǭȎȍȋȖȌȕȈȧ ȕȍțȌȖȊȓȍȚȊȖȘȨȕȕȈȧ ȗȖȚȘȍȉȕȖșȚȤ țȊȍȓȐȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ ș 24,8% ș ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȋȖ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ȌȖ 45,8 - 54,5% Ȓ 2050 ȋȖȌț. • Ƕ ȉ ȡ Ȉ ȧ ȗ Ș Ȗ Ț ȧ Ȏ ȍ ȕ ȕ Ȗ ș Ț Ȥ Ǩ Ș Ȉ ȓ Ȥ ș Ȓ Ȗ ȋ Ȗ Ȕ Ȗ Ș ȧ ș Ȗ Ȓ Ș Ȉ Ț Ȑ Ț ș ȧ ȗ Ș Ȑ ȉ ȓ Ȑ ȏ Ȑ Țȍ ȓ Ȥ ȕ Ȗ ș 17000 ȒȔ2 Ȋ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȌȖ 13800 ȒȔ2 Ȓ 2050 ȋȖȌț. ǸȈȏȓȐȟȐȧ ȔȍȎȌț ǹȍȊȍȘȕȖȑȟȈșȚȤȦ ȐȆȎȕȖȑȟȈșȚȤȦȖȏȍȘȈȗȖȘȈȎȈȦȚ. ǹȍȊȍȘȕȈȧȟȈșȚȤȐȔȍȍȚ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓ, ȟȚȖȉȣ ȘȈșȠȐȘȐȚȤșȧ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȕȖ ȕȈ 72% Ȋ țșȓȖȊȐȧȝ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȍȔȖȋȖ ȗȘȐȚȖȒȈ ( ȕȖ ȉțȌȍȚ ȔȍȕȤȠȍ ȗȘȐȚȖȒȈ ȊȖȌȣ Ȋ ȆȎȕȖȑ ȟȈșȚȐ ȖȏȍȘȈ), ȊȚȖȊȘȍȔȧȒȈȒȆȎȕȈȧȟȈșȚȤȖȏȍȘȈșȖȒȘȈȚȐȚșȧȗȘȐȔȍȘȕȖȕȈ 38% . ǹȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ Ǭȓȧ ȗȘȍȖȌȖȓȍȕȐȧ ȕȣȕȍȠȕȍȑ Ȑ ȉțȌțȡȍȑ ȕȍȝȊȈȚȒȐ ȊȖȌȣ Ȋ șȚȘȈȕȈȝ ȍșȚȤ Ȟȍȓȣȑ ȘȧȌ ȊȈȘȐȈȕȚȖȊ Ȋ Ȑȝ ȘȈșȗȖȘȧȎȍȕȐȐ , ȟȚȖȉȣ ȘȍȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ Ȑ Ȉ Ȍ Ȉ ȗ Ț Ȑ Ș Ȗ Ȋ Ȉ Ț Ȥ ș ȧ. ȅ Ț Ȑ ȗ Ȉ Ș Ȉ Ȕ ȍ Ț Ș ȣ Ȕ Ȗ ȋ ț Ț ȉ ȣ Ț Ȥ ș Ȋ ȍ Ȍ ȍ ȕ ȣ Ȋ Ț Ș Ȑ Ȗ ș ȕ Ȗ Ȋ ȕ ȣ ȍ ȒȈȚȍȋȖȘȐȐ: (i) ȘȈșȠȐȘȍȕȐȍ ȗȖșȚȈȊȖȒ, (I I), ȗȖȊȣȠȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȚȘțȌȈ, Ȑ (I I I ) șȖȒȘȈȡȍȕȐȍ șȗȘȖșȈ. Ǭȓȧ ȒȈȎȌȖȑ Ȑȏ ȥȚȐȝ ȚȘȍȝ ȒȈȚȍȋȖȘȐȑ ȚȐȗȐȟȕȣȍȊȈȘȐȈȕȚȣȉȣȓȐȐȏțȟȍȕȣ, ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣȌȈȕȣȊșȓȍȌțȦȡȐȝȘȈȔȒȈȝ: ǾȍȓȤ ǺȍȝȕȖȓȖȋȐȧ ǸȈșȠȐȘȍȕȐȍȊȖȌȖșȕȈȉȎȍȕȐȧ A: ǷȖȊȣȠȍȕȐȍȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȈȊȖȌȖȝȘȈȕȐȓȐȡȈ ǷȖȊȣȠȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȐȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȐ: B: ǻȓțȟȠȍȕȐȍșȍȓȤșȒȖȝȖȏȧȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȒȐ C: ǷȖȊȣȠȍȕȐȍȗȖȊȚȖȘȕȖȋȖȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȌȣȊȖȘȖȠȈȍȔȖȔȏȍȔȓȍȌȍȓȐȐ D: ǷȖȊȣȠȍȕȐȍȗȖȊȚȖȘȕȖȋȖȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȌȣȌȓȧȉȣȚȖȊȣȝȕțȎȌ ǹȖȒȘȈȡȍȕȐȍ șȗȘȖșȈ: E: ǹȖȒȘȈȡȍȕȐȍȖȘȖȠȈȍȔȣȝȗȓȖȡȈȌȍȑ F: ǹȖȒȘȈȡȍȕȐȍȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȍȋȖșȗȘȖșȈ G: ǬȍȜȐȞȐȚȖȘȖȠȍȕȐȧ DzȈȎȌȣȑ Ȑȏ ȥȚȐȝ ȊȈȘȐȈȕȚȖȊ șȊȧȏȈȕ ș ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣȔȐ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȏ Ȉ Ț Ș Ȉ Ț Ȉ Ȕ Ȑ ȕ Ȉ ȍ Ȍ Ȑ ȕ Ȑ Ȟ ț, ȕ Ȉ ȟ Ȑ ȕ Ȉ ȧ ș US $ 0,02 ȏ Ȉ Ȕ3ȌȓȧțȓțȟȠȍȕȐȧȔȍȚȖȌȖȊ Ȋ ȍ Ȍ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȧ ș ȍ ȓ Ȥ ș Ȓ Ȗ ȋ Ȗ ȝ Ȗ ȏ ȧ ȑ ș Ț Ȋ Ȉ Ȍ Ȗ $ 2 , 0 0 ȏ Ȉ Ȕ 3 Ȋ șȓțȟȈȍ șȖȒȘȈȡȍȕȐȧ ȗȖșȚȈȊȖȒȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȍȋȖșȗȘȖșȈ. ǷȖȕȧȚȕȖ, ȊșȓțȟȈȍȊȣȉȖȘȈȗȍȘȊȖȋȖȊȈȘȐȈȕȚȈ, ș Ȉ Ȕ Ȗ ȋ Ȗ Ȍ ȍ Ƞ ȍ Ȋ Ȗ ȋ Ȗ, ȕ Ȗ Ȋ Ț Ȗ Ȏ ȍ Ȋ Ș ȍ Ȕ ȧ Ȗ ȕ ȕ ȍ Ȕ Ȗ Ȏ ȍ Ț ȉ ȣ Ț Ȥ Ȍ Ȗ ș Ț Ȉ Ț Ȗ ȟ ȕ ȣ Ȕ Ȍ ȓ ȧ ȗȘȍȖȌȖȓȍȕȐȧȕȍȝȊȈȚȒȐȊȖȌȣȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦ, ȈȉȖȓȍȍȌȖȘȖȋȐȍȊȈȘȐȈȕȚȣȌȖȓȎȕȣ șȚȈȚȤ ȔȖșȚȖȔ Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȍȖȌȖȓȍȕȐȧ ȕȍȝȊȈȚȒȐ ȊȖȌȣ . ǷȘȐ ȘȈȕȎȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȊȈȘȐȈȕȚȖȊ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ Ȓ Ȑȝ ȏȈȚȘȈȚȈȔ ȕȈ ȍȌȐȕȐȞț ȒȖȕȒȘȍȚȕȖȑ șȚȘȈȕȣ ȗȖșȚȘȖȍȕȣ ȊȖȌȕȣȍ ȒȘȐȊȣȍ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȏȈȚȘȈȚ. ǰșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȒȘȐȊȖȑ șȚȖȐȔȖșȚȐ ȕȈȓȐȟȐȧ ȊȖȌȣ ȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȐȊȈȍȚșȧ șȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȍȔ ȜȐȕȈȕșȖȊȖȑ șȚȖȐȔȖșȚȐȔȍȘȌȓȧȗȖȒȘȣȚȐȧȥȚȖȑȕȍȝȊȈȚȒȐ. ǪȈȎȕȖȖȚȔȍȚȐȚȤ, ȟȚȖȥȚȖȔȖȎȍȚ ȖȚȓȐȟȈȚȤșȧ ȖȚ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȐȏȌȍȘȎȍȒ Ȍȓȧ ȖȉȡȍșȚȊȈ Ȋ ȞȍȓȖȔ . DzȘȐȊȈȧ ȏȈȚȘȈȚ ȗȖȥȚȖȔț ȌȖȓȎȕȈ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤșȧ ȒȈȒ ȔȍȘȈ ȘțȒȖȊȖȌșȚȊȈ Ȍȓȧ șȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȧȜȐȕȈȕșȖȊȣȝȏȈȚȘȈȚȌȓȧȗȘȐȕȧȚȐȧȘȍȠȍȕȐȑ. ǩȖȓȤȠȐȕșȚȊȖȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȝȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝȔȍȘȗȘȖȊȍȘȧȦȚșȧ Ȋ șȍȓȤșȒȖȝȖȏȧȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȒȍ , ȌȍȜȐȞȐȚȍ ȖȘȖȠȍȕȐȧ, țȊȍȓȐȟȍȕȐȦ ȗȖȊȚȖȘȕȖȋȖ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȌȣ Ȋ șȍȓȤșȒȖȔ ȝȖȏȧȑșȚȊȍ Ȑ șȖȒȘȈȡȍȕȐȦ ȖȘȖȠȈȍȔȣȝ ȗȓȖȡȈȌȍȑ . DzȘȖȔȍ ȚȖȋȖ , ȔȍȘȣ, ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȍȔȣȍ Ȋ șȍȓȤșȒȖȔ --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 10 ȝȖȏȧȑșȚȊȍ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȔȐ ș ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ șȖȒȘȈȡȍȕȐȧ ȕȍțȌȖȊȓȍȚȊȖȘȍȕȕȖȋȖ șȗȘȖșȈ, ȗȖȚȖȔț ȟȚȖ ȊȕțȚȘȍȕȕȍȍ ȗȖȚȘȍȉȓȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȌȣ Ȋ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȈȝ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȍȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ ȗȖ șȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȦ ș ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȊȖȌȣ Ȍȓȧ șȍȓȤșȒȖȋȖ ȝȖȏȧȑșȚȊȈ . ǷȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ șȈȔȖȑ ȏȈȚȘȈȚȕȖȑ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȖȕȕȖȑ ȔȍȘȣ ȏȈȒȘȖȍȚ ȕȍȌȖșȚȈȚȖȒ ȊȖȌȣ Ȑ șȚȖȐȔȖșȚȤ șȖșȚȈȊȐȚ 1,730 ȔȓȕȌȖȓȓ. ǹȀǨ Ȋ ȋȖȌ Ȓ 2050 ȋȖȌț. ǷȖȒȘȣȚȐȍ ȕȍȌȖșȚȈȚȒȈ ȊȖȌȣ, ȊȣȏȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȚȖȓȤȒȖȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍȔȒȓȐȔȈȚȈȉțȌȍȚșȚȖȐȚȤ 550 Ȕȓȕ. ȌȖȓȓ. ǹȀǨȊȋȖȌ 2050 ȋȖȌț. • ǩȖȓȤȠȐȕșȚȊȖ ȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȝ ȔȍȘ ȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ (I ), țȓțȟȠȍȕȐȍ șȍȓȤșȒȖȝȖȏȧȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȒȐ, (I I ) ȌȍȜȐȞȐȚ ȖȘȖȠȍȕȐȧ, (I I I ) țȊȍȓȐȟȍȕȐȍ ȗȖȊȚȖȘȕȖȋȖ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȊȖȌȣ Ȋ șȍȓȤșȒȖȔ ȝȖȏȧȑșȚȊȍ, Ȑ (I V), șȖȒȘȈȡȍȕȐȍ ȖȘȖȠȈȍȔȣȝȗȓȖȡȈȌȍȑ. • ǯȈȚȘȈȚ ȣȕȈȗȖȒȘ ȣȚȐȍȊșȍȋȖȕȍȌȖȚȈȚȒ ȈȊȖȌȣ (43000 ȔȓȕȔ3) ȖȞȍȕȐȊȈȦȚșȧ Ȋ US $ 1730 Ȕȓȕ. ȊȋȖȌȊ 2050 ȋȖȌț. ‡ǷȖȒȘȣȚȐȍ ȌȖȗȖȓȕȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȑ ȕȍȝȊȈȚȒȐȊȖȌȣ, ȊȣȏȊȈȕȕȖȑ ȚȖȓȤȒȖȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍȔ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ (25.000 Ȕȓȕ. Ȕ3) ȉțȌȍȚ șȚȖȐȚȤ 550 Ȕȓȕ. ȌȖȓȓ. ǹȀǨ Ȋ ȋȖȌ Ȓ 2050 ȋȖȌț. ǷȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȦȡȍȍșȧ șȚȘȖȐȚȍȓȤșȚȊȖ ȕȖȊȣȝ ȗȓȖȚȐȕ Ȋ DzȣȘȋȣȏșȚȈȕȍ Ȑ ǺȈȌȎȐȒȐșȚȈȕȍ ȌȖȉȈȊȓȧȍȚ ȕȈȗȘȧȎȍȕȕȖșȚȤ Ȋ șȓȖȎȐȊȠȍȑșȧ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ . ǹȖȊȍȚșȒȈȧ ȥȘȈ , șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȈȧ ȗȓȈȕț ȋȐȌȘȖȥȕȍȘȋȍȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȖȊ DzȈȔȉȈȘȈȚȈI Ȑ I I Ȋ DzȣȘȋȣȏșȚȈȕȍ , Ȑ ǸȖȋțȕșȒȖȑ ȗȓȖȚȐȕȣ Ȋ ǺȈȌȎȐȒȐșȚȈȕȍ ȕȈȝȖȌȧȚșȧ șȕȖȊȈ Ȋ ȘȈȏȘȈȉȖȚȒȍ, Ȋ șȊȧȏȐ ș ȘȈșȠȐȘȍȕȐȍȔ ȌȖșȚțȗȈ Ȓ ȌȍȕȤȋȈȔ ȔȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȝ ȌȖȕȖȘȖȊ - ǸȖșșȐȐȐDzȐȚȈȧ, ȐȕȊȍșȚȐȘțȦȡȐȝȊȥȚȐȗȘȖȍȒȚȣ. Ǫ ș Ț Ș Ȉ ȕ Ȉ ȝ ȕ Ȑ ȏ Ȗ Ȋ Ȥ ȧ ȥ Ț Ȑ ș Ȗ ȉ ȣ Ț Ȑ ȧ ț ș Ȑ ȓ Ȑ ȓ Ȑ ȉ ȍ ș ȗ Ȗ Ȓ Ȗ ȑ ș Ț Ȋ Ȗ, ȗ Ȗ Ț Ȗ Ȕ ț ȟ Ț Ȗ ȥ Ț Ȗ Ȕ Ȗ Ȏ ȍ Ț Ȗ ȏ ȕ Ȉ ȟ Ȉ Ț Ȥ, ȟ Ț Ȗ ș Ț Ș Ȉ ȕ ȣ ȕ Ȉ ȝ Ȗ Ȍ ȧ ȡ Ȑ ȍ ș ȧ Ȋ Ȋ ȍ Ș ȝ ȗ Ȗ Ț ȍ ȟ ȍ ȕ Ȑ Ȧ Ȕ Ȗ ȋ ț Ț ȕ ȍ șȊȧȏȣȊȈȚȤ șȍȉȧ ȖȉȧȏȈȚȍȓȤșȚȊȈȔȐ Ȑ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤȦ ȗȖșȚȈȊȒȐ ȥȕȍȘȋȖȕȖșȐȚȍȓȍȑ Ȋ ȏȐȔȕȐȑ ȗȍȘȐȖȌ Ȑȏ DzȈȏȈȝșȚȈȕȈ , ǻȏȉȍȒȐșȚȈȕȈ Ȑ ǺțȘȒȔȍȕȐșȚȈȕȈ. ǹȚȘȈȕȣȊȊȍȘȝȗȖȚȍȟȍȕȐȦȔȖȋțȚȕȍșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȤșȖȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȦ ȗȘȈȊȐȓ ȘȈȉȖȚȣ ȓȍȚȕȍȋȖ ȘȍȎȐȔȈ ș șȍȘȤȍȏȕȣȔȐ ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔȐ Ȍȓȧ ȖȘȖȠȈȍȔȖȋȖȏȍȔȓȍȌȍȓȐȧȐȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȒȐȊȞȍȓȖȔȌȓȧșȚȘȈȕ , ȓȍȎȈȡȐȝȊȕȐȏȗȖ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ. ǹ ȥȚȖȑ ȚȖȟȒȐ ȏȘȍȕȐȧ , ȕȍȚ ȕȐȟȍȋȖ țȌȐȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ Ȋ ȚȖȔ , ȟȚȖ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȈȧȕȈȗȘȧȎȍȕȕȖșȚȤȊȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧȝȔȍȎȌțșȚȘȈȕȈȔȐșțȡȍșȚȊțȍȚ . ǽȖȚȧ ȕȖȊȈȧȐȕȜȘȈșȚȘțȒȚțȘȈ ȉțȌȍȚ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȈ ȗȘȐȗȍȘȍȒȘȣȚȐȐ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȧȘȍȒ Ȑ ȌȖȉȈȊȐȚ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȐ Ȋ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȐ , ȟȚȖ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȎȐȏȕȍȕȕȖ ȊȈȎȕȖȑ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤȦ, ȗȘȍȖȌȖȓȍȚȤ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ ȗȘȍȗȧȚșȚȊȐȧ ȕȈ ȗțȚȐ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑȐȕȚȍȋȘȈȞȐȐ. ǵȈȘȈȡȐȊȈȕȐȍȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȈ Ƿ Ș Ȗ ȍ Ȓ Ț Ȗ ȗ Ș ȍ Ȍ ȍ ȓ Ȑ ȓ ȕ Ȉ Ȟ Ȑ Ȗ ȕ Ȉ ȓ Ȥ ȕ ȣ ȍ Ȗ Ș ȋ Ȉ ȕ Ȑ ȏ Ȉ Ȟ Ȑ Ȑ Ȑ 5 - 8 ȥ Ȓ ș ȗ ȍ Ș Ț Ȗ Ȋ Ȑ ȏ ȒȈȎȌȖȑ șȚȘȈȕȣ Ȍȓȧ țȟȈșȚȐȧ Ȋ ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȍ ȕȈȘȈȡȐȊȈȕȐȧ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȈ , ȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȕȈ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȐȍ ȕȈȊȣȒȖȊ Ȋ ȋȐȌȘȖȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȖȔ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȐ. ȅȒșȗȍȘȚȣ, ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȍ ȋȐȌȘȖȔȍȚȍȖȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȣ, ȌȘțȋȐȍ ȊȍȌȖȔșȚȊȈ ȐȓȐ ȕȈțȟȕȖȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤșȒȐȍ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȍȕȕȣȍ ȏȈ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȌȕȣȔȐ ȘȍșțȘșȈȔȐ Ȑ ȚȍȝȕȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȈȔȐ șȗȍȞȐȈȓȐȏȐȘțȦȡȐȍșȧ ȕȈ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȐ Ȑ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔȈȝ. ǷȘȖȍȒȚȕȈȧ ȒȖȔȈȕȌȈ ȖȘȋȈȕȐȏȖȊȈȓȈ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ șȍȔȐȕȈȘȖȊ ȗȖ ȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈȔ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ Ȋ șȚȘȈȕȈȝ , Ȑ ȉȣȓȐ ȗȘȐȋȓȈȠȍȕȣ ȥȒșȗȍȘȚȣ Ȑȏ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȔȐȕȐșȚȍȘșȚȊ , ȈȒȈȌȍȔȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȐȕșȚȐȚțȚȖȊ Ȑ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȖȊ . ǪȣșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ, șȌȍȓȈȕȕȣȍ ȥȒșȗȍȘȚȈȔȐ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȈ Ȑ ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȖȘȋȈȕȈȔȐ ȊȓȈșȚȐ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȐȓȐ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȦ ȗȖ --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 11 ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȦ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ, ȍȋȖ ȊȓȐȧȕȐȧ ȕȈ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȌȕȣȔȐ ȘȍșțȘșȈȔȐ Ȑ Ȗ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖȑșȚȘȈȚȍȋȐȐȈȌȈȗȚȈȞȐȐ. ǵȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȥȒșȗȍȘȚȣ , ȗȖȓțȟȐȓȐ ȖȚ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȈ ȔȖȡȕȣȍ ȒȖȔȗȤȦȚȍȘȣ ȕȖțȚȉțȒȐ, ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȕȖȍ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȍ Ȑ ȌȘțȋȖȍ ȖȉȖȘțȌȖȊȈȕȐȍ, ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖȍ ȌȓȧȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧȐțȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȍȑ. ǴȍȎȌțȕȈȘȖȌȕȣȍȥȒșȗȍȘȚȣ ȊȍȓȐ ȗȖȌȋȖȚȖȊȒț ȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȥȒșȗȍȘȚȖȊ Ȍȓȧ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ( ȘȈȏțȒȘțȗȕȍȕȐȍ, R ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ), ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ (PCRaster) Ȑ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȧȊȖȌȣ ( ǶǷǪǸ). ǵȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȍȥȒșȗȍȘȚȣȉțȌțȚ ȗȘȖȌȖȓȎȈȚȤȘȈȉȖȚțȗȘȖȍȒȚȈ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȗȖȕȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȑȠȒȈȓȍșȗȖȔȖȡȤȦ ȉȖȓȍȍȗȖȌȘȖȉȕȣȔȐșȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐșșȣȓȒȈȔȐ. --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 12 1 . ǴǶǬǭdzǰǸǶǪǨǵǰǭǰǯǴǭǵǭǵǰȇDzdzǰǴǨǺǨ 1 .1 . ǶȉȡȐȍȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȧ Ǫ 4- Ȕ ȌȖȒȓȈȌȍ Ȗȉ ȖȞȍȕȒȍ ǴǷǰDz ȗȖ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖǨȏȐȈȚșȒȖȔț ȘȍȋȐȖȕț ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȦȚșȧ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȍ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ , (Christensenetal. 2007). ǸȐșțȕȖȒ 1-1 ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȍȚ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȍȔȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ ȊȍȘȝȕȐȑ ȘȧȌ ) Ȑ ȖșȈȌȒȐ ( ȕȐȎȕȐȑ ȘȧȌ ) ȔȍȎȌț 1980-1999 Ȑ 2080-2099 ȗȍȘȐȖȌȈȔȐ Ȍȓȧ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȧ ǨǪ ǴǶǾ ȒȈȒ șȘȍȌȕȍȍ Ȑȏ 21 ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȝ Ȓ ȓ Ȑ Ȕ Ȉ Ț Ȑ ȟ ȍ ș Ȓ Ȑ ȝ Ȕ Ȗ Ȍ ȍ ȓ ȍ ȑ ( ǫ Dz Ǵ). Ǿ Ȑ Ȝ Ș ȣȗ Ș Ȑ Ȋ ȍ Ȍ ȍ ȕ ȣȌ ȓ ȧ ȋ Ȗ Ȍ Ȗ Ȋ ȣȝ, ș Ȍ ȍ Ȓ Ȉ ȉ Ș ȧ ȗȖ ȜȍȊȘȈȓȤ ( ǬȇǼ) Ȑ ș ȐȦȕȧ ȗȖ ȈȊȋțșȚ ȗȍȘȐȖȌȣ ( ǰǰǨ). Ǫ ȋȖȘȈȝ ǷȈȔȐȘȈ, ȗ Ȗ Ȋ ȣ Ƞ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȍ Ț ȍ Ȕ ȗ ȍ Ș Ȉ Ț ț Ș ȣ Ȍ Ȗ 4 ȋ Ș Ȉ Ȍ ț ș Ȗ Ȋ Ȋ 2 1 0 0 ȋ Ȗ Ȍ ț Ȋ ș Ȗ ȟ ȍ Ț Ȉ ȕ Ȑ Ȑ ș țȔȍȘȍȕȕȣȔ țȊȍȓȐȟȍȕȐȍȔ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȕȣȔȐ . ǷȖȊȣȠȍȕȕȈȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȈ ȗȘȐȊȖȌȐȚ Ȓ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȊȣșȖȒȐȔ ȗȖȚȘȍȉȕȖșȚȧȔ ȥȊȈȗȖȚȘȈȕșȗȐȘȈȞȐȐ Ȑ ȗȍȘȍȊȍȠȐȊȈȍȚ țȔȍȘȍȕȕȖȍ țȊȍȓȐȟȍȕȐȍ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ . Ǫ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ǨȏȐȐ ȖȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȋȌȍ ȖșțȡȍșȚȊȓȧȍȚșȧ șȍȓȤșȒȖȝȖȏȧȑșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌșȚȊȖ , ȒȓȐȔȈȚȉțȌȍȚșțȠȍȐȎȈȘȟȍ. Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ1-1. ɆȽɗɂɄ 4 ɈɬɱɟɬɩɨɨɰɟɧɤɟɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɨɜɞɥɹȺɡɢɢ (Christensenetal. 2007). Dz Ȉ Ȓ ȗ Ȗ Ȓ Ȉ ȏ Ȉ ȕ Ȗ ȕ Ȉ Ǹ Ȑ ș ț ȕ Ȓ ȍ 1-1, Ȋ ȉ ț Ȍ ț ȡ ȍ Ȕ Ȕ Ȗ ȋ ț Ț ȗ Ș Ȗ Ȑ ȏ Ȗ ȑ Ț Ȑ ȏ ȕ Ȉ ȟ Ȑ Ț ȍ ȓ Ȥ ȕ ȣ ȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȊȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝțșȓȖȊȐȧȝ. ǬȓȧȚȖȋȖ, ȟȚȖȉȣȐȔȍȚȤȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȖȞȍȕȐȚȤ ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ȕȈ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍ țșȓȖȊȐȧ Ȑ ȘȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖȍȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȊȖȌȕȣȝȘȍșțȘșȖȊȔȍȚȍȖȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȕȍȚȘȍȉțȍȚșȧ. ǵȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȍȌȈȕȕȣȍȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȌȓȧȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȋȖ / ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈȊȗȘȖȠȓȖȔ, ȐȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȣȕȈȖșȕȖȊȍȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧȔȖȌȍȓȐȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ȌȈȦȚȓțȟȠȐȍȖȞȍȕȒȐȌȓȧȉțȌțȡȐȝȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝțșȓȖȊȐȑ . ǪȥȚȖȔȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ ȚȈȒ ȕȈȏȣȊȈȍȔȣȑ ȉȈȏȖȊȣȑ ( ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ) ȗȍȘȐȖȌ - ȥȚȖ 2001- 2010 ȋȖȌȣ, Ȑ ȕȈ ȉțȌțȡȐȑ ȗȍȘȐȖȌ ȌȖȓȎȍȕ ȉȣȚȤ ȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȕ ȗȍȘȐȖȌ 2011-2050. ǫȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍȔȖȌȍȓȐ, ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȍȔȣȝȊȥȚȖȔȗȘȖȍȒȚȍȚȘȍȉțȦȚȊȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȊȝȖȌȕȣȝ ȕȍȗȘȍȘȣȊȕȣȍ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ ȘȧȌȣ ȖȚ șțȚȖȟȕȖȑ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ Ȑ --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 13 ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍȌȈȕȕȣȍȖȉȖșȈȌȒȈȝ. ǪșȍȌȈȕȕȣȍȌȖȓȎȕȣȉȣȚȤȊȍȌȐȕȖȑșȍȚȒȍ , ȗȖȒȘȣȊȈȦȡȍȑȖȉȓȈșȚȐȗȘȖȍȒȚȈ. 1 .2 . ǶȉȘȈȉȖȚȒȈȌȈȕȕȣȝȗȖȒȓȐȔȈȚț ǶȉȘȈȉȖȚȒȈ Ȑ ȈȕȈȓȐȏ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ ȔȍȚȍȖȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȑ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȚȘȍȉțȦȚ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ ȈȕȈȓȐȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ . Ǫ ȥȚȖȔ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ ȖȉȘȈȉȖȚȒȈ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ ȏȈ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȖȔ Ȑ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȣ , Ȋ Ȗ ș ȕ Ȗ Ȋ ȕ Ȗ Ȕ, Ȗ ș ț ȡ ȍ ș Ț Ȋ ȓ ȧ ȍ Ț ș ȧ ș ȗ Ȗ Ȕ Ȗ ȡ Ȥ Ȧ ȧ ȏ ȣ Ȓ Ȉ R ș Ș ȍ Ȍ ȣ ( h t t p : / / w w w . r - proj ect.org/ ) . R ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȉȍșȗȓȈȚȕȣȔ ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȕȣȔ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȍȔ Ȍȓȧ șȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝȊȣȟȐșȓȍȕȐȑȐȒȖȔȗȤȦȚȍȘȕȖȑȋȘȈȜȐȒȐ. ǰșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ R Ȋ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȍȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȘȈșȠȐȘȐȓȖșȤ Ȑ șȚȈȓȖ ȗȖȟȚȐ șȚȈȕȌȈȘȚȖȔ Ȍȓȧ șȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȊȣȟȐșȓȍȕȐȑ Ȑ ȖȉȘȈȉȖȚȒȐ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ . Ƕȕ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȘȈȉȖȚȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝȖȗȍȘȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝ șȐșȚȍȔȈȝ, ȚȈȒȐȝȒȈȒ ȗȓȈȚȜȖȘȔȈȝ UNIX, Windows Ȑ MacOS. ȅȚȖ ȗȘȖȍȒȚ GNU ( ȗȘȖȍȒȚ ȗȖ șȊȖȉȖȌȕȖȔț ȘȈșȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȍȕȐȦ ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȕȖȋȖȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȧ, ȗȘȐȔ. ȗȍȘȍȊȖȌȟȐȒȈ), ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑȗȖȌȖȉȍȕȧȏȣȒțȐ șȘȍȌȍ S, ȐȒȖȚȖ Șȣȍȉ ȣȓȐȘ ȈȏȘ ȈȉȖȚȈȕ ȣȊ Bell Laboratories ( ȉȣȊȠȈ ȧ AT&T, Ȋ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍȊȘȍȔȧ Lucent Technologies) ǬȎȖȕȖȔ ǿȈȔȉȍȘșȖȔ ș ȒȖȓȓȍȋȈȔȐ. R ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȐȊȈȍȚ ȔȕȖȋȐȍ ȊȐȌȣ șȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ Ȑ ȋȘȈȜȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȊ , Ȑ ȖȉȓȈȌȈȍȚ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȔȐ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȧȔȐ ȕȈȘȈȡȐȊȈȕȐȧ. ǵȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȧ R ȓȍȋȒȖ șȚȘȖȐȚȤ ȌȐȈȋȘȈȔȔȣ Ȑ ȋȘȈȜȐȒȐ , Ȋ ȚȖȔ ȟȐșȓȍ ȔȈȚȍȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȖȉȖȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧ Ȑ ȜȖȘȔțȓȣ . R ȌȖșȚțȗȍȕ ȒȈȒ șȊȖȉȖȌȕȖȍ ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȕȖȍ ȖȉȍșȗȍȟȍȕȐȍ Ȋ șȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊȐȐ ș țșȓȖȊȐȧȔȐ GNU Free Software Foundation, G e n e r a l P u b l i c L i c e n s e Ȋ Ȋ Ȑ Ȍ ȍ Ȑ ș ȝ Ȗ Ȍ ȕ Ȗ ȋ Ȗ Ȓ Ȗ Ȍ Ȉ. ȅ Ț Ȗ Ȗ ȏ ȕ Ȉ ȟ Ȉ ȍ Ț, ȟ Ț Ȗ ȕ ȍ Ț țșȚȈȕȖȊȖȒȐȓȐȥȒșȗȓțȈȚȈȞȐȖȕȕȣȝȘȈșȝȖȌȖȊ, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȝș R. R șȗȘȖȍȒȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȊȖȉȓȈșȚȐșȖȖȚȊȍȚșȚȊțȦȡȍȋȖȒȖȔȗȤȦȚȍȘȕȖȋȖȧȏȣȒȈ , ȐȥȚȖ ȗȖȏȊȖȓȧȍȚȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȍȓȧȔțȊȍȓȐȟȐȊȈȚȤȌȖȗȖȓȕȐȚȍȓȤȕțȦȜțȕȒȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȖșȚȤ, ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȧ ȕȖȊȣȍ ȜțȕȒȞȐȐ. Ǭȓȧ ȒȖȔȗȤȦȚȍȘȐȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ șȓȖȎȕȣȝ ȏȈȌȈȟ , ȒȖȌȣ C, C + + ȐǼȖȘȚȘȈȕȒȖȌȣȔȖȋțȚȉȣȚȤțșȚȈȕȖȊȓȍȕȣȐ ȌȓȧȕȈȏȣȊȈȍȔȖȋȖ Ȋ Ș ȍ Ȕ ȍ ȕ Ȑ Ȗ ȉ Ș Ȉ ȉ Ȗ Ț Ȓ Ȑ ( ȗ Ș Ȗ ȋ Ȗ ȕ Ȉ ȗ Ș Ȗ ȋ Ș Ȉ Ȕ Ȕ ȣ) . R Ȋ Ȓ ȓ Ȧ ȟ Ȉ ȍ Ț Ȋ ș ȍ ȉ ȧ ȗ Ȗ ȓ ȍ ȏ ȕ ț Ȧ ȜțȕȒȞȐȦ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȚȈȒțȦ ȒȈȒ : ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȈȧ ȖȉȘȈȉȖȚȒȈ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȝȘȈȕȍȕȐȍ, ȒȖȔȗȓȍȒȚ ȖȗȍȘȈȚȖȘȖȊ Ȍȓȧ ȘȈșȟȍȚȖȊ ȗȖ șȍȚȒȍ , Ȋ ȟȈșȚȕȖșȚȐ , ȔȈȚȘȐȞ, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȘȈȏȊȐȚȣȑ , ȗȘȖșȚȖȑ Ȑ ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȑ ȧȏȣȒ ȗ Ș Ȗ ȋ Ș Ȉ Ȕ Ȕ Ȑ Ș Ȗ Ȋ Ȉ ȕ Ȑ ȧ, Ȓ Ȗ Ț Ȗ Ș ȣ ȑ Ȋ Ȓ ȓ Ȧ ȟ Ȉ ȍ Ț Ȋ ș ȍ ȉ ȧ ț ș ȓ Ȗ Ȋ ȕ ȣ ȑ Ȟ Ȑ Ȓ ȓ , ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȔȣȑ ȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȍȓȍȔ ȘȍȒțȘșȐȊȕȣȝ ȜțȕȒȞȐȑ Ȑ șȘȍȌșȚȊȈ ȊȝȖȌȈ Ȑ ȊȣȝȖȌȈ. R ȔȖȎȕȖ ȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤ ȒȈȒ șȘȍȌț , ȊȕțȚȘȐ ȒȖȚȖȘȖȑ ȘȍȈȓȐȏȖȊȈȕȣ șȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȔȍȚȖȌȣ.R ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤȓȍȋȒȖ țȊȍȓȐȟȍȕȈȟȍȘȍȏ ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȕȣȍ ȗȈȒȍȚȣ. ǭșȚȤ ȖȒȖȓȖ ȊȖșȤȔȐ ȗȈȒȍȚȖȊ , șȕȈȉȎȍȕȕȣȝ ȘȈșȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȐȍȔ R, Ȑ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȋȖ, ȌȖșȚțȗȕȣȑ ȟȍȘȍȏ șȍȔȍȑșȚȊȖ CRAN ( Com prehensive R Archive Network ǪșȍșȚȖȘȖȕȕȧȧ R ǨȘȝȐȊȕȈȧ ǹȍȚȤ) ǰȕȚȍȘȕȍȚșȈȑȚȖȊ, ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȦȡȐȝ ȖȟȍȕȤ ȠȐȘȖȒȐȑ șȗȍȒȚȘ șȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȖȑ șȚȈȚȐșȚȐȒȐ ( ȐșȚȖȟȕȐȒ: http: / / www.r- project.org/ ). ǶȉțȟȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ R ȉȣȓȖ ȖȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ ȋȓȈȊȕȣȝ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȖȊ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȧȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȈȒȖȔȗȖȕȍȕȚȣȊȌȈȕȕȖȔȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ. ǬȓȧșȓțȠȈȚȍȓȍȑȉȣȓȐ ȊȊȍȌȍȕȣ ȖșȕȖȊȣ R, Ȉ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȣ, Ȍȓȧ șȖȏȌȈȕȐȧ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȐȐțȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȖȊȝțȌȠȐȝșȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ. 1 .3 . ǶșȕȖȊȈȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 14 ǵȈȉȖȘ ȉȈȏȣ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ , ȗȘȐȊȍȌȍȕȕȖȑ Ȋ ȥȚȖȔ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ șȘȍȌȕȍșțȚȖȟȕțȦ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘț , șțȚȖȟȕțȦ ȔȈȒșȐȔȈȓȤȕțȦ Ȑ ȔȐȕȐȔȈȓȤȕțȦ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ, Ȑ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ Ȗȉ ȖșȈȌȒȈȝ ȏȈ 2001-2010 ȋȖȌȣ. ǩȓȖȒ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘ Ȋ ȋȘȈȌțșȈȝ ǾȍȓȤșȐȧ , Ȉ Ȍȓȧ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ȔȔȌȍȕȤ . ǷȓȖȡȈȌȤ ȗȖȒȘȣȚȐȧ: ȖȚ 57,12083 ° ȊȌ. ȌȖ 78,92083 ° ȊȖșȚȖȟȕȖȑ ȌȖȓȋȖȚȣ Ȑ ȖȚ 34,10833 ° ș. Ƞ. ȌȖ 49,90833 ° șȍȊȍȘȕȖȑ ȠȐȘȖȚȣ . ǷȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȍșȖșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ 0,2 ȝ 0,2 ȋȘȈȌțșȈ. ȅȚȖȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖȕȈȉȖȘȌȈȕȕȣȝ șȖșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ 109 șȚȖȓȉȞȖȊȝ 79 șȚȘȖȒ. DzȖȖȘȌȐȕȈȚȣȗȍȘȊȖȑȊȍȓȐȟȐȕȣȚȈȒȖȊȣ, ȟȚȖȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȍșȞȍȕȚȘȖȔȊ 57,22083 ° E, 34,20833 ° N, ȈȊȚȖȘȖȍȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȍȕȈ 57,42083 ° E, 34,40833 ° șȠ. ǷȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍȌȊȈȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧȖȚȞȍȕȚȘȐȘȖȊȈȕȣȕȈ 78,62083 ° E, 49,60833 ° șȠ. Ȑ 78,82083 ° E, 49,80833 ° N ( ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-2) ǬȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȖ ȊȣȗȈȌȍȕȐȦ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ( ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-2) ȉȣȓȐ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȘȍȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȣ ȗȖ ȉȐȓȐȕȍȑȕȖȑ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȐ ș ȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȍȔ șȍȚȒȐ 0,2 ° ȝ 0,2 ° Ȑȏ P E R S I A N N 0 , 2 5 ° ȕ ȍ ȑ Ș Ȗ ȕ ȕ Ȗ ȑ ș ȍ Ț Ȑ ȕ Ȉ Ȗ ș ȕ Ȗ Ȋ ȍ Ȍ Ȉ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȝ Ȗ ș Ȉ Ȍ Ȓ Ȗ Ȋ (http: / / chrs.web.uci.edu/ ) (Adleretal. 2003; Huffm a netal. 2009; Hsuetal. 1997; Sorooshianetal. 2000). ǶȞȍȕȒȈ PERSIANN ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȈ ȕȈ ȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȐ ȚȍȒșȚțȘȣ ȖȉȓȈȒȈ ȗȖ ȌȈȕȕȣȔ ȌȓȐȕ ȊȖȓȕ ȐȕȜȘȈȒȘȈșȕȖȋȖ ȐȏȓțȟȍȕȐȧ (~ 10.2-11.2 ȔȒȔ). ȅȚȐ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȣ Ȑȏ ȋȍȖșȚȈȞȐȖȕȈȘȕȣȝ șȗțȚȕȐȒȖȊ Ȑ ȖȉȕȖȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ș ȗȖȔȖȡȤȦ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȊȣșȖȒȖȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȖȞȍȕȖȒ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ȕȐȏȒȖȖȘȉȐȚȈȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȗȈșșȐȊȕȣȔȐ șȊȍȘȝȊȣșȖȒȖȟȈșȚȖȚȕȣȔȐ ȌȈȚȟȐȒȈȔȐ (Hsuetal. 2007; Sorooshianetal. 2000) . ǹȕȐȎȍȕȐȍ ȖȚȒȓȖȕȍȕȐȑ Ȑ șȖȝȘȈȕȍȕȐȍ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ Ȑ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ ȐȏȖȉȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ ș ȊȣșȖȒȐȔ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȍȔ, PERSIANN ȖșȈȌȒȐ ȒȖȘȘȍȒȚȐȘțȦȚșȧ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȈ ȗȖ ǫȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȑ DzȓȐȔȈȚȖȓȖȋȐȐ ǶșȈȌȒȖȊ ( ǷǫDzǶ) ș 2,5 ° ȍȎȍȔȍșȧȟȕȣȔ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȍȔ (Adleretal. 2003; Huffmanetal. 2009). ǶȚșțȚșȚȊȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ Ȋ ȖȞȍȕȒȍ PERSI ANN ȏȈȗȖȓȕȍȕȣ ȖȞȍȕȒȖȑ ȗȈșșȐȊȕȣȝ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ șȊȍȘȝȊȣșȖȒȖ ȟȈ șȚȖȚȕ ȣȔȐȊȖȓȕȈȔȐșȠȈ ȋȖȔ ȗȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȐȒȈȎȌȣȍ 30 ȔȐȕțȚ. Ǫ ȗ Ȗ ș ȓ ȍ Ȍ ț Ȧ ȡ ȍ Ȕ Ƞ Ȉ ȋ ȍ, Ȍ Ȉ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȍ ȋ Ș ț ȗ ȗ Ȑ Ș ț Ȧ Ț ș ȧ Ȋ Ȕ Ȉ ș Ƞ Ț Ȉ ȉ ȍ Ȍ Ȗ 2 , 5 ° ȍȎȍȔȍșȧȟȕȖ Ȑ ȗȖȗȘȈȊȖȟȕȣȑ ȒȖȥȜȜȐȞȐȍȕȚ ȊȣȟȐșȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ șȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȧ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ǷǫDzǶ Ȑ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ PERSIANN Ȋ șȍȚȒȍ 2,5 ° . ȅȚȖȚ ȒȖȥȜȜȐȞȐȍȕȚ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚșȧ Ȍȓȧ ȘȈșȟȍȚȈ ȌȖȎȌȍȊȣȝ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ PERSI ANN Ȗ ș Ȉ Ȍ Ȓ Ȗ Ȋ Ȋ ȗ Ș Ȗ ș Ț Ș Ȉ ȕ ș Ț Ȋ ȍ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȝ Ȑ Ȋ Ș ȍ Ȕ ȍ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȝ Ȕ Ȉ ș Ƞ Ț Ȉ ȉ Ȉ ȝ ( Ȋ ȟ Ȉ ș ) , ȗȖȒȘȣȊȈȦȡȐȝ Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ 2,5° . DzȖȕȍȟȕȣȑ ȗȘȖȌțȒȚ ȗȘȍȌȖșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȍȓȧȔȊ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ 3- ȟȈșȐșȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȍȔ 0,25° . ǵȈȉȖȘ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ǷǫDzǶ (Adleretal. 2003) ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚșȧ Ȍȓȧ ȕȈșȚȘȖȑȒȐ ȉȈȏȣ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ PERSIANN ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȍȎȍȔȍșȧȟȕȖȋȖ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȈ ȗȖȊȍȘȝȕȖșȚȕȣȝ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊșȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȍȔȕȈ 2,5 ° ȠȐȘȖȚȣ Ȑ 2,5 ° ȌȖȓȋȖȚȣ. ǬȈȚȈȕȈȟȈȓȈ - ș ȧ ȕ Ȋ Ȉ Ș ȧ 1 9 7 9 ȋ Ȗ Ȍ Ȉ. Ƕ ȉ Ȣ ȍ Ȍ Ȑ ȕ ȍ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȍ Ȍ Ȉ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȍ ȗ Ȗ Ȗ ș Ȉ Ȍ Ȓ Ȉ Ȕ Ȋ Ȓ ȓ Ȧ ȟ Ȉ Ȧ Ț Ȋ ș ȍ ȉ ȧ ȖȞȍȕȒȐ ȕȐȏȒȖȖȘȉȐȚȈȓȤȕȣȝ șȗțȚȕȐȒȖȊȣȝ șȊȍȘȝȊȣșȖȒȖȟȈșȚȖȚȕȣȝ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ , ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȧ ȐȕȜȘȈȒȘȈșȕȖȋȖ șȗȍȒȚȘȈ șȗțȚȕȐȒȈ ș ȋȍȖșȐȕȝȘȖȕȕȖȑ ȖȘȉȐȚȣ Ȑ ȕȈȏȍȔȕȣȍ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȧ ȌȈȚȟȐȒȈȔȐ ȌȖȎȌȧ . ǪȣșȖȒȈȧ ȚȖȟȕȖșȚȤ ȕȐȏȒȖȖȘȉȐȚȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȚșȧ Ȋ ȒȈȓȐȉȘȖȊȒȍ ȐȓȐ ȦșȚȐȘȖȊȒȍ ȗȖȊȚȖȘȧȦȡȐȝșȧ ȋȍȖșȐȕȝȘȖȕȕȣȝ ȐȕȜȘȈȒȘȈșȕȣȝ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ . ǰȏȔȍȘȍȕȐȧ șȊȍȘȝȊȣșȖȒȖȟȈșȚȖȚȕȣȝ ȊȖȓȕ șȚȈȓȐ ȌȖșȚțȗȕȣȔȐ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ș șȍȘȍȌȐȕȣ 1987 ȋȖȌȈ, Ȉ ȌȖ ȥȚȖȋȖ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȓȐșȤ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȐȕȜȘȈȒȘȈșȕȣȍ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȧ. ȅȚȐ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȧ ȉȣȓȐ ȖȚȒȈȓȐȉȘȖȊȈȕȣ ș ȗȖȔȖȡȤȦ șȊȍȘȝȊȣșȖȒȖȟȈșȚȖȚȕȣȝ ȊȖȓȕ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȈȕȈȓȐȏȖȊ , ȌȖșȚțȗȕȣȝ Ȋ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȖȏȌȕȐȍ ȋȖȌȣ . ǹȋȘțȗȗȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȑ șȗțȚȕȐȒȖȊȣȑ ȗȘȖȌțȒȚ , ȕȈȒȖȕȍȞ, ȈȌȈȗȚȐȘțȍȚșȧȗțȚȍȔȈȕȈȓȐȏȈȌȖȎȌȍȔȍȘȈ. ǪȕȈȉȖȘȌȈȕȕȣȝȈȘȝȐȊȈȊȒȓȦȟȍȕȣ --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 15 ȚȈȒȎȍ ȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȍ ȗȖȓȧ ȊȊȖȌȈ , ȒȖȔȉȐȕȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȈȧ șȗțȚȕȐȒRȊȈȧ ȖȞȍȕȒȈ , Ȑ ȖȞȍȕȒȐȗȖȋȘȍȠȕȖșȚȐȌȓȧȒȈȎȌȖȋȖȗȖȓȧ. ǹȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȗȘȍȌȊȈȘȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȔț ȈȕȈȓȐȏț Ȍȓȧ 2006 Ȑ 2007 ȋȖȌȖȊ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ PERSI ANN ȌȈȊȈȓȐ șȓȐȠȒȖȔ ȊȣșȖȒȐȍ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧȌȓȧ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȝȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȦȡȐȝ ȐȕȚȍȘȍșșȜȍȘ, ȗȖ șȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȦ ș ȕȈȏȍȔȕȣȔȐ ȕ Ȉ ȉ ȓ Ȧ Ȍ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȧ Ȕ Ȑ. Ƿ Ȗ ȥ Ț Ȗ ȑ ȗ Ș Ȑ ȟ Ȑ ȕ ȍ ȏ Ȉ ȥ Ț Ȑ Ȍ Ȋ Ȉ ȋ Ȗ Ȍ Ȉ ȉ ȣ ȓ Ȑ ș ȗ Ȗ ȓ Ȥ ȏ Ȗ Ȋ Ȉ ȕ ȕ Ȉ ȉ Ȗ Ș ȌȈȕȕȣȝ, ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȕȣȝȖȚȔȐșșȐȐǴǰDzǺǶ ( ǴȐșșȐȧ ȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȐȧ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȈ ȚȘȖȗȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ )(http: / / trm m .gsfc.nasa.gov/ ). ǴǰDzǺǶ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ș Ȗ Ȋ Ȕ ȍ ș Ț ȕ Ȗ ȑ Ȕ Ȑ ș ș Ȑ ȍ ȑ Ȕ ȍ Ȏ Ȍ ț ǵ Ǩ ǹ Ǩ Ȑ J A X A . Ƕ ȕ Ȉ ȉ ȣ ȓ Ȉ ȏ Ȉ ȗ ț ȡ ȍ ȕ Ȉ 27 ȕ Ȗ ȧ ȉ Ș ȧ 1997 ȋ Ȗ Ȍ Ȉ Ȋ Ǻ Ȉ ȕ ȍ ȋ Ȉ Ƞ Ȑ Ȕ ȍ ( ȇ ȗ Ȗ ȕ Ȑ ȧ) Ȑ ȕ Ȉ ȉ ȓ Ȧ Ȍ Ȉ ȍ Ț ȏ Ȉ Ȓ Ȗ ȓ Ȑ ȟ ȍ ș Ț Ȋ Ȗ Ȕ Ȗ ș Ȉ Ȍ Ȓ Ȗ Ȋ Ȋ ȚȘȖȗȐȒȈȝ. ǴǰDzǺǶ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȟȈșȚȤȦ ȔȐșșȐȐ ǵǨǹǨ ȕȈ ȗȓȈȕȍȚȍ ǯȍȔȓȧ . ǰȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȣ ǴǰDzǺǶ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȚ Ȋ șȍȉȧ șȊȍȘȝȊȣșȖȒȖȟȈșȚȖȚȕȣȑ ȉȓȖȒ ȜȖȘȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȐȏȖȉȘȈȎȍȕȐȑ (TMI), ȘȈȌȈȘ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ (PR) , ȊȐȌȐȔȣȑ Ȑ ȐȕȜȘȈȒȘȈșȕȣȑ șȒȈȕȍȘ (VIRS), ȖȉȓȈȒȖ Ȑ ȐȏȓțȟȈȦȡȈȧ ȥȕȍȘȋȍȚȐȟȍșȒȈȧ șȐșȚȍȔȈ ǯȍȔȓȐ (CERES) Ȑ ȌȈȚȟȐȒ ȖȚȖȉȘȈȎȍȕȐȧ ȋȘȖȏȖȊȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȘȧȌȈ (LI S) șȔ., ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, Kaushiketal. 2010). ǬȈȕȕȣȍ ȗȖ ȊȣșȖȚȍȕ Ȉ Ȍ ț Ș Ȗ Ȋ ȕ ȍ Ȕ Ȕ Ȗ Ș ȧ Ȑ ȕ Ț ȍ Ș ȗ Ȗ ȓ ȧ Ȟ Ȑ Ȑ DE M _15s Ȍ Ȉ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȝ Ȋ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȐ 0,2 ° ȝ 0,2 ° ( ǼȐȋțȘ Ȉ 1-3). Dz ȖȖȘȌȐȕȈ Țȣȗ ȘȍȌșȚȈȊ ȓȧ ȦȚșȖȉȖȑȊ ȘȈȊȕȖȑ șȚȍȗȍȕȐ , ȒȈȒ Ȍȓȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȕȣȝ Ȑ Ȍȓȧ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȊȣȗȈȌȈȦȡȐȝ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ. ȅȚȐ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣ Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖȑ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȐ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ. Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ1-2. ɋɪɟɞɧɟɝɨɞɨɜɵɟɨɫɚɞɤɢɜɩɟɪɢɨɞ 2001-2010 ɝɝ (ɦɦ / ɝɨɞ), ɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɧɵɟɧɚ PERSIANN (http://chrs.web.uci.edu/) ɢ TRMM (2006, 2007) ɞɚɧɧɵɯ. --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 16 Ɏɢɝɭɪɚe1-3. Ⱦɚɧɧɵɟɨɜɵɫɨɬɚɯ (ɦɟɬɪɨɜɧɚɞɭɪɨɜɧɟɦɦɨɪɹ). ɋɟɪɵɟɤɨɧɬɭɪɵɭɤɚɡɵɜɚɸɬɝɪɚɧɢɰɵɫɬɪɚɧɵ ǺȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȕȣȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȚ Ȋ șȍȉȧ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ ȔȐȕȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȍ , ȔȈȒșȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȍ Ȑ șȘȍȌȕȐȍ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ ( ȋȘȈȌțșȣ ǾȍȓȤșȐȧ). ǵȈȍșȍȕȕȣȑ ȕȈ șȍȚȒț ȕȈȉȖȘ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ , ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȝ Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȈ , ȉȣȓ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕ ȗțȚȍȔ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȐȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȕȣȝȌȈȕȕȣȝȕȈȔȍȚȍȖȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȝ șȚȈȕȞȐȧȝȊ 0,2 ° ȝ 0,2 ° . ǰȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȧȉȣȓȈșȌȍȓȈȕȈșȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȣȝ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȊ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȐ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȣȝ ȒȈȒ " ȒȘȐȋȐȕȋ" ( ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, Ripley 1981). ǺȍȖȘȐȧ, ȗȖșȓȍ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȐ ȒȘȐȋȐȕȋȈ ȖșȕȖȊȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȘȈȉȖȚȍ Ǭ. DzȘȐȋȈ. ȅȚȖȚ ȔȍȚȖȌ ȠȐȘȖȒȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȍȚșȧ ȚȈȒȎȍ Ȋ ȔȍȚȍȖȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȑ Ȑ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȒȍ ( ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, VenäläinenandHeikinheim o 1997; Haylocketal. 2008). DzȘȐȋȐȕȋ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ șȖȉȖȑ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȣȑ ȔȍȚȖȌ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȐ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȑ ȌȈȍȚ ȕȈȐȓțȟȠȐȑ ȓȐȕȍȑȕȣȑ ȖȉȢȍȒȚȐȊȕȣȑ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȚȍȓȤ ȕȍȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȝ ȊȍȓȐȟȐȕ . ȅȚȖȚ ȔȍȚȖȌ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȌȈȍȚ ȖȞȍȕȒț ȌȐșȗȍȘșȐȐ ȖȠȐȉȒȐ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȈ. ȅȚȖȚ ȔȍȚȖȌ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȐ ȔȖȎȍȚ țȟȐȚȣȊȈȚȤ ȊȕȍȠȕȐȍȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ, ȒȈȒșȊȖȑșȚȊȖȔȍșȚȕȖșȚȐȐȓȐȊȣșȖȚȣ. ǷȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȕȣȑ ȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚ, ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȍȔȣȑ Ȋ ȥȚȖȔ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ R ȖȒȘțȎȈȦȡȍȑ șȘȍȌȣ, ȉȣȓ șȖȏȌȈȕ Ȍȓȧ șȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȊȣȟȐșȓȍȕȐȑ Ȑ ȋȘȈȜȐȒȐ . ǺȖȟȕȍȍ ȏ Ȍ ȍ ș Ȥ ȗ Ș Ȑ Ȕ ȍ ȕ ȧ ȍ Ț ș ȧR -ȗ Ȉ Ȓ ȍ Ț ȗ Ȗ Ȍ ȕ Ȉ ȏ Ȋ Ȉ ȕ Ȑ ȍ Ȕ " g s t a t " . Ƿ Ȉ Ȓ ȍ Ț " g s t a t " ȉ ȣ ȓ ȏȈȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȐȘȖȊȈȕ Pebesma (2004). ǺȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȈ ȖȟȍȕȤ șȐȓȤȕȖ ȏȈȊȐșȐȚ ȖȚ ȊȣșȖȚȣ , ȟȍȔ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȊȣșȖȒȖȍ ȘȈșȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȍȚȍȔ ȖȉȣȟȕȖ ȝȖȓȖȌȕȍȍȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȈ. ǪȖȚ ȗȖȟȍȔț, Ȋ ȥȚȖȔ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ ȉȣȓ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕ ȘȈȑȖȕ ȊȣșȖȚȣ Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ . Ǫ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȈ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ, ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȕȣȍ ȐȦȓȍ , ȧȕȊȈȘȍ Ȑ șȘȍȌȕȍȋȖȌȖȊȣȍ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ ȗȘȐȊȍȌȍȕȣȕȈǼȐȋțȘȍ 1-4. --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 17 Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ1-4. ɂɸɥɶ, ɹɧɜɚɪɶɢɫɪɟɞɧɟɝɨɞɨɜɚɹ (2001-2010) ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɚ (° C) ɧɚɨɫɧɨɜɟ ɢɡɦɟɪɟɧɢɣ, ɩɪɨɜɟɞɟɧɧɵɯɧɚɫɬɚɧɰɢɢɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɣɢɢɧɬɟɪɩɨɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɯɩɨ ɫɟɬɤɟɞɨ 0,2 ° *0,2 °, ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɭɹɦɟɬɨɞɢɧɬɟɪɩɨɥɹɰɢɢɄɪɢɝɢɧɝɚ. ǷȘȖȊȍȘȒȈȒȈȟȍșȚȊȈȒȘȐȋȐȕȋȈ DzȈȟȍșȚȊȖ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ ȖȉȓȈșȚȐ ȏȈȊȐșȐȚ ȖȚ ȕȈȓȐȟȐȧ ȐșȝȖȌȕȣȝ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ( ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ), șȊȖȑșȚȊ ȔȍșȚȕȖșȚȐ, ȚȈȒȐȍ ȒȈȒ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȊȣșȖȚȣ Ȑ, ȍșȚȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ, ȖȉȢȧșȕȍȕȐȍ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ, ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ ȖȚ ȊȣșȖȚȣ. DzȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖșȚȈȕȞȐȑ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ Ȍȓȧ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȐ Ȍȓȧ ȚȍȒțȡȍȋȖ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȈ ȉ ȣȓ Ȗ ȕ ȍ ȉ Ȗ ȓ Ȥ Ƞ Ȑ Ȕ, Ȋ Ț Ȗ Ȋ Ș ȍ Ȕ ȧ Ȓ Ȉ Ȓ Ș Ȉ șȠ Ȑ Ș ȍ ȕ ȕ Ȗ ȍ ȗ Ș Ȗ șȚ Ș Ȉ ȕ șȚ Ȋ Ȗ Ȑ șȓ Ȗ Ȏ ȕ Ȗ ș Ț Ȥ ȘȈȑȖȕȈ țȟȐȚȣȊȈȓȐșȤ . ǿȚȖȉȣ ȗȖȓțȟȐȚȤ ȖȞȍȕȒț ȥȜȜȍȒȚȐȊȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȍȔȖȋȖ ȔȍȚȖȌȈ ȒȘȐȋȐȕȋȈ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ ȉȣȓȐ ȗȘȖȊȍȘȍȕȣȌȓȧ ȒȈȎȌȖȋȖ Ȍȕȧ ȗțȚȍȔ ȘȈșȟȍȚȈ ȒȖȘȘȍȓȧȞȐȐ ȔȍȎȌț ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȔȐ Ȑ ȌȖ ȉȓȐȎȈȑȠȍȋȖ ȖȒȕȈ șȍȚȒȐ ȘȈșȟȍȚȕȖȑ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ Ȍȓȧ ȒȈȎȌȖȑ ȘȈșȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȖȑ șȚȈȕȞȐȐ ( ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1- 5) . ǷȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȕșȚȊț Ȍȕȍȑ ȒȖȘȘȍȓȧȞȐȧ șȖșȚȈȊȐȓȈȊȣȠȍ 0,95, ȟȚȖȔȖȎȕȖȘȈșșȔȈȚȘȐȊȈȚȤȒȈȒȝȖȘȖȠțȦ șȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤȗȖțȒȈȏȈȕȕȣȔȊȣȠȍȗȘȐȕȧȚȣȔȊȖȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȈȔ. --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 18 Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ1-5. Ʉɨɪɪɟɥɹɰɢɹɦɟɠɞɭɧɚɛɥɸɞɚɟɦɨɣɢɩɪɟɞɫɤɚɡɚɧɧɨɣɫɪɟɞɧɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɣ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɨɣ. Ʉɚɠɞɚɹɬɨɱɤɚ - ɫɨɨɬɧɨɲɟɧɢɟɧɵɧɟɲɧɟɝɨɨɞɧɨɝɨɞɧɹ, ɪɚɫɫɱɢɬɚɧɚɞɥɹɜɫɟɯɞɨɫɬɭɩɧɵɯɫɬɚɧɰɢɣɧɚɛɥɸɞɟɧɢɹ. ǬȐșȗȍȘșȐȧ ȒȘȐȋȐȕȋȈ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȚȍȓȧ ȕȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȍȔȣȝȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȑ ǸȈȏȕȐȞȈ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȈ ȚȈȒȎȍ Ȋ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȐȕȌȐȒȈȚȖȘȈ ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȈ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȐ. ǿȍȔ ȔȍȕȤȠȍ ȘȈȏȕȐȞȈ , ȚȍȔ ȓțȟȠȍ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȗȖȓȧ . ǹȘȍȌȕȍȍ, ȔȈȒșȐȔȈȓȤȕȖȍȐȔȐȕȐȔȈȓȤȕȖȍȖȚȒȓȖȕȍȕȐȧȗȖȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȖȑ șȘȍȌȕȍșțȚȖȟȕȖȑ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȍ ȔȖȎȕȖ țȊȐȌȍȚȤ ȕȈ ( ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1- 6) . ǬȐșȗȍȘșȐȐ ȗȘȍȌșȒȈȏȈȕȕȣȝ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȑ ȉȣȓȐ ȓțȟȠȐȔȐ ȊȉȓȐȏȐ șȚȈȕȞȐȑ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȧ . ǬȐșȗȍȘșȐȐȊȦȋȖȊȖșȚȖȟȕȖȔțȋȓțȒȘȐȋȐȕȋȈȖȉȓȈșȚȐȉȣȓȐȐȕȖȋȌȈȉȖȓȤȠȐȔȐ, ȟ Ț Ȗ ț Ȓ Ȉ ȏ ȣ Ȋ Ȉ ȍ Ț ȕ Ȉ Ȗ Ƞ Ȑ ȉ Ȓ Ȑ Ȍ Ȉ ȕ ȕ ȣ ȝ ȗ Ȗ ȋ Ȗ Ș ȕ Ȗ Ȕ ț Ș Ȉ ȑ Ȗ ȕ ț ș ȉ Ȗ ȓ Ȥ Ƞ Ȑ Ȕ Ȑ ȗȍȘȍȗȈȌȈȔȐ ȊȣșȖȚ . ǺȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ , ȒȈȟȍșȚȊȖ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȗȖȓȍȑ ȔȖȎȕȖ șȟȐȚȈȚȤ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȝȖȘȖȠȐȔ , ȗȖșȓȍ ȚȖȋȖ ȒȈȒ ȉȣȓȐ ȊȏȧȚȣ ȊȖ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȧ, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȍșȗȘȐȋȖȌȕȖșȚȤȦȌȈȕȕȣȝ. Day from 1.1.2001 Correlation --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 19 Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ1-6. 95% ɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɧɨɟɪɚɫɩɪɟɞɟɥɟɧɢɟɢɫɪɟɞɧɹɹɞɢɫɩɟɪɫɢɹɢɧɬɟɪɩɨɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɨɣ ɫɪɟɞɧɟɫɭɬɨɱɧɨɣɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ (° C) 1 .4 . DzȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍșȞȍȕȈȘȐȐ ǷȘȖȋȕȖȏȣȉțȌțȡȍȋȖȒȓȐȔȈȚȈȕȈȖșȕȖȊȍȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧșȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȈȚȔȖșȜȍȘȕȖȑȔȖȌȍȓȐȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȋȖȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ( ǴǫDz). ȅȚȐșȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȍ șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȧȊșȍȖȉȢȍȔȓȦȡȍȑǴǶǾșȔȖȌțȓȧȔȐȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧȔȖȘșȒȐȝȐ șțȝȖȗțȚȕȣȝȉȐȖșȜȍȘȐȔȖȘșȒȖȋȖȓȤȌȈȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧȐȕșȚȘțȔȍȕȚȈȔȐȌȓȧ ȐȏțȟȍȕȐȧȗȘȖȠȓȖȋȖ, ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȋȖȐȉțȌțȡȍȋȖȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ. ǸȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȍȚȈȒȐȝ ǴǶǾȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ, ȒȈȒȗȘȈȊȐȓȖ, 100- 300 ȒȔ (IPCC 2007). ǬȓȧȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȑȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȍǴǶǾ, ȌȖșȐȝȗȖȘȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ, ȌȖȊȖȓȤȕȖȋȘțȉȖȑ, ȈȚȈȒȎȍȕȍȊșȍȗȘȖȞȍșșȣȊȖȉȓȈșȚȐșțȠȈȔȖȘȍȈȚȔȖșȜȍȘȈ ȔȖȋțȚȉȣȚȤȗȖȓȕȖșȚȤȦȗȘȐȕȧȚȣȊȖȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ. ǷȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȈȧ, ȉȖȓȍȍ ȗȖȌȘȖȉȕȈȧȖȞȍȕȒȈ, ȔȖȎȍȚȉȣȚȤȗȖȓțȟȍȕȈșȗȖȔȖȡȤȦȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ( ǸDzǴ) ȐșȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍȔȍȚȖȌȣȘȈȏțȒȘțȗȕȍȕȐȧ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ ǴǶǾ. ǺȍȔȕȍȔȍȕȍȍ, ȌȈȎȍȌȓȧǸDzǴȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȧȚȗȘȖȞȍșșȣ, --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 20 ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍȔȖȋțȚȚȖȓȤȒȖȉȣȚȤȗȘȐȉȓȐȏȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔȐ, ȈȚȈȒȎȍȐșȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȔȍȚȖȌȣȐȔȍȦȚșȊȖȐȖȋȘȈȕȐȟȍȕȐȧ. ǵȍȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȖșȚȤ, șȊȧȏȈȕȕȈȧș ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐșȞȍȕȈȘȐȧȔȐȔȖȎȍȚȊȒȈȒȖȑȚȖșȚȍȗȍȕȐȉȣȚȤȗȘȐȕȧȚȈȊȖ ȊȕȐȔȈȕȐȍ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȧȕȍȚȖȓȤȒȖȖȌȕț, ȈȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖǴǶǾȊȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍ ȔȈȚȍȘȐȈȓȈȊȊȖȌȐȔȖȋȖȌȓȧȥȜȜȍȒȚȈȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ. ǪȥȚȖȔȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ ȔȣȗȘȐȔȍȕȐȓȐ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣȐȏȗȧȚȐȖȚȌȍȓȤȕȣȝǴǶǾ. ǵȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȖșȚȤ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ ǴǶǾ ȉȣȓȐ ȊȏȧȚȣ ș ȐȕȚȍȘȕȍȚȈ Ȑȏ ȈȘȝȐȊȈ ȔțȓȤȚȐ ȔȖȌȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȕȈȉȖȘȈ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ Ȑȏ ǷȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȣ ǪșȍȔȐȘȕȖȋȖ ǰșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ DzȓȐȔȈȚȈ ( ǷǪǰDz) ǷȘȖȍȒȚȈ ǹȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȧ ȊȏȈȐȔȕȖȋȖ ) DzȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ǴȖȌȍȓȍȑ ( ǷǹDzǴ-3). Ǫ ȞȍȓȖȔ ȉȣȓȖ ȏȈȋȘțȎȍȕȖ 19 ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ . ȅȚȐ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȖȚȕȖșȧȚșȧ Ȓ ȕȈȉȖȘț ǴǶǾ , ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȔȣȝ ǴǫȅǰDz ȗȘȐ șȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȐ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȈ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȖȊ, ȖȗțȉȓȐȒȖȊȈȕȕȣȝȊ 4- ȔȌȖȒȓȈȌȍȗȖȖȞȍȕȒȍ. ǩȖȓȍȍȗȖȌȘȖȉȕȈȧȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȧȖ ȔȖȌȍȓȧȝȗȘȐȊȍȌȍȕȈȊǴǫȅǰDz (2007) ǺȈȉȓȐȞȈ 8.1. ǰȏ 19 ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ, ȕȈȒȖȕȍȞ, ȗȧȚȤ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȉȣȓȐ ȊȣȉȘȈȕȣ Ȍȓȧ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȋ ȌȈȕȕȖȔ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ ( Table 1-1). DzȘȐȚȍȘȐȐ ȖȚȉȖȘȈ ȥȚȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȏȈȒȓȦȟȈȓȈșȤ Ȋ ȚȖȔ , ȟȚȖ Ȑȝ ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȖȍ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȍ ȉȣȓȖ 1,9° ȐȓȐ ȊȣȠȍ , Ȉ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȉȣȓȐ ȘȖȎȌȍȕȣ Ȋ ȘȈȏȕȣȝ șȚȘȈȕȈȝ . ȅȚȖ ȋȈȘȈȕȚȐȘțȍȚ , ȟȚȖ ȔȖȌȍȓȐ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȌȍȑșȚȊȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ șȈȔȖșȚȖȧȚȍȓȤȕȣȔȐ ȔȖȌȍȓȧȔȐ , Ȑ ȥȚȖȚ ȗțȚȤ ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȐȧ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȊ, ȗțȚȍȔ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȋ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȍ ȥȚȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȤȕȣȝ ȐȏȖȉȘȈȎȍȕȐȑ, ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȍȚ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȣȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ. Model I nstitute, Country Resolution CGCM3(T63) DzǾǴǨDz DzȈȕȈȌșȒȐȑȞȍȕȚȘ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧȐȈȕȈȓȐȏȈ ȗȖȒȓȐȔȈȚț, DzȈȕȈȌȈ 1.9 Û x 1.9 Û CNRM-CM3 ǵǾǴǰ Météo-France, ǼȘȈȕȞȐȧ 1.9 Û x 1.9 Û ECHAM5/ MPI-OM ǰǴǷǴ ǰȕșȚȐȚțȚǴȈȒșȈǷȓȈȕȒȈȗȖ ǴȍȚȍȖȘȖȓȖȋȐȐ, ǫȍȘȔȈȕȐȧ 1.5 Û x 1.5 Û MIROC3.2(HIRES) ǴǴǰDz ǾȍȕȚȘȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȧ DzȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝșȐșȚȍȔ ǺȖȒȐȑșȒȐȑțȕȐȊȍȘșȐȚȍȚ), ȇȗȖȕȐȧ 1.1 Û x 1.1 Û NCAR-CCSM3 ǹǴDzǹ ǵȈȞȐȖȕȈȓȤȕȣȑȞȍȕȚȘȗȖ ȐșșȓȍȌȖȊȈȕȐȦǨȚȔȖșȜȍȘȣ, ǹȀǨ 1.4 Û x 1.4 Û Ɍɚɛɥɢɰɚ1-1. Ƚɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɟɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɟɦɨɞɟɥɢ, ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɭɟɦɵɟɜɉɪɨɟɤɬɟ. ɉɪɨɞɨɥɠɢɬɟɥɶɧɨɫɬɶ ɮɚɡɵ ɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɹ ɢ ɬɟɦɩɵɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɹ ɛɭɞɭɬ ɡɚɜɢɫɟɬɶ ɨɬ ɤɨɥɢɱɟɫɬɜɚ ɢ ɯɚɪɚɤɬɟɪɚ ɚɧɬɪɨɩɨɝɟɧɧɵɯ ɜɵɛɪɨɫɨɜ . ȼ ɨɰɟɧɤɚɯ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ ɨɛɵɱɧɨ ɩɪɢɤɥɚɞɧɵɯ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɟɜ ɢɡɥɨɠɟɧɵ ɜ ǴǫȅǰDz ɞɨɤɥɚɞɟ (Nakicenovicetal. 2000 ). ȼɵɛɪɨɫɵ CO 2 ɢ ɤɭɦɭɥɹɬɢɜɧɵɟ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɧɵɟ ɋɈ 2ɜ --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 21 ɫɤɨɧɰɟɧɬɪɢɪɨɜɚɧɧɵɟɩɨ A2, A1 ɢ B1 ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɹɦɩɨɤɚɡɚɧɵɧɚ ǼȐȋțȘȍ 1-7. ɉɪɢ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɢB1, ɦɢɪɨɜɚɹ ɷɤɨɧɨɦɢɤɚ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɧɚɩɪɚɜɥɟɧɚ ɧɚ ɭɫɬɨɣɱɢɜɨɟ ɪɚɡɜɢɬɢɟ ɢ ɪɨɫɬ ɧɚɫɟɥɟɧɢɹ ɜ ɦɢɪɟ ɛɭɞɟɬ ɜɵɪɚɜɧɢɜɚɬɶɫɹ . ɉɪɢ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɢ Ⱥ 2 ɩɨɬɪɟɛɢɬɟɥɶɫɤɨɟ ɨɛɳɟɫɬɜɨ, ɜ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɦ ɷɧɟɪɝɢɹ ɜ ɨɫɧɨɜɧɨɦ ɩɪɨɢɡɜɨɞɢɬɫɹ ɡɚ ɫɱɟɬɢɫɤɨɩɚɟɦɨɝɨɬɨɩɥɢɜɚ (ɱɬɨɩɪɢɜɨɞɢɬɤɜɵɫɨɤɢɦɜɵɛɪɨɫɚɦ ) ɢɧɚɫɟɥɟɧɢɟɜ ɦɢɪɟ ɛɭɞɭɬ ɛɵɫɬɪɨ ɪɚɫɬɢ . ɋɰɟɧɚɪɢɣ A1B ɥɟɠɢɬ ɦɟɠɞɭ A2 ɢ B1. Ɉɰɟɧɤɢ ɤɨɧɰɟɧɬɪɚɰɢɢ ɋɈ2 ɜ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɟ ɞɨɫɬɢɝɧɟɬ ɜ 2100 ɝɨɞɭ ɞɢɚɩɚɡɨɧɚ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɟɜ B1 ɢ A2, ɢ ɞɨɫɬɢɝɧɭɬ ɢɡ 550 ɱɚɫɬɟɣ ɧɚ ɦɢɥɥɢɨɧ ɞɨ 850 ɱɚɫɬɟɣ ɧɚ ɦɢɥɥɢɨɧ, ɫɨɨɬɜɟɬɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ. Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ 1-7. a) ɜɵɛɪɨɫɵ CO2ɢɛ) ɫɨɜɨɤɭɩɧɚɹɤɨɧɰɟɧɬɪɚɰɢɹɋɈ2ɜɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɟ SRES ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɢA2, A1B ɢ B1 (Nakicenovicetal. 2000). ǴȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȔȖȍ Ȋ ȥȚȖȔ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ, ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȖ ȕȈ A1B șȞȍȕȈȘȐȐ ȊȣȉȘȖșȖȊ. ǷȖ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȦ ȊȣȉȘȖșȖȊ ǨǪ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȘȖșȚ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȑ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣȕȈ 2-3 ° C ȌȖȒȖȕȞȈȥȚȖȋȖșȚȖȓȍȚȐȧ (Figure 1-8). --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 22 Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ1-8. Ƚɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɟɜɵɛɪɨɫɵ GHG (ɜȽɬCO2-ɷɤɜ) ɜɨɬɫɭɬɫɬɜɢɟɫɬɪɚɬɟɝɢɢɜɨɛɥɚɫɬɢ ɤɥɢɦɚɬɚ ( ɫɥɟɜɚ): ɢɥɥɸɫɬɪɚɰɢɢ ɲɟɫɬɢ SRES ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɟɜ ( ɰɜɟɬɧɵɟ ɥɢɧɢɢ ) ɢ 80+ti ɩɪɨɰɟɧɬɢɥnyɣɞɢɚɩɚɡɨɧɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɟɜɨɩɭɛɥɢɤɨɜɚɧɧɵɣ ɧɚɱɢɧɚɹɫ SRES ( ɢ ɩɨɫɥɟ SRES ) ɫɟɪɨɟ ɩɨɥɟ). ɉɪɚɜɚɹɮɢɝɭɪɚ: ɋɩɥɨɲɧɵɟ ɥɢɧɢɢ ɩɨɤɚɡɵɜɚɸɬ ɧɟɫɤɨɥɶɤɨ ɝɥɨɛɚɥɶɧɵɯ ɫɪɟɞɧɢɯ ɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɣ ɩɪɢɡɟɦɧɨɝɨ ɩɨɬɟɩɥɟɧɢɹ ɞɥɹ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɟɜ A2, A1 ɢ B1. Ɋɨɡɨɜɚɹ ɥɢɧɢɹ ɢɡɨɛɪɚɠɚɟɬ ɚɥɶɬɟɪɧɚɬɢɜɭ , ɜ ɤɨɬɨɪɨɣ ɚɬɦɨɫɮɟɪɧɵɟ ɤɨɧɰɟɧɬɪɚɰɢɢ ɨɫɬɚɸɬɫɹ ɧɟɢɡɦɟɧɧɵɦɢ ɧɚ ɭɪɨɜɧɟ 2000 ɝɨɞɚ. ɉɨɥɨɫɵ ɜ ɩɪɚɜɨɣ ɱɚɫɬɢ ɪɢɫɭɧɤɚ ɩɨɤɚɡɵɜɚɸɬ ɧɚɢɥɭɱɲɭɸɨɰɟɧɤɭ (ɫɩɥɨɲɧɚɹɥɢɧɢɹɜɤɚɠɞɨɣɩɨɥɨɫɟ) ɢɜɟɪɨɹɬɧɵɣɞɢɚɩɚɡɨɧ, ɤɨɬɨɪɵɣ ɨɰɟɧɢɜɚɟɬɫɹ ɩɨ ɲɟɫɬɢ ɫɰɟɧɚɪɢɹɦ SRES ɦɚɪɤɟɪɚ 2090-2099 ɝɝ. ȼɫɟ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ ɨɬɧɨɫɹɬɫɹɤɩɟɪɢɨɞɭ 1980-1999ɝɝ. (ɆȽɗɂɄ2007). 1 .5 . ǸȈȏțȒȘțȗȕȍȕȐȍȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝșȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ ǷȍȘȍȝȖȌ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ Ȑȏ ȒȘțȗȕȖȑ ȘȍȠȍȚȒȐ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȣȝ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ Ȓ 0,2° șȍȚȒȍ ȉȣȓȖ șȌȍȓȈȕȖ ȗțȚȍȔ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȊȣșȖȒȖȋȖ ȘȈȏȘȍȠȍȕȐȧ (0.2° * 0.2° ) ȕȈȉȖȘȈ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȕȈ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȧȝ. ǶȞȍȕȒȈ ȊȍȓȐȟȐȕȣ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȉȣȓȐ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȣ ȕȈ ȔȍȚȖȌȍ , ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖȔȒȈȒ " ȌȍȓȤȚȈȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ" ( Arnell, 1996) , ȋȌȍȊȍȓȐȟȐȕȈȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȍȚșȧ ȒȈȒ ȘȈȏȕȐȞȈ ȔȍȎȌț ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȍȔ ȔȖȌȍȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ Ȑ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȔȌȍȑșȚȊțȦȡȍȋȖ. ȀȈȋȐ, ȗȘȍȌȗȘȐȕȧȚȣȍȊȘȈȏțȒȘțȗȕȍȕȐȧȉȣȓȐ: 1. ǸȈșȟȍȚ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ șȘȍȌȕȍȑ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ Ȑ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ ȖȚȒȓȖȕȍȕȐȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ Ȑ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ȒȈȎȌȖȋȖ ȔȍșȧȞȈ, ȔȍȎȌț ȒȖȕȚȘȖȓȤȕȣȔȐ, ȚȍȒțȡȐȔȐ (1971- 2000) ȐșȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȔȐȊȉțȌțȡȍȍ (2046- 2065); 2. ǸȈșșȟȍȚȕȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȉȣȓȐ ȌȖȉȈȊȓȍȕȣ Ȓ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȔ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧȔ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘ Ȑ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ Ȋ 2001-2010 ȋȋ Ȍȓȧ ȗȘȍȌșȚȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ șȞȍȕȈȘȐȧ 2011- 2050 ȋȋ. ǩȣȓȐ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȣ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȈȉșȖȓȦȚȕȖȑ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ ( Ȋ ȋȘȈȌțșȈȝ ȗȖ ǾȍȓȤșȐȦ), ȈȚȈȒȎȍȖșȈȌȒȐșȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȍșȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍȔ (% ). Ǭȓȧ ȚȖȋȖ , ȟȚȖȉȣ țȟȍșȚȤ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȐ șțȚȖȟȕȣȝ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȊȉțȌțȡȍȔȒȓȐȔȈȚȍ , ȔȣȘȈșșȔȖȚȘȍȓȐȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȍȎȍȔȍșȧȟȕțȦ șȘȍȌȕȦȦ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘț Ȑ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ ȖȚȒȓȖȕȍȕȐȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ. ǹțȚȖȟȕȣȍ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ ( Tske) ȉȣȓȐ ȘȈșșȟȐȚȈȕȣ ȗȖ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȔ (2001- 2010) ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧȔȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ ( Tpre) ȗȖȜȖȘȔțȓȍ, --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 23 , (1) ȊȒȖȚȖȘȖȑƩത- ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȍȔȖȍșȘȍȌȕȍȔȍșȧȟȕȖȍȗȖȊȣȠȍȕȐȍȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣȐ ȘȈșșȟȐȚȣȊȈȍȚșȧ Ȍȓȧ ȒȈȎȌȖȋȖ ȒȈȓȍȕȌȈȘȕȖȋȖ ȔȍșȧȞȈ .ߪ்,௦௞௘Ȑߪ்,௣௥௘ െ șȚȈȕȌȈȘȚȕȣȍ ȖȚȒȓȖȕȍȕȐȧ șȘȍȌȕȍșțȚȖȟȕȖȑ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ ȘȈșșȟȐȚȣȊȈȦȚșȧ ȏȈ ȒȈȎȌȣȑ ȒȈȓȍȕȌȈȘȕȣȑ ȔȍșȧȞ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ , ȗȖȓțȟȍȕȕȣȍ Ȑȏ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧȌȓȧȉȈȏȖȊȖȋȖ (2001-2010) ȗȍȘȐȖȌȈ (pre) ȗȘȍȌ) ȐȕȈ ȉțȌțȡȐȑ ȗȍȘȐȖȌ (ske). ത௣௥௘- șȘȍȌȕȧȧ ȔȍșȧȟȕȈȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȈ Ȋ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȝȌȈȕȕȣȝ. ǹ ț Ț Ȗ ȟ ȕ ȣ ȍ ȏ ȕ Ȉ ȟ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȧ Ȗ ș Ȉ Ȍ Ȓ Ȗ Ȋ ( Pske) ȉȣȓȐ ȘȈșșȟȐȚȈȕȣ ȗȖ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȔȣȔ (2001-2010) șțȚȖȟȕȣȔȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧȔȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ( Ppre) ȗȖȜȖȘȔțȓȍ: , (2) ȊȒȖȚȖȘȖȔƩത - șȘȍȌȕȍȍȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȍȔȖȍȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍȍȎȍȔȍșȧȟȕȣȝȖșȈȌȒȖȊ Ȋ ȗȘȖȞȍȕȚȈȝ (% ), ȘȈșșȟȐȚȣȊȈȍȚșȧȌȓȧ ȒȈȎȌȖȋȖȒȈȓȍȕȌȈȘȕȖȋȖȔȍșȧȞȈ, Ȉ (t) ȠȈȋȗȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ ( ȌȍȕȤ). ǭșȓȐ șȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ Ȕȍșȧȟȕȣȍ ȖșȈȌȒȐ ȉȣȓȐ Ȋ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒoi ȔȖȌȍȓno ȑ șȐȚțȈȞȐȐ ȕȈ țȘȖȊȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ 1 ȔȔȔȍșȧȞ, Ʃത s tre mits ya k nulyu, pos kolku ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍ Ȋ ȗȘȖȞȍȕȚȕȖȔ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȐ ȗȘȐȊȍȓȖ ȉȣ Ȓ ȕȍȘȍȈȓȤȕȣȔ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȔ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ( ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, Ȋ șȓțȟȈȍ țȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȍȎȍȔȍșȧȟȕȣȝ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧ 0,005 ȔȔ Ȑ Ȋ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȉțȌțȡȍ go ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧ Ȕȍșȧȟȕȣȝ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ 0,5 ȔȔ, șȓȍȌȖȊȈȚȍȓȤȕȖ, Ʃതȉȣȓȉȣ 9900% ). ǹȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȔȍȚȖȌȣȘȈȏțȒȘțȗȕȍȕȐȧ ȟȈșȚȖ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȦȚșȧ, ȗȖșȒȖȓȤȒț ȖȕȐ ȚȘȍȉțȦȚ ȔȍȕȤȠȍ ȊȣȟȐșȓȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȝ țșȐȓȐȑ , ȟȍȔ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȘȈȏțȒȘțȗȕȍȕȐȧ, ȖȕȐ ȗȘȍȌȓȈȋȈȦȚ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤȌȓȧȚȍșȚȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧșȞȍȕȈȘȐȍȊ ȕȈ ȔȕȖȋȐȍ ȌȍșȧȚȐȓȍȚȐȧ ȐȓȐ ȌȈȎȍ ȊȍȒȈ Ȑ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȚ Ȋ șȍȉȧ ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖșȚȤ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȚȤ « ȈȕșȈȔȉȓȤ» ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ǴǶǾ . Ǭȓȧ șȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȖȋȖ ȘȈȏțȒȘțȗȕȍȕȐȧ ȌȓȐȕȕȣȝ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȣȝ ȘȧȌȖȊ ȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȣȝ ȕȈȉȓȦȌȍȕȐȑ , ȔȖȎȕȖ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȖșȊȍȌȖȔȐȚȤșȧ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȓȐ ȒȓȐȔȈȚ șȍȋȖȌȕȧȠȕHȋȖ Ȍȕȧ , ȐȏȖȉȘȈȏȐȚȤ ȉțȌțȡȐȍ țșȓȖȊȐȧ . ǬȐȕȈȔȐȟȍșȒȖȍ ȘȈȏțȒȘțȗȕȍȕȐȍ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȜȐȏȐȟȍșȒȐ ȖȉȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȣȔ ȗȖȌȝȖȌȖȔ Ȑ , ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȊȒȓȦȟȈȍȚ Ȋ șȍȉȧ ȔȕȖȎȍșȚȊȖ ȖȉȘȈȚȕȣȝ șȊȧȏȍȑ Ȋ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȖȑ șȐșȚȍȔȍ. ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȥȚȖȚ ȔȍȚȖȌ șȐȓȤȕȖ ȏȈȊȐșȐȚ ȖȚ ȋȘȈȕȐȟȕȣȝ țșȓȖȊȐȑ , ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȧȍȔȣȝ ǴǶǾ , Ȑ Ȗȕ ȟțȊșȚȊȐȚȍȓȍȕ Ȓ ȗȈȘȈȔȍȚȘȐȏȈȞȐȐ, ȐșȗȖȓȤȏțȍȔȖȑ Ȋ ǸDzDz Ȍȓȧ ȘȈȏțȒȘțȗȕȍȕȐȧ. ǶȕȚȈȒȎȍȚȘȍȉțȍȚȔȕȖȋȖȊȣȟȐșȓȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȝȘȍșțȘșȖȊȐțȎȍȊȥȚȖȔ șȔȣșȓȍȕȍ ȔȖȎȍȚȉȣȚȤȗȘȐȔȍȕȍȕȊȌȈȕȕȖȔȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ. 1 .6 . ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣȘȈȉȖȚȣȗȖȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ǹȖȋȓȈșȕȖ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȈȔ șȘȍȌȕȍȋȖȌȖȊȈȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȈ , ȗȖ ȗȘȖȋȕȖȏȈȔ , ȊȖȏȘȈșȚȍȚ ȗȘȐȔȍȘȕȖ ȕȈ ȚȘȐ ȋȘȈȌțșȈ Ȑ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȋȖȌȖȊȖȋȖ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȈ Ȗ șȈ Ȍ Ȓ Ȗ Ȋ Ȋ Ț ȍ ȟ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȍ ȉ ȓ Ȑ Ȏ Ȉ ȑ Ƞ Ȑ ȝ 40 ȓ ȍ Ț Ȗ ȟ ȍ ȕ Ȥ Ȕ Ȉ ȓ ȣ ( Ǽ Ȑ ȋ ț Ș Ȉ 1-9). Dz Ȗ ȋ Ȍ Ȉ Ȕ ȣ șȔȖȚȘȐȔ ȕ ȈșȍȏȖȕȕȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȈȚȔȖșȜȍȘȕȣȝ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ , țȎȍ șțȝȈȧ ȦȋȖ - ȏȈȗȈȌȕȈȧ ȟȈșȚȤ șȚȈȕȖȊȧȚșȧ ȍȡȍ șțȠȍ , Ȑ ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖ Ȋ ȓȍȚȕȐȑ ȗȍȘȐȖȌ . Ǫ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȔȍșȚȈȝ Ȋ ȋȖȘȈȝ ȖșȈȌȒȐ ȔȖȋțȚ țȊȍȓȐȟȐȚȤșȧ . ǶȌȕȈȒȖ ȍșȚȤ ȖȚȒȓȖȕȍȕȐȧȖȚȔȖȌȍȓȐȒȔȖȌȍȓȐ ( ǼȐȋțȘȣ 1-9BandC). ǷȖȊșȦȌțȗȖȌȕȐȔȍȚșȧ șȘȍȌȕȧȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȈ Ȋ ȋȖȌț. ǹȐȓȤȕȍȑȠȍȍ ȗȖȚȍȗȓȍȕȐȍ ȧȊȐȚșȧ Ȋ ȋȖȘȈȝ Ȑ Ȋ șȍȊȍȘȕȣȝȘȈȑȖȕȈȝȖȉȓȈșȚȐ. --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 24 DzȖȋȌȈȗȖȒȈȏȈȚȍȓȤȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ, ȌȈȕȕȣȑȕȈǼȐȋțȘȍ 1-1, ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧȒȈȟȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖ șȘȈȊȕȐȔȣȔșȗȖȒȈȏȈȚȍȓȍȔȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ, ȗȘȐȊȍȌȍȕȕȣȝȕȈǼȐȋțȘȍ 1- 9 , ȔȖȎȕȖ ȊȐȌȍȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȖȉȡȐȍȟȍȘȚȣȚȍȎȍșȈȔȣȍ, Țȍ. țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȍȖșȈȌȒȖȊȊȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȓȍȚȕȍȋȖ șȍȏȖȕȈ Ȋ ȋȖȘȈȝ șȖȊȗȈȌȈȦȚ Ȋ ȚȖ Ȏȍ ȊȘȍȔȧ ș ȗȖȊȣȠȍȕȐȍȔ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ. Ǫ ȧȕȊȈȘȍ ȖșȈȌȒȐ ȉțȌțȚ țȊȍȓȐȟȐȊȈȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȕșȚȊȍ șȚȘȈȕ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȏȈȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȍȔșȈȔȣȝȦȎȕȣȝȘȈȑȖȕȖȊ . ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ, ȗȘȐȊȍȌȍȕȕȣȍ ȕȈ Figure 1-9 ȕȍșțȚȉȖȓȍȍȗȖȌȘȖȉȕțȦȐȕȜȖȘȔȈȞȐȦ. DzȚȖȔțȎȍȕȈȌȖȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȗ Ȗ Ȕ ȕ Ȑ Ț Ȥ, ȟ Ț Ȗ ȝ Ȗ Ț ȧ Ȕ Ȗ Ȍ ȍ ȓ Ȑ ț Ȓ Ȉ ȏ ȣ Ȋ Ȉ Ȧ Ț ȕ Ȉ Ȑ ȏ Ȕ ȍ ȕ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȧ Ȋ Ȗ ș Ȉ Ȍ Ȓ Ȉ ȝ Ȍ ȓ ȧ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȝȏȈșțȠȓȐȊȣȝȘȍȋȐȖȕȖȊȌȈȎȍȉȖȓȤȠȍ, ȟȍȔ ȕȈ 20% , ȥȚȖȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ, ȟȚȖ Ȋ ȘȍȈȓȤȕȖșȚȐ ȗȘȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐ ȕȍ ȐȏȔȍȘȐȔȣȝ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ, ȒȈȒ ȒȖȓȐȟȍșȚȊȖ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊȊȥȚȐȝȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȝȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧȔȐȏȍȘȕȣȔȐ. ǷȘȖȋȕȖȏȐȘțȍȔȖȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ , ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȟȚȖ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȕȣȍ ȐȏȖȚȍȘȔȣȉțȌțȚȌȊȐȋ ȈȚȤșȧȕȈșȍȊȍȘȐȊȊȍȘȝȗȖșȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȦșȗȘȖȠ ȓȣȔȐȓȐ ȚȍȒțȡȐȔȒȓȐȔȈȚȖȔ ( ǼȐȋțȘȈ 1-10). ǵȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȊȧȕȊȈȘȍȘȈșȟȍȚȕȈȧȐȏȖȚȍȘȔȈ - 1 0 C °, ȗ Ȗ ȗ Ș Ȗ ȋ ȕ Ȗ ȏ Ȉ Ȕ, ȗ ȍ Ș ȍ Ȕ ȍ ș Ț Ȑ Ț ș ȧ ȕ Ȉ 1 5 0 - 2 0 0 Ȓ Ȕ ȕ Ȉ ș ȍ Ȋ ȍ Ș Ȋ Ț ȍ ȟ ȍ ȕ Ȑ ȍ ȉȓȐȎȈȑȠȐȝ 40 ȓȍȚ. ǷȖȊȣȠȍȕȐȍ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ ȖȏȕȈȟȈȍȚ , ȟȚȖ ȐȏȖȚȍȘȔȈ 0° ǹȌȊȐȎȍȚșȧ ȊȊȍȘȝ Ȋ ȋȖȘȕȣȍ ȘȈȑȖȕȣ, Ȑ ȥȚȖ ȗȘȐȊȍȌȍȚ Ȓ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȉȣșȚȘȖȔț ȚȈȧȕȐȦȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ. --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 25 Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ1-9. ɋɪɟɞɧɢɟ ɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹ ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪɵ (° ɋ) ɢ ɜɵɩɚɞɟɧɢɹ ɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ (%) ɝɨɞɢɱɧɵɯ (A), ɹɧɜɚɪɫɤɢɯ (B) ɢ ɢɸɥɶɫɤɢɯ (C) ɦɟɠɞɭ ɨɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɩɭɬɟɦ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ ( ɩɟɪɢɨɞ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ: 1971-2000) ɢɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹɛɭɞɭɳɟɝɨ (ɩɹɬɶɩɟɪɢɨɞɨɜɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɹ: 2045 - 2065). Ɋɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɵɨɫɧɨɜɚɧɧɵɟɧɚɩɪɨɜɟɞɟɧɧɵɯɨɩɵɬɚɯɫɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɨɜɚɧɢɟɦɩɹɬɢɦɨɞɟɥɟɣɞɚɧɵ ɜɌɚɛɥɢɰɟ 1. --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 26 Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ1-10. ɋɪɟɞɧɢɟɡɧɚɱɟɧɢɹɜ 2041-2050 ɟɠɟɝɨɞɧɵɯ (A), ɹɧɜɚɪɫɤɢɯ (B) ɢɢɸɥɶɫɤɢɯ (C) ɬɟɦɩɟɪɚɬɭɪ (° ɋ) ɢɨɫɚɞɤɨɜ (ɦɦ). Ɂɧɚɱɟɧɢɹɹɜɥɹɸɬɫɹɫɪɟɞɧɢɦɢɢɡɩɹɬɢɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯ ɦɨɞɟɥɟɣ (ɬɚɛɥ. 1), ɢɫɩɨɥɶɡɭɟɦɵɯɜɩɪɨɟɤɬɟ. A) B) C ) --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 27 1 .7 . ǸȍȏȦȔȍȘȈȉȖȚȗȖȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ DzȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȌȖȓȎȕȣ ȗȘȐȔȍȕȧȚȤșȧ Ȋ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȐ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȚ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ șȘȍȌȕȐȍ , ȔȈȒșȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȍ Ȑ ȔȐȕȐȔȈȓȤȕȣȍ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ Ȑ ȍȎȍȌȕȍȊȕȣȍ ȌȈȕȕȣȍ Ȗȉ ȖșȈȌȒȈȝ ȗȖ șȍȚȒȍ 0,2° * 0,2° , ȗȖȒȘȣȊȈȦȡȍȑ șȚȘȈȕȣ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ǨȏȐȐ . ǩȈȏȖȊȣȑ țȘȖȊȍȕȤ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ 2001- 2010 ȋȖȌȖȊ Ȑ ȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȕȣȍ ȏȕȈȟȍȕȐȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȣ ȉȈȏȐȘțȍȚșȧ ȕȈ ȖșȕȖȊȍ ȐȏȔȍȘȍȕȕȣȝ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ . ǰșȝȖȌȕȣȑ țȘȖȊȍȕȤ ȖșȈȌȒȖȊ ȖșȕȖȊȈȕȕȈȚȈȒȕȈȏȣȊȈȍȔȣȝȌȈȕȕȣȝ PERSI ANN, ȏȈȐșȒȓȦȟȍȕȐȍȔ 2006-2007 ȋȖȌȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍȖșȕȖȊȈȕȣȕȈ TRMM ȌȈȕȕȣȝ. ǷȘȖȋȕȖȏȣȉțȌțȡȍȋȖȒȓȐȔȈȚȈȕȈ ȗȍȘȐȖȌ 2011- 2050 ȉȣȓȐ ȖȉȘȈȉȖȚȈȕȣ ș ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ ȗȧȚȐ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȔȖȌȍȓȍȑ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ. ǬȈȕȕȣȍ ȉȣȓȐ ȘȈȏțȒȘțȗȕȍȕȣ ȌȖ ȗȓȖȚȕȖȑ șȍȚȒȐ ș ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȍȔ șȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȔȍȚȖȌȖȊ țȔȍȕȤȠȍȕȐȧ ȔȈșȠȚȈȉȈ . ǬȍȧȚȍȓȤȕȖșȚȤ ȗȖ ȕȈȘȈȡȐȊȈȕȐȦ ȗȖȚȍȕȞȐȈȓȈ ȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȚ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌșȚȊȖ țȟȍȉȕȣȝ ȔȈȚȍȘȐȈȓȖȊ Ȑ ȗȘȖȊȍȌȍȕȐȍ șȍȔȐȕȈȘȖȊ Ȑ ȗȘȍȏȍȕȚȈȞȐȑ ȗȖ ȚȈȒȐȔ ȊȖȗȘȖșȈȔ, ȒȈȒ: șȉȖȘ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ ȗȖ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȔț ȒȓȐȔȈȚț , ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ, ȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕșȚȊȍȕȕȈȧȑȐȕȚȍȘȗȖȓȧȞȐȧ, șȚȈȚȐșȚȐȟȍșȒȖȍȘȈȏțȒȘțȗȕȍȕȐȍ Ȑ R ȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȍ. ǻȟȍȉȕȣȍ ȔȈȚȍȘȐȈȓȣ ȉȣȓȐ ȌȖșȚȈȊȓȍȕȣ Ȍȓȧ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȐȧșȚȈȎȍȘȈȔȐǷȘȖȍȒȚȈ. ǺȍȎȍȗȘȍȌȔȍȚȣȉȣȓȐȊȒȓȦȟȍȕȣȚȈȒȎȍ ȊȗȘȖȋȘȈȔȔțȏȈȒȓȦȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȖȋȖșȍȔȐȕȈȘȈ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȈ. ǸȈȉȖȚȈ ȗȖ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ȗȘȖȐȏȊȖȌȐȓȈșȤ ȗțȚȍȔ ȕȈȉȖȘȈ ȌȈȕȕȣȝ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȉȣȓȐ ȐșȗȖȓȤȏȖȊȈȕȣ ȏȈȚȍȔ Ȋ ȋȐȌȘȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȖȔ Ȕ Ȗ Ȍ ȍ ȓ Ȑ Ș Ȗ Ȋ Ȉ ȕ Ȑ Ȑ. Ǫ ȣȊ Ȗ Ȍ ȣ Ȋ ȗ Ș Ȗ ȍ Ȓ Ț ȍ ȉ ȣȓ Ȑ ȗ Ș ȍ Ȍ șȚ Ȉ Ȋ ȓ ȍ ȕ ȣȌ ȓ ȧ ȗ Ș Ȗ Ƞ ȓ Ȗ ȋ Ȗ Ȑ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȋȖȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ, ȐȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍȉțȌțȚȐȔȍȚȤȔȍșȚȖȊȉțȌțȡȍȔ . ǺȈȒȐȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȘȈȏȕȣȝ ȟȈșȚȧȝ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȈ ǨȘȈȓȤșȒȖȋȖ ȔȖȘȧ Ȑ ȉțȌțȡȐȝ ȋȖȘȕȣȝ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ ȖȟȍȕȤ ȘȈȏȕȖȖȉȘȈȏȕȣ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȒȓȦȟȍȊȣȔ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȖȔ ( Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ 1-11 ). ǩțȌțȡȐȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȍ Ȑ ȖșȈȌȒȈȝ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȊȈȎȕȣȔȐ ȜȈȒȚȖȘȈȔȐ , ȊȖȏȌȍȑșȚȊȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȑ ȊȔȍșȚȍ ș ȘȍȟȕȣȔȐ ȗȖȚȖȒȈȔȐ , ȕȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ȕȈ șȖȞȐȈȓȤȕȖȥȒȖȕȖȔȐȟȍșȒȐȍ Ȑ ȥȒȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐȍȗȘȖȉȓȍȔȣ. --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 28 Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ1-11. Ƚɥɚɜɧɟɣɲɢɣ ɜɨɩɪɨɫ ɩɪɢ ɦɨɞɟɥɢɪɨɜɚɧɢɢ ɪɚɛɨɬɵ, ɷɬɨ ɩɪɟɞɫɤɚɡɚɬɶ ɫɭɞɶɛɭ ɝɨɪɧɵɯ ɥɟɞɧɢɤɨɜ ɜ ɜɟɪɯɨɜɶɹɯ ɜɨɞɨɫɛɨɪɧɵɯ ɛɚɫɫɟɣɧɨɜ . Ɂɚ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɧɢɟ ɫɬɨɥɟɬɢɹɜ ɐɟɧɬɪɚɥɶɧɨɣ Ⱥɡɢɢ ɹɡɵɤɢ ɩɨɱɬɢ ɜɫɟɯ ɞɨɥɢɧɧɵɯ ɥɟɞɧɢɤɨɜ ɨɬɫɬɭɩɢɥɢ (NE Ɍɚɞɠɢɤɢɫɬɚɧ, Ʉɭɪɭɦɞɵɪɟɝɢɨɧ, GoogleEarth). 1 .8 . ǹȣȓȒȐ Haylock, M., Hofstra, N, Klein Tank,A., Klok,E., J ones, P and New, M., 2008. A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface tem perature and precipitation for 1950–2006. Journal of Geophys ical Research, Vol. 113, D20119, doi: 10.1029/ 2008JD010201 IPCC, 2007. Clim ate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, I I and I I I to the Fourth Assessm ent Repor t of the Intergovernm ental Panel on Clim ate Change [ Core Wri ting Team , Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A. (eds.)] . IPCC, Geneva, Switze rland, 104 pp. Kaushik, G., Wang, N-Y., Ferraro, R., Liu, C., 2010 .Status of the TRMM 2A12 Land Precipitation Algorithm Journal of Atm ospheric and Oceanic Technology Volum e 27, I ssue 8 (August 2010) pp. 134 3-1354 doi: 10.1175/ 2010JTECHA1454.1 Abstract Nakicenovic, N. & Swart, R. (eds.). 2000. Special R eport on Em ission Scenarios. A special report of Working group III of the Intergovernm ental Panel on Clim ate Change. Cam bridge University Press , Cam bridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 599 pp Pebesm a, E.J., 2004. Multivariable geostatistics in S: the gstat package.Com puters & Geosciences, 30: 683-691 --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 29 2 . ǫǶǸǵǨȇǹǸǭǬǨ 2 .1 . ǫȍȖȋȘȈȜȐȧ ǫȖȘȣ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ǨȏȐȐ ( ǺȧȕȤȀȈȕȤ Ȑ ǷȈȔȐȘ ) ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȋȍȖȓȖȋȐȟȍșȒȐ ȌȖȊȖȓȤȕȖ ȔȖȓȖȌȣȔȐ (540 - 250 Ȕȓȕ. ȓȍȚ). ǶȕȐ ȖȟȍȕȤ ȊȣșȖȒȐȍ , ȖșȚȘȖȒȖȕȍȟȕȣȍ, Ȑ ȒȘțȚȖșȒȓȖȕȕȣȍ . ǹȈȔȣȍ ȊȣșȖȒȐȍ ȗȐȒȐ Ȋ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȍ ǨȘȈȓȤșȒȖȋȖȔȖȘȧȥȚȖǺȧȕȤȀȈȕșȒȐȍȋȖȘȣ ȟȈșȚȖ 4000 - 5000 Ȕ Ȑș 7000 Ȕ ȗ Ȑ Ȓ Ȉ Ȕ Ȑ. ǫ Ȗ Ș ȣ Ƿ Ȉ Ȕ Ȑ Ș Ȉ Ȋ ȉ Ȉ ș ș ȍ ȑ ȕ ȍ Ǩ Ș Ȉ ȓ Ȥ ș Ȓ Ȗ ȋ Ȗ Ȕ Ȗ Ș ȧ Ȋ Ȓ ȓ Ȧ ȟ Ȉ Ȧ Ț Ȋ ș ȍ ȉ ȧ ȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȐȒȖȊ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȧȊȓȧȦȚșȧ ȉȖȓȍȍ 7000 Ȕ. ǹȈȔȣȑ ȊȣșȖȒȐȑ ȗȐȒ - ȥȚȖǰșȔȈȐȓȈǹȖȔȖȕȐ ( ȉȣȊȠȐȑȗȐȒDzȖȔȔțȕȐȏȔȈ) ȊȣșȖȚȖȑ 7495 Ȕ. dzȍȌȕȐȒȐȊȉȈșșȍȑȕȍ ǨȘȈȓȤșȒȖȋȖ ȔȖȘȧ ȏȈȕȐȔȈȦȚ 18128 ȒȔ2, , ȐȐȋȘȈȦ ȚȖȕȐ Ȋ Ȉ Ȏ ȕ ț Ȧ Ș Ȗ ȓ Ȥ Ȋ ȋ Ȑ Ȍ Ș Ȗ ȓ Ȗ ȋ Ȑ Ȑ, Ț Ȉ Ȓ Ȓ Ȉ Ȓ Ȗ ȕ Ȑ ȗ Ȗ ș Ț Ȉ Ȋ ȓ ȧ Ȧ Ț Ț Ȉ ȓ ț Ȧ Ȋ Ȗ Ȍ ț Ȑ Ȋ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍȏȈșțȠȓȐȊȣȝȓȍȚȕȐȝȔȍșȧȞȍȊ. ǫȖȘȕȣȍȓȍȌȕȐȒȐȊȒȓȦȟȈȦȚȊșȍȉȧ: 1) ǵȍȉȖȓȤȠȐȍ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊȣȍ ȞȐȘȒȐ, ȗȖȒȖȧȡȐȍșȧ ȕȈ ȌȖȊȖȓȤȕȖ ȒȘțȚȣȝ ȋȖȘȕȣȝ șȒȓȖȕȈȝ; 2) ǩȖȓȤȠȐȍ ȓȍȌȧȕȣȍ ȠȈȗȒȐ ȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȍȚ ȋȖȘȕȣȍ ȊȍȘȠȐȕȣ , șȊȧȏȈȕȕȣȍ ș ȌȖȓȐȕȕȣȔȐ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈȔȐ , țȏȒȐȍ Ȑ ȌȓȐȕȕȣȍ ȧȏȣȒȐ ȓȤȌȈ , șȚȍȒȈȦȡȐȍȊǷȖȉȘȈȏȕȣȍȌȖȓȐȕȣ. ǷȘȖȞȍȕȚȕȖȍ șȖȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȍ ȗȓȖȡȈȌȐ ȖȓȍȌȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȌȊțȝ ȊȖȌȖșȉȖȘȕȣȝ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȖȊșțȡȍșȚȊȍȕȕȖȖȚȓȐȟȈȍȚșȧ. dzȍȌȕȐȒȐǨȔțǬȈȘȤȐȖȝȊȈȚȣȊȈȍȚ 15500 ȒȔ2 (2% ȖȚȗȓȖȡȈȌȐ) Ȑ 1,800 ȒȔ2 - ǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȐ (0,15% ȖȚȗȓȖȡȈȌȐ). ǹȈȔȣȍ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȍȓȍȌȕȐȒȐȕȈȝȖȌȧȚșȧȊȋȖȘȈȝǷȈȔȐȘȈȊǺȈȌȎȐȒȐșȚȈȕȍ. dzȍȌȕȐȒȐ ȚȘȈȕșȗȖȘȚȐȘțȦȚ ȌȍȉȘȐșȕȣȍ ȖȚȓȖȎȍȕȐȧ , ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍ ȖȉȘȈȏțȦȚ ȔȖȘȍȕȣ Ȋ ȉȖȒȖȊȖȑ ȟȈșȚȐ Ȑ ȗȖ ȒȘȈȧȔ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈ. ǩȖȒȖȊȣȍ ȔȖȘȍȕȣ ȏȈȕȐȔȈȦȚ ȒȘȈȧȓȍȌȕȐȒȈ. ǺȍȘȔȐȕȈȓȐȓȐȊȒȖȕȍȞȔȖȘȍȕȣȜȖȘȔȐȘțȦȚșȧȊȗȖȌȖȠȊȍȐȓȐ ȏȈȊȍȘȠȈȦȡȍȑ ȟȈșȚȐ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈ. ǹȘȍȌȐȕȕȣȍ ȔȖȘȍȕȣ ȖȉȘȈȏțȦȚșȧ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȌȊȈ ȘȈȏȕȣȝȗȖȚȖȒȈȓȤȌȈ, ȚȍȒțȚȊȖȌȕȖȔȕȈȗȘȈȊȓȍȕȐȐ , ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȧȦȚșȧșȉȖȒȖȊȖȑ ȔȖȘȍȕȖȑ Ȑ ȒȈȎȌȈȧ ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȈȧ Ȋ șȖȊȖȒțȗȕȖșȚȐ ȖȉȘȈȏțȦȚ ȔȖȘȍȕȕȖȍ ȗȖȓȍ Ȋ șȍȘȍȌȐȕȍ ȖȉȢȍȌȐȕȍȕȕȣȝ ȗȖȚȖȒȖȊ. ǪȣȠȍ țȗȖȔȧȕțȚȣȑ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊȣȑ ȔțșȖȘ Ȕ Ȗ Ȏ ȍ Ț ȉ ȣ Ț Ȥ Ȗ ȟ ȍ ȕ Ȥ Ț Ȗ ȓ ș Ț ȣ Ȕ ȉ ȓ Ȑ ȏ Ȓ Ȗ Ȓ Ȓ Ș Ȉ Ȧ ȓ ȍ Ȍ ȕ Ȑ Ȓ Ȉ, Ȑ ȥ Ț Ȗ ȗ Ș Ȑ Ȋ ȍ Ȍ ȍ Ț Ȓ ȏȈȔȍȌȓȍȕȐȦ ȚȈȧȕȐȧ ȓȤȌȈ . ǷȖșȒȖȓȤȒț ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊȣȑ ȧȏȣȒ ȗȖȒȘȣȊȈȍȚșȧ ȔțșȖȘȖȔ, ȚȘțȌȕȖȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȐȚȤ, ȋȌȍȕȈȝȖȌȐȚșȧȍȋȖȜȈȒȚȐȟȍșȒȐȑȒȘȈȑ. 2 .2 . ǹȊȐȌȍȚȍȓȤșȚȊȖȚȈȧȕȐȧȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ ǽȖȘȖȠȖ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȣȑ ȜȈȒȚ , ȟȚȖ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȐ ȌȖșȚȐȋȓȐ șȊȖȍȋȖ ȔȈȒșȐȔțȔȈ Ȋ ȋȖȓȖȞȍȕȍ 1850- ȝ ȋȖȌȖȊ Kutuzov&Shahgedanova 2009). Ǫ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȕșȚȊȍ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ ȒȖȕȍȟȕțȦ ȔȖȘȍȕț, ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȡțȦ ȔȈȒșȐȔȈȓȤȕțȦ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȕȖșȚȤ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈ, ȔȖȎȕȖ ȧșȕȖ țȊȐȌȍȚȤ Ȋ ȌȖȓȐȕȈȝ. dzȍȌȕȐȒȐ ȖȚȕȖșȐȚȍȓȤȕȖ ȉȣșȚȘȖ ȘȍȈȋȐȘțȦȚ ȕȈ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ( ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȈ, ȖșȈȌȒȐ, ȊȓȈȎȕȖșȚȤ Ȑ ȖȉȓȈȟȕȖșȚȤ). ǭșȓȐ șȕȍȋȖȗȈȌ ( ȕȈȒȖȗȓȍȕȐȧ), ȗȖȌȌȍȘȎȐȊȈȦȡȐȑ șȖȝȘȈȕȍȕȐȍ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ șȖȒȘȈȡȈȍȚșȧ, ȐȓȐ ȍșȓȐ ȍșȚȤ țȊȍȓȐȟȍȕȐȍ ȗȖȚȍȘȐ ȓȤȌȈ ( ȈȉȓȧȞȐȧ), ȥȚȐ ȘȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣ ȗȘȐȊȍȌțȚ Ȓ șȗȈȌț ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈ ȐȓȐ ȖȉȡȍȔț ȐșȚȖȕȟȍȕȐȦ ȔȈșșȣ ȓȤȌȈ ( ȐȓȐȚȖȐȌȘțȋȖȍ), ȒȈȒȗȘȈȊȐȓȖ, ȊȚȍȟȍȕȐȍȕȍșȒȖȓȤȒȐȝȓȍȚ . Ǫșȍ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȐ ȐȔȍȦȚ șȊȖȦ șȖȉșȚȊȍȕȕțȦ ȌȐȕȈȔȐȒț, Ȑ ȥȚȖ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȉȡȐȔ, ȟȚȖ ȐȕȖȋȌȈ Ȑȝ ȒȘȈȍȊȣȍ ȟȈșȚȐ ȖȚșȚțȗȈȓȐ, Ȉ Ȋ ȌȘțȋȐȍ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȈ ȕȈșȚțȗȈȓȐ. ǵȍșȒȖȓȤȒȖ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ ȐȔȍȓȐ ȗȍȘȐȖȌȣ ȖȟȍȕȤ ȉȣșȚȘȖȋȖ ȗȘȖȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȧ , ȕȈȏȣȊȈȍȔȖȋȖ șȒȈȟȒȖȔ. ȅȚȐȓȍȌȕȐȒȐȌȍȔȖȕșȚȘȐȘțȦȚȕȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȖȍȌȊȐȎȍȕȐȍ, ȗ Ȗ Ȓ Ȉ Ȋ Ȍ Ș ț ȋ Ȗ ȕ Ȑ ȕ ȍ ȕ Ȉ ȟ Ȑ ȕ Ȉ Ȧ Ț ț ș Ȓ Ȗ Ș ȧ Ț Ȥ, Ȉ ȏ Ȉ Ț ȍ Ȕ Ȋ Ȗ ȏ Ȋ Ș Ȉ ȡ Ȉ Ȧ Ț ș ȧ Ȓ ș Ȋ Ȗ ȍ Ȕ ț --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 30 ȗȘȍȎȕȍȔț șȖșȚȖȧȕȐȦ . ǪȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȥȚȐȝ șȒȈȟȒȖȊ , ȓȍȌȕȐȒ ȔȖȎȍȚ ȌȖșȚȐȋȈȚȤ șȒȖȘȖșȚȐ ȋȖȘȈȏȌȖ ȉȖȓȤȠȍȑ , ȟȍȔ ȕȖȘȔȈȓȤȕȈȧ șȒȖȘȖșȚȤ , Ȉ ȒȘȈȧ ȔȖȋțȚ ȗȘȖȌȊȐȋȈȚȤșȧ ȌȈȓȤȠȍ . ǵȈȗȘȐȔȍȘ, ǴȍȌȊȍȎȐȑ ȓȍȌȕȐȒ Ȋ ǺȈȌȎȐȒȐșȚȈȕȍ ȗȍȘȐȖȌȐȟȍșȒȐȗȍȘȍȔȍȡȈȍȚșȧȊȕȐȏȒȈȎȌȣȍ 12-15 ȓȍȚ. DzȈȒ ȚȖȓȤȒȖ ȗȖȊȣȠȈȍȚșȧ ȚȍȔȗȍȘȈȚțȘȈ, ȗȖȟȚȐ ȊșȦȌț ȕȈȉȓȦȌȈȍȚșȧ ȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȍ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ Ȋ ȋȖȘȕȣȝ ȌȖȓȐȕȈȝ , ȟȚȖ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȌȕȐȔ Ȑȏ șȈȔȣȝ ȏȈȔȍȚȕȣȝ șȐȔȊȖȓȖȊ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȚȍȗȓȍȕȐȧ . ǶȉȡȈȧ ȒȈȘȚȐȕȈ ȘȈșȗȘȖșȚȘȈȕȍȕȕȖȑ ȘȍȞȍșșȐȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȖȌȕȖȏȕȈȟȕȖȑ Ȑ ȖȚȘȈȎȈȍȚ ȝȖȘȖȠȖ ȐȏȊȍșȚȕȖȍ șȊȐȌȍȚȍȓȤșȚȊȖ ȋȓȖȉȈȓȤȕȖȋȖ ȗȖȚȍȗȓȍȕȐȧ . Im m erzeel Ȑ șȖȈȊȚ . (2010) ȗȘȍȌȗȖȓȈȋȈȦȚ, ȟȚȖ șȐȚțȈȞȐȧ Ȋ ǨȏȐȐ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧ ȕȈȔȕȖȋȖ șȓȖȎȕȍȍ. ǽ Ȗ Ț ȧ, Ȓ Ȉ Ȓ ȗ Ș ȍ Ȍ ș Ț Ȉ Ȋ ȓ ȧ ȍ Ț ș ȧ Ȗ ȉ ȡ Ȉ ȧ ȗ Ȗ Ț ȍ Ș ȧ ȓ Ȥ Ȍ Ȉ Ȋ ȥ Ț Ȗ Ȕ Ș ȍ ȋ Ȑ Ȗ ȕ ȍ, Ȉ Ȋ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈȝ ȕȈ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȝ ȊȣșȖȚȈȝ , ȚȈȒȐȝ ȒȈȒ DzȈȘȈȒȖȘțȔ ȗȖȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚ țȊȍȓȐȟȍȕȐȍ , Ȑ ȕȍȧșȕȖșȚȤ Ȋ ȖȚȕȖȠȍȕȐȐ ȚȍȔȗȖȊ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȧȊȓȧȍȚșȧȏȕȈȟȐȚȍȓȤȕȣȔȐ dzȍȌȕȐȒǼȍȌȟȍȕȒȖȉȖȓȤȠȖȑȓȍȌȕȐȒȕȈǷȈȔȐȘȍȊȞȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȔǺȈȌȎȐȒȐșȚȈȕȍ ȕȈȊȣșȖȚȍ 2900 - 6300 Ȕ. dzȍȌȕȐȒȌȓȐȕȕȣȑȐțȏȒȐȑ, ȊȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȍȊȘȍȔȧ 77 ȒȔ Ȋ ȌȓȐȕț Ȑ ȗȓȖȡȈȌȤȦ ȉȖȓȍȍ 649 ȒȔ2. ȅȚȖ șȈȔȣȑ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȕȣȑȓȍȌȕȐȒ Ȋ ȔȐȘȍ ȏȈ ȗȘȍȌȍȓȈȔȐ ȗȖȓȧȘȕȣȝ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȖȊ. ǴȈȒșȐȔȈȓȤȕȈȧ ȔȖȡȕȖșȚȤ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈ șȖșȚȈȊȓȧȍȚ 1000 ȔȍȚȘȖȊ, Ȉ ȖȉȢȍȔ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈ ǼȍȌȟȍȕȒȖ Ȑ ȍȋȖ ȖȚȊȍȚȊȓȍȕȐȑ ȖȞȍȕȐȊȈȍȚșȧȊ 144 ȒȔ3 (Aizen&Aizen 2010) . DzȘȖȔȒȈȥȚȖȋȖȓȍȌȕȐȒȈȖȚșȚțȗȐȓȈ ȕȈ 1 ȒȔȏȈ 70 ȓȍȚ. Ǫ ȚȍȟȍȕȐȍ ȗȖșȓȍȌȕȐȝ 50 ȓȍȚ Ȋ ȏȈȗȈȌȕȖȔ ǷȈȔȐȘȍ, ȗȓȖȡȈȌȤ ȖȓȍȌȍȕȍȕȐȧ Ȋ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȍ ȘȍȒȐ ǷȧȕȌȎ șȖȒȘȈȚȐȓȈșȤ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȟȍȔ ȕȈ 25-30% . Ǫ ǪȖșȚȖȟȕȖȔ ǷȈȔȐȘȍ, ȒȓȐȔȈȚ ȝȖȓȖȌȕȍȍ Ȑ ȚȈȧȕȐȍ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ Ȕȍȕȍȍ ȐȕȚȍȕșȐȊȕȖ, ȟȍȔ ȊȖ Ȋșȍȝ ȌȘțȋȐȝ ȋȖȘȕȣȝ ȘȈȑȖȕȈȝ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈ . ǹȘȍȌȕȧȧ șȒȖȘȖșȚȤ ȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ 1- 2 ȔȋȖȌ, Ȋ ȚȖ ȊȘȍȔȧ ȒȈȒ Ȋ ȕȍȒȖȚȖȘȣȝ șȓțȟȈȧȝ ȥȚȖ ȔȖȎȍȚȉȣȚȤȌȖ 100 Ȕ / ȋȖȌ. --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 31 Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ 2-1. ɈɬɫɬɭɩɥɟɧɢɟɥɟɞɧɢɤɨɜɜɜɨɫɬɨɱɧɨɦɌɹɧɶɒɚɧɟ, Ʉɵɪɝɵɡɫɬɚɧ, ɩɨɤɚɡɵɜɚɸɬ ɭɫɤɨɪɟɧɢɟɬɟɧɞɟɧɰɢɢ, ɨɫɨɛɟɧɧɨɩɨɫɥɟ 1940ɝ (Kutuzov&Shahgedanova 2009). dzȍȌȕȐȒȐ Ȋ ȋȖȘȈȝ ǺȧȕȤȀȈȕȧ Ȑ ǷȈȔȐȘȈ ȖȚșȚțȗȈȦȚ Ȑ ȚȍȔȗȣ ȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ ȊȈȘȤȐȘțȦȚ Ȋ ȏȈȊȐșȐȔȖșȚȐ ȖȚ ȘȍȋȐȖȕȈ Ȑ ȊȘȍȔȍȕȐ . DzȘțȗȕȍȑȠȐȑ ȚȍȔȗ ȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧ ȉȣȓ ȖȉȕȈȘțȎȍȕ Ȋ ǹȍȊȍȘȕȖȔ ǺȧȕȤȀȈȕȍ , ȋȌȍ ȗȓȖȡȈȌȐ ȖȓȍȌȍȕȍȕȐȧ șȖȒȘȈȚȐȓȐșȤ ȕȈ 30-40% ȊȖ ȊȚȖȘȖȑ ȗȖȓȖȊȐȕȍ 20- ȋȖ ȊȍȒȈ . ǬȈȓȤȠȍ ȕȈ ȊȖșȚȖȒ Ȑ Ȧȋ ȚȍȔȗȣ ȚȈȧȕȐȧ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ ȉȣȓȐ ȔȍȌȓȍȕȕȍȍ, ȚȍȔ ȕȍ Ȕȍȕȍȍ, țșȒȖȘȍȕȐȍȖȚșȚțȗȓȍȕȐȧȓȍȌȕȐȒȈȉȣȓȖȖȚȔȍȟȍȕȖȊȊȖșȚȖȟȕȖȔǷȈȔȐȘȍ ș 7,8% ȗȖ șȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȦ ș 1978-1990 ȌȖ 11,6% ȗȖ șȘȈȊȕȍȕȐȦ ș 1990-2001 ȗȍȘȐȖȌȖȊ. dzȍȌȕȐȒȐ ȗȖȚȍȘȧȓȐ 12,6% (0,33% / ȋȖȌ) Ȑȝ ȗȓȖȡȈȌȐȏȈȗȍȘȐȖȌ 1965- 2003 ȋȋ. ǴȈȓȣȍ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȐ țȔȍȕȤȠȐȓȐșȤ ȉȖȓȤȠȍ, ȟȍȔ șȘȍȌȕȐȍ (Figure 2-1) ( Kutuzov & Shahgedanova 2009). ǩȣȓȖ ȗȖȌșȟȐȚȈȕȖ, ȟȚȖ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȐ Ȋ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȍ ǹȣȘǬȈȘȤȐ ȗȖȚȍȘȧȓȐ 14% ȖȚ ȖȉȡȍȋȖȐȝȖȉȢȍȔȈȏȈȗȖșȓȍȌȕȐȍ 60 ȓȍȚ, Ȑ 15-40% ȖȉȢȍȔȈȉțȌȍȚȗȖȚȍȘȧȕȖ Ȋ ȉ ȓ Ȑ Ȏ Ȉ ȑ Ƞ Ȑ ȍ 4 0 ȓ ȍ Ț ( S i e g f r i e d e t a l . , 2 0 1 0 ) . Ǫ ȥ Ț Ȗ Ȕ Ȍ Ȗ Ȓ ȓ Ȉ Ȍ ȍ Ȕ ȣ ȉ ț Ȍ ȍ Ȕ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȉȖȓȍȍ ȚȖȟȕȖ șȒȖȘȖșȚȤ ȗȓȈȊȓȍȕȐȧ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ Ȋ ȉȈșșȍȑȕȍ ǨȘȈȓȤșȒȖȋȖȔȖȘȧ. ǸȈȉȖȚȈ ȗȖ ȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȦ Ȋ ȥȚȖȔ ȗȘȖȍȒȚȍ ȗȖȒȈȎȍȚ , ȟȚȖ ȗȘȖȐȏȖȑȌȍȚ ș ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈȔȐ Ȑ șȚȖȒȖȔ Ȋ ȉȓȐȎȈȑȠȐȍ 40 ȓȍȚ. Ǫ ȕȈșȚȖȧȡȍȔ ȌȖȒțȔȍȕȚȍ ȗȖȒȈȏȈȕȖ, ȟȚȖȕȍȉȖȓȤȠȐȍȓȍȌȧȕȣȍȠȈȗȒȐȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖȊǺȧȕȤȀȈȕȍȐșȟȍȏȕțȚ , Ȉ Ț Ȉ Ȓ Ȏ ȍ Ș ȍ ȏ Ȓ Ȗ ț Ȕ ȍ ȕ Ȥ Ƞ Ȑ Ț ș ȧ ȓ ȍ Ȍ ȕ Ȑ Ȓ Ȗ Ȋ Ȉ ȧ Ț Ȉ ȓ Ȉ ȧ Ȋ Ȗ Ȍ Ȉ ( F i g u r e 2 - 2 ) . Ǫ Ȉ Ȏ ȕ Ȗ ȖșȖȏȕȈȊȈȚȤ, ȟȚȖ ȗȖȚȍȗȓȍȕȐȍ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ Ȑ ȚȈȧȕȐȍ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ țȎȍ ȗȘȖȐșȝȖȌȐȚ, ȖșȖȉȍȕȕȖȗȖșȓȍ 1940 ȋȖȌȈ. ǶȟȍȊȐȌȕȖ, ȟȚȖșțȡȍșȚȊțȍȚȚȍȕȌȍȕȞȐȧțșȒȖȘȍȕȐȧ ȚȈȧȕȐȧȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊ. --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 32 Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ 2-2. Ƚɟɨɦɨɪɮɨɥɨɝɢɱɟɫɤɢɟ ɞɚɧɧɵɟ, ɤɪɚɟɜɵɟ ɦɨɪɟɧɵ ɭɤɚɡɵɜɚɸɬ ɧɚ ɛɨɥɶɲɢɣ ɪɚɡɦɟɪ ɥɟɞɧɢɤɚ, ɩɨɤɚɡɵɜɚɟɬ, ɱɬɨ ɥɟɞɧɢɤɢ ɭɠɟ ɫɭɳɟɫɬɜɟɧɧɨ ɨɬɫɬɭɩɢɥɢ ɜ ɬɟɱɟɧɢɟ ɩɨɫɥɟɞɧɢɯ 150 ɥɟɬ (ɄȺɁ / ɄȽɁɝɪɚɧɢɰɚ, ɝ. Ⱥɥɦɚɬɵ; GoogleEarth). 2 .3 . ǹȚȐȝȐȑȕȣȍ ȉȍȌșȚȊȐȧ, țșțȋțȉȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȍȔ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ ǹȖȊȘȍȔȍȕȕȈȧ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊȈȧ ȗțȓȤșȈȞȐȧ , ȗȘȖȘȣȊ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȕȣȝ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȔ ȌȈȔȉ ȗȖȌȗȘțȌȕȣȝ ȖȏȍȘ Ȑ șȍȓȍȊȣȍ ȗȖȚȖȒȐ ȊȣȏȊȈȓȐ ȉȖȓȤȠȐȍ ȒȈȚȈșȚȘȖȜȣ Ȋ ǾȍȕȚȘȈȓȤȕȖȑ ǨȏȐȐ. ǴȕȖȋȖȟȐșȓȍȕȕȣȍ ȘȍȋțȓȧȘȕȣȍ ȒȖȓȍȉȈȕȐȧ ȗȘȖȚȧȎȍȕȕȖȋȖ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȈ ȚȈȒȎȍ ȔȖȎȍȚ țȋȘȖȎȈȚȤ ȐȕȜȘȈșȚȘțȒȚțȘȍ , șȖȖȘțȎȍȕȐȧȔ Ȑ ȐȔțȡȍșȚȊț. dzȍȌȕȐȒȐ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȖȑ ȋȍȖȔȍȚȘȐȐ, ȘȈșȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȕȣȍ Ȋ ȘȈȏȓȐȟȕȣȝ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȐȟȍșȒȐȝ ȘȍȎȐȔȈȝ , ȉțȌțȚ ȗȖȘȈȏȕȖȔț ȘȍȈȋȐȘȖȊȈȚȤ ȕȈ ȐȏȔȍȕȍȕȐȧ ȒȓȐȔȈȚȈ. ǵȖȊȣȍ ȗȘȐȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȊȣȍ ȖȏȍȘȈ ȔȖȋțȚ ȉȣȚȤ ȖȉȘȈȏȖȊȈȕȣ , ȒȖȋȌȈ, ȊȖȏȔȖȎȕȖ ȓȍȌȧȕȖȍȧȌȘȖȔȖȘȍȕȣșȖȏȌȈșȚȌȈȔȉțȗȍȘȍȌȉȣșȚȘȖȖȚșȚțȗȈȦȡȐȔ ȌȖȓȐȕȕȣȔ ȓȍȌȕȐȒȖȔ ( ǼȐȋțȘȈ 2-3) . ǺȈȒȐȍ ȖȏȍȘȈ ȔȖȋțȚ ȐȔȍȚȤ ȉȖȓȤȠȖȑ ȖȉȢȍȔ ȊȖȌȣ Ȑ, ȒȖȋȌȈ ȘțȝȕȍȚ ȗȓȖȚȐȕȈ , ȔȖȎȍȚ ȗȘȖȐȏȖȑȚȐ ȒȈȚȈșȚȘȖȜȐȟȍșȒȐȑ ȗȈȊȖȌȖȒ . ǰȕȚȍȘȊȍȕȞȐȧȗȖȏȈȡȐȚȍȖȚȗȈȊȖȌȒȖȊȕȍȖȉȝȖȌȐȔȈȊȘȈȑȖȕȈȝ , ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍȉȣȓȐ ȖȗȘȍȌȍȓȍȕȕȣ ȒȈȒ ȕȈȝȖȌȧȡȐȍșȧ Ȋ țȧȏȊȐȔȖȔ ȗȖȓȖȎȍȕȐȐ ȖȚ țȡȍȘȉȈ , ȕȈȕȍșȨȕȕȖȋȖȗȈȊȖȌȒȖȔ. Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ2-3. ɉɪɢɥɟɞɧɢɤɨɜɨɟɨɡɟɪɨɉɟɬɪɨɜɜɄɵɪɝɵɡɫɬɚɧɟɫɮɨɪɦɢɪɨɜɚɥɨɫɶɜ ɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟɬɚɹɧɢɹɥɟɞɧɢɤɚ. Ȼɵɜɲɢɟ 150 ɥɟɬɋɬɚɪɵɟɤɪɚɟɜɵɟɦɨɪɟɧɵɡɚɩɪɟɞɵɞɭɳɢɟ 150 ɥɟɬɩɟɪɟɤɪɵɥɢɨɡɟɪɨ (GoogleEarth). ǹȕȍȋȖȊȈȧ ȓȐȕȐȧ ȗȖȊȣșȐȚșȧ ȕȈ 200- 300 ȔȍȚȘȖȊ Ȋ șȘȍȌȕȍȔȌȖ 2050 ( ǼȐȋțȘȈ 2-4). ǹȒȓȖȕȣȊȖȏȊȣȠȍȕȕȖșȚȍȑ, ȒȖȚȖȘȣȍȊșȍȋȌȈȉȣȓȐȗȖȒȘȣȚȣșȕȍȋȖȔȉțȌțȚ --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 33 ȗȖȌȊȍȘȋȈȚȤșȧ ȥȘȖȏȐȐ. ǺȈȧȕȐȍ ȊȍȟȕȖȑ ȔȍȘȏȓȖȚȣ Ȋ ȊȣșȖȒȐȝ ȋȖȘȈȝ șȌȍȓȈȦȚ șȒȓȖȕȣ ȕȍșȚȈȉȐȓȤȕȣȔȐ, ȐȥȚȖȉțȌȍȚȋȍȕȍȘȐȘȖȊȈȚȤȖȗȖȓȏȕȐȐșȍȓȐ ( ǼȐȋțȘȈ 2-5). ǺȈȒȐȍȉȍȌșȚȊȐȧȔȖ ȋțȚȉ ȣȚȤȖȗȈșȕ ȣȌȓ ȧȗȖ șȍȓȍȕȐȑȐȐȕȜȘȈ șȚȘțȒȚț Șȣ ȊȕȐȏȗȖȚȍȟȍȕȐȦ. ǸȍȏțȓȤȚȈȚȣȔȖȌȍȓȐȘȖȊȈȕȐȧȕȍțȒȈȏȣȊȈȦȚȕȈțȊȍȓȐȟȍȕȐȍ ȊȖȏȕȐȒȕȖȊȍȕȐȧ ȊȍșȍȕȕȐȝ ȕȈȊȖȌȕȍȕȐȑ Ȋ ȉțȌțȡȍȔ , ȕȖ Ȋ șȊȧȏȐ ș ȘȖșȚȖȔ șȍȓȍȑ, ȗȖșȓȍȌșȚȊȐȧȕȈȊȖȌȕȍȕȐȧȊȍȘȖȧȚȕȖ, ȉțȌțȚȉȖȓȍȍȒȈȚȈșȚȘȖȜȐȟȍșȒȐȔȐ, ȟȍȔȘȈȕȤȠȍ. Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ 2-4. ȼɵɫɨɤɨɟɩɪɨɫɬɪɚɧɫɬɜɟɧɧɨɟɩɨɥɨɠɟɧɢɟɤɥɢɦɚɬɢɱɟɫɤɢɯɫɧɟɝɨɜ (ɜɫɪɟɞɧɟɦ T = 0° C) ɢɟɝɨɪɨɫɬɜɪɟɡɭɥɶɬɚɬɟɢɡɦɟɧɟɧɢɹɤɥɢɦɚɬɚɜɪɚɣɨɧɟɢɫɫɥɟɞɨɜɚɧɢɹ. --- PAGE BREAK --- TA 7 5 3 2 : W ater and Adaptation I nt erventions in Cent ral and W est Asia Part I - Execut ive Sum m ary & Clim ate Change 34 Ɏɢɝɭɪɚ 2-5.Ɋɨɫɬɜɟɱɧɨɣɦɟɪɡɥɨɬɵɜɜɵɫɨɤɨɝɨɪɶɟɨɛɧɚɠɚɬɧɨɜɵɟɨɛɥɚɫɬɢɞɥɹɷɪɨɡɢɢ. ɉɨɷɬɨɦɭ, ɨɩɨɥɡɧɢɢɫɟɥɟɜɵɟɩɨɬɨɤɢɫɬɚɥɢɨɛɵɱɧɵɦɹɜɥɟɧɢɟɦɜɜɟɪɯɧɢɯɱɚɫɬɹɯ ɝɨɪɧɵɯɯɪɟɛɬɨɜ (ɋɟɜɟɪɧɵɣɉɚɤɢɫɬɚɧ;GoogleEarth). 2 .4 . References Aizen, V. & E. Aizen (2010). Diagnosis of changes i n alpine water storages and land surface degradation in Pamir m ountains and Am u Dar’ya River basin. Annual, second year progress report. University of Idaho, USA. 20 pp. Im m erzeel, W. W., L. P. H. van Beek, and M. F. P. B ierkens (2010). Clim ate change will affect the Asian water towers., Science , 328(5984), 1382- 1385, doi: 10.1126/ science.1183188. Available from : http: / / www.ncbi.nlm .nih.gov/ pubm ed/ 20538947 (Accessed 20 July 2011). 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